Called $COPPER bullish on Apr 18, 2025: $COPPER rose 20% in 3 months.
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Commodities | Stocks | FX | Macro Value + Momentum. Finding asymmetric setups at cycle lows. My investment letter ↓ Not advice.
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on QQQ by @ValueSeeker_ on X since Mar 2025: not yet scored on QQQ (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (12)
6 QQQ calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 QQQ calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @ValueSeeker_ to submit corrections.
Called $COPPER bullish on Apr 18, 2025: $COPPER rose 20% in 3 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
MAKING SENSE OF THIS MARKET SELL-OFF Nasdaq down 6.5% in a day, worries about earnings’ sustainability... Are fears justified? How could investors stay exposed while improving their portfolio’s risk-reward? Summary: • Elevated and rising earnings - Sustainable? • Valuation multiples still matter. • A simple alternative. Link in description below ↓ $VOO $IWM $RSP
View original →NASDAQ 100 - 10% LOWER As the Nasdaq 100 is selling off, re-reading the note below might be helpful to understand the situation. Indeed, one should remember that: • 2 thirds of the Nasdaq 100's return since 2010 has been due to P/E expansion rather than earning growth (responsible for the other third). • While the index (adjusted for money supply) is down 15% from its highs (10% since the note below was published), it still trades more than 3 standard deviations above its long-term trend, where its risk-reward isn't positive. Hopefully, one can be in the market without having to get exposed to big tech. Indeed, there are other segments still trading at modest valuations, such as small-caps, value, EMs, and commodity producers. While in case of crash those would most likely be shaken too, they should recover faster than overpriced assets, what allows me to sleep well. $QQQ $VOO $VTV
View original →NASDAQ 100 The tech index (adjusted for money supply) is now strongly correcting, and is almost back 3 standard deviations above its long-term trend. While its now trades lower, it remains at an elevated level where its risk-reward stays negative. Meanwhile, some may have noticed that its monthly MACD has now turned negative. As a result, downward pressures may as a result continue for a while. $QQQ
View original →ENERGY SPIKING, TECH TANKING... INVESTING FOR THE NEXT DECADE Extract from this weekend's article: "Growth stock, whose best proxy seems to be $QQQ , benefited from the best conditions since 2010: • Falling interest rates (with a bottom in 2020) justifying higher valuation multiples (P/E). • Rising earnings thanks to scalable, asset light business models (E of P/E). So, as stock prices could be seen as P/E * E seeing both sides of the equation rise triggered a bull market rarely seen before, with the exception of the DotCom Bubble." Link below ↓ $XLE $TLT
View original →NASDAQ 100 - CYCLE HIGH? While most passive investors pour money into Tech ETFs, hoping to repeat the 2010-2025 performance, might be time to remind that: • Equity factors, such as growth vs. value, follow cycles. • 2 thirds of the Nasdaq 100's return since 2010 have been due to P/E expansion rather than earning growth (responsible for the other third). In addition, the Nasdaq 100 (adjusted for money supply) has now reached 4σ above its long-term trend while the 2000's top happened at +5σ, and you get an idea of its current risk-reward in a rising rate environment. So, do I short the Nasdaq? No, because overpriced does not mean an asset will go down tomorrow. Do I stay away from it? Yes. Do I go to cash? No. Thankfully, many segments of the market aren't expensive at the moment (value, small-cap, most commodities) $QQQ $VOO $VTV
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