cryptoavails

Those who experienced the 2021 bull run remember it well. The rally started when Tesla announced its Bitcoin purchase and acceptance of BTC as a payment method, but it ended abruptly with Elon Musk’s statement that they would stop accepting Bitcoin due to “environmental concerns.” The downturn deepened further when news broke that Tesla had sold its Bitcoin holdings. Today, Trump has taken the stage instead of Elon Musk. His recent statements about a “crypto reserve” could ignite a new rally. However, it’s also possible that he might later reverse the sentiment with comments like, “We’ve paid off all our debts, we no longer need crypto.” That’s exactly his style. The actors change, but the cycles remain the same — only the timing shifts. From now on, our eyes will be on the charts, and our ears on Trump’s critical statements. 

Short-term investors have started selling at a loss following the recent market movements.  

Bybit's ETH reserves continue to increase. There could be two reasons for this: either Bybit is accumulating ETH from the market, or users are transferring ETH to the exchange as confidence is restored. Looking at the price action, the first option seems more likely.  

According to recent data, Bitcoin reserves on spot exchanges continue to decline rapidly, reaching their lowest levels in recent years. As seen in the chart, exchange reserves increased from 2020 to 2022 but entered a sharp downtrend after 2022. During this period, investors have been withdrawing their BTC from exchanges and transferring them to cold wallets, reinforcing a long-term holding trend. The decrease in exchange reserves restricts the circulating supply in the market, potentially creating upward pressure on price. If demand remains strong, low supply conditions could support price increases. Considering Bitcoin’s upward trend in 2024 and 2025, this reserve decline suggests that the supply-demand balance is shifting in favor of the bulls. The withdrawal of Bitcoin supply from exchanges also raises the possibility of a supply shock. If demand remains stable or increases, the reduced amount of Bitcoin available for trading on exchanges could push prices higher. Historically, similar reserve declines have resulted in significant price surges. The current situation could be a strong indicator of an impending supply shock, further supporting Bitcoin’s upward price movement.  

In this analysis, we will examine the total reserve amount of Ethereum on spot exchanges and compare it with its price movements. Historical Trend of Reserves 2017-2018 Bull Run: Ethereum reserves increased during the 2017-2018 bull market, reaching a peak in early 2018. 2020-2021 DeFi Effect: The rapid growth of the DeFi ecosystem and the rising interest in Ethereum-based projects led to a significant increase in reserves during this period. Decline After 2021: At the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, reserves saw a sharp decline, which can be associated with large withdrawals from exchanges. 2023 and Beyond: In 2023, Ethereum reserve levels dropped to bottom levels, and by 2024, these low levels became persistent. This signals the potential for supply shortages in the market. Reserve and Price Relationship The decline in reserves typically indicates that market participants prefer to withdraw their Ethereum holdings from exchanges for long-term storage. From 2022 onwards, as reserves decreased, Ethereum’s price began trading at higher levels. This relationship suggests that low reserve levels may exert upward pressure on prices. Current Status and Conclusion As of 2024 and beyond, Ethereum reserves remain fixed at bottom levels. These low reserve levels indicate a limited supply of Ethereum on exchanges, which could create potential upward pressure on prices. In the coming period, this situation is likely to trigger a new upward trend in Ethereum’s price.  

Since the second half of 2023, a notable decline in miner reserves has been observed. Starting from 1.845 million BTC, these reserves have decreased to approximately 1.808 million BTC as of January 2025. During this period, Bitcoin’s price, despite initially following a volatile pattern, has been in an overall upward trend, currently trading around $103,000. When miners increase their reserves, it typically indicates an accumulation trend, reducing selling pressure. Conversely, a decline in reserves suggests that miners are opting to sell their Bitcoin holdings. This behavior may be driven by rising operational costs or the intent to realize profits during high-price periods. The divergence illustrated in the chart shows that despite the decline in miner reserves, Bitcoin’s price continues to rise. This suggests that other market participants (such as retail and institutional investors) have maintained a strong buying demand, offsetting the selling activity from miners. Should reserves decrease further, the selling pressure from miners may lessen, potentially supporting additional price increases. As Bitcoin approaches a new ATH, this data becomes particularly valuable for analyzing market dynamics.  

"Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow - Spent Output Age Bands" is a metric that analyzes the amount of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges. This data shows the age bands of spent outputs being sent to exchanges. In other words, it provides information about how long the Bitcoins have been inactive and which age bands of coins are being sent to exchanges. This is used to understand market participants' tendencies to sell and predict potential price movements. Short-term age bands (e.g., 0d ~ 1w) typically represent active traders. Heavy inflows observed in these groups usually indicate an increase in market volatility or that traders intend to capitalize on price movements. Significant increases in short-term inflows are often seen during bull markets, reflecting intensified profit-taking and speculative movements. However, an increase in these inflows during market downturns can indicate panic-driven sales and heightened selling pressure on the market. Long-term age bands (e.g., 6m ~ 12m and above) represent a different dynamic. When HODLers (those who buy and hold for a long time) send Bitcoin to exchanges, it often occurs during market peaks or after a prolonged downtrend. This usually signals that investors want to liquidate their assets and can mark turning points in the market. In conclusion, this chart is a crucial tool for understanding Bitcoin investor behavior and analyzing market cycles. Monitoring inflows based on age bands is vital for identifying potential risks and opportunities in the market. Particularly, increased activity from long-term investors should signal that a significant change in the market could be underway. This data serves as a valuable guide for both individual and institutional investors.  

There has been a $BTC outflow from spot exchanges in the last few hours. Some of these Bitcoins are being moved to derivatives, while others are being transferred to cold wallets. This could be an indication of a reduction in selling pressure.  

Bitcoin: Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is a metric that shows whether long-term Bitcoin holders (usually those holding for more than 155 days) are selling at a profit or a loss. With this metric, we can analyze the impact of long-term investors on the market. The chart shows the SOPR ratio of Bitcoin’s long-term holders (purple line) and price movements (white line). SOPR > 1 generally indicates that sales are made at a profit, while SOPR < 1 shows sales at a loss. What do we see on the chart? Early 2022: The SOPR value is high and volatile. This indicates that profit-taking is intense. However, prices are in decline, reflecting the impact of selling pressure during this period. Late 2022 and Early 2023: The SOPR is generally below 1, with prices moving sideways and showing signs of recovery. This suggests that long-term investors were selling at a loss, indicating signs of capitulation. Mid-2023 and Beyond: The SOPR value is gradually moving closer to or above 1. This shows that investors are starting to sell profitably, with growing confidence in the market, supporting bullish sentiment. Towards 2024: As the price rises, the SOPR is generally above 1. This indicates that long-term investors are in profit and that there is no significant selling pressure as prices rise. Throughout 2024: With Bitcoin prices rising, the SOPR remains above 1. This shows that long-term investors continue to sell at a profit and that selling pressure remains low as prices increase. The data continues to support bullish sentiment. In summary, while long-term investors were selling at a loss in 2022, a recovery was seen in 2023 and beyond. The stability of the SOPR above 1 shows that the market is open to growth, reflecting the confidence of those accumulating Bitcoin. We will continue to make the most of this metric in our long-term analyses.  

Ethereum’s net flow movements on spot exchanges play a critical role in understanding its price dynamics. Net flows represent the total amount of Ethereum entering and exiting exchanges. Net outflows typically indicate that ETH is being transferred to cold wallets, reducing selling pressure—this is considered a positive signal for the price. Conversely, an increase in net inflows generally suggests that investors are preparing to sell their ETH, creating downward pressure on the price. Net Flow and Price Movements in 2022 In early 2022, Ethereum’s price dropped from $4,000 to $1,000, with net inflows dominating. This reflected increased selling pressure, leading to the price decline. However, from July 2022 onwards, net outflows became dominant, and Ethereum’s price began its recovery phase. Conditions for ETH Price Growth To maintain its upward trend, Ethereum needs sustained net outflows. Net outflows reduce the supply of ETH on exchanges, creating a market balance in favor of demand. This dynamic supports upward pressure on the price. However, sustainability is crucial—sudden net inflows can lead to short-term selling pressure, weakening the trend. Conclusion and Its Link to Altcoin Season Ethereum’s ability to sustain net outflows from spot exchanges and tighten supply will support its price growth in the medium and long term. Furthermore, Ethereum’s strong performance is essential for the anticipated altcoin season. ETH’s movements will significantly influence the future performance of altcoins. Thus, Ethereum’s net flow data on spot exchanges is a critical indicator that investors should closely monitor.