Called $BTC bullish on Jun 25, 2025: $BTC rose 15% in 3 months.
View call →
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 34 directional calls by @onchained on CryptoQuant since Mar 2023: tracked, not yet ranked (below the accuracy-scoring baseline) (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Called $BTC bullish on Jun 25, 2025: $BTC rose 15% in 3 months.
View call →⚡️ On-Chain Update (25 June 2025)
Two weeks ago I called the STH-Realized Price the “fault line” to watch. It’s still doing its job—here’s what the tape now says. I. The metric refresher STH Realized Price (STH-RP) = break-even for coins < 155 days old—where short-term conviction flips to fear. II. Why this slow grind higher matters Psychology upgrade: STH-RP is inching toward six figures. Each uptick hardens $100 k as the “fair value” floor in the collective psyche. Where the line sits now? - Spot: ≈ $106.4 k - Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP): $98 k - Premium (Spot ÷ STH-RP − 1): +7.2 %. - Long-Term Holder Realized Price (LTH-RP): $32.0 k (unchanged trend). III. Why this creeping blue curve keeps mattering • Price Memory – Every ~$500 uptick in STH-RP resets the “new buyers’ comfort floor.” It’s now flirting with six-figure territory; the crowd’s mental stop-loss rises with it. • Dynamic Support – Look at the chart: two tags of the blue line in the last 10 days, two sharp bounces. That’s classic bull-phase structure; sellers dry up the moment we kiss cost-basis. • Risk Compression – Shrinking premium = less overheated froth. In prior cycles, a <10 % gap has preceded the next leg up once open-interest rebuilds. • Veteran Supply Lock-Up – LTH-RP is still 3× lower than spot; coins in cold storage remain “strong hands” (no incentive to dump). Supply overhang simply isn’t there. TL;DR The blue line is climbing relentlessly; as long as BTC lives above it, the prevailing tide is still higher-lows, higher-highs. Lose it on a daily close, and we get our first real gut-check since April—otherwise the bull engine is merely cooling its cylinders.  
View original →🚨 New-whale accumulation watch 🚨
A fresh cohort of Bitcoin whales—wallet clusters holding ≥ 1 000 BTC with an average coin age under six months—has been stacking at a record pace. 🔎 Indicator in focus: Supply Held by New-Whales This filter isolates new balance-sheet decisions by ignoring long-dormant cold wallets. Key findings (1 Mar → 4 Jun 2025): • Holdings doubled: from ~500 k BTC to ~1.1 M BTC (+600 k BTC / US $63 B). • Supply share jumped: 2.5 % → 5.6 % of total BTC circulating supply (+3.1 pp), the equivalent of ten months of mining output removed from circulation. Why it matters? 1️⃣ Fresh conviction: Young coin age shows these positions were built recently—this is new money, not shuffled legacy coins. 2️⃣ Supply squeeze: Rapid absorption of newly minted BTC tightens float and historically precedes periods of heightened upside volatility. 3️⃣ Sentiment signal: Aggressive, well-capitalised buyers are positioning ahead of the next macro catalyst (rate-cut cycle, ETF inflows, etc.). What to monitor next 👀 🏦 Exchange inflows/outflows from this cohort for the first hint of profit-taking. 📊 ETF creation basket activity to confirm institutional demand. 🔄 Derivatives funding vs whale flows for early divergence signals. The tape doesn’t lie: when young whales load up, market structure can change fast. Stay laser-focused.  
View original →Bitcoin Approaches Critical Realized Price Threshold
The chart below presents the Bitcoin Realized Price Spectrum, capturing the average on-chain acquisition costs of UTXOs segmented by holding durations. As of now, Bitcoin’s spot price is converging around the 2-Year Realized Price, which represents the average cost basis of all UTXOs last moved within the past two years. This dynamic threshold acts as a key psychological and structural support level—often reflecting the cost basis of market participants who entered during prior bullish or early-cycle phases. What’s particularly noteworthy is that BTC has remained consistently above this 2Y Realized Price since October 2023, indicating sustained investor confidence and the potential formation of a long-term value floor. If the price continues to hold or bounce off this level, it may signal a reinforcing base of capital inflows, strengthening the case for continued upward momentum.   
View original →📉 Short-Term Capitulation Meets Long-Term Conviction: A Structural Shift in Bitcoin Ownership
Over the past week, Bitcoin has experienced a ~15% drawdown, sliding from ~$88,000 to ~$74,400. While price action often captures headlines, the real story lies beneath the surface, in the structural behavior of capital held by different market cohorts. 🔍 Key On-Chain Observations On April 7th, we witnessed a pivotal moment: Short-Term Holders (STH) experienced a $10 billion decline in realized price, likely reflecting a transition of more than $9 billion to Long-Term Holders (LTH) and less than $1 billion in realized losses. Their largest single-day realized cap decrease in this cycle. In parallel, Long-Term Holders (LTH) increased their realized cap by $9.7 billion, indicating large-scale accumulation. 📊 This is not merely a coincidence: this is the market transferring coins from weak to strong hands. The narrative continued into April 8th: - STH losses slowed significantly (–$693 million), showing signs of capitulation exhaustion. - LTHs continued accumulating, adding $1.13 billion to their cost basis—despite sideways price action. 🧠 Interpretation This structural divergence between STHs and LTHs is significant: Short-term investors are exiting in panic: locking in losses. - Long-term investors are stepping in with conviction: buying weakness and absorbing supply. - This behavior has historically marked the late stages of corrections or the early phase of recovery. 📐 Implications for Market Structure - The STH cohort is shedding supply: reducing near-term overhead resistance. - The LTH cohort is strengthening its hold: a sign of growing belief in long-term upside.    
View original →Silent Whales Are Steadily Devouring the Supply 🧠
Accumulating addresses continued buying even as prices reached new all-time highs. The realized cap chart shows accumulating entities were willing to deploy significant capital at these elevated prices. The relationship between these two charts reveals a profound insight: Realized cap increased from ~$20B to ~$160B between 2023-2025 BTC supply held increased from ~800K to ~3M BTC in the same period. This indicates the average acquisition price per bitcoin for accumulating addresses rose substantially, yet accumulation accelerated rather than slowed. A strong evidence of high-conviction buying regardless of price increases. Perhaps the most telling signal is the widening gap between retail and whale realized capitalization in late 2024: - Larger holders significantly accelerated their dollar-cost averaging at higher prices. - While retail accumulation continued growing, it couldn't match the capital deployment of larger entities. - This realized cap divergence is a classic on-chain signal of smart money positioning ahead of potential supply shocks in the coming market cycle. Market Implications: 1. Supply-Side Pressure The accelerating removal of BTC from circulating supply into non-selling addresses creates mounting supply-side pressure that could become more apparent following periods of market volatility. 2. Conviction Through Volatility The consistent accumulation through both bear and bull phases demonstrates remarkable holder conviction regardless of short-term price action. 3. Future Supply Dynamics If these accumulation trends continue, an increasingly significant portion of Bitcoin's fixed supply will be held by entities demonstrating long-term holding behavior, potentially amplifying the impact of future supply shocks.   
View original →