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Macro Backdrop: The "Goldilocks" Illusion Remains on the Table Today's JOLTS data, coming in slightly below expectations, provided a "not too hot, not too cold" signal for the markets. This creates a positive environment for risk assets. Additionally, the better than expected Consumer Confidence data signals a reversal after a 6 month decline, showing growing investor optimism about the future. On-Chain Analysis: Even as the price approaches the $120,000 level, we are not seeing a massive profit realization event on the Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) chart that could signal a top. This is a very positive sign. It means investors are not rushing to take profits, showing strong conviction that the move will continue. The Adjusted SOPR metric remains below euphoric levels considered dangerous, such as 1.10. This is one of the most important signals indicating that the rally is sustainable and has more room to run before overheating. Solid Supports (Realized Price): In potential pullbacks, the cost bases of short-term investors at the ~$115.7K and ~$105K levels are ready to act as strong, tested support zones.    

Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) has been below 1 for an extended period, showing that many investors continue to sell at a loss. Historically, this kind of behavior often signals market bottoms, as panic selling and capitulation tend to mark the end of downtrends. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index is showing signs of recovery despite recent ETF outflows and the typical weekend slowdown. Although this doesn’t confirm strong institutional buying yet, it does indicate a clear easing in selling pressure. Additionally, the 50-hour moving average crossing above the 170-hour moving average suggests a possible shift toward short-term bullish momentum. With selling pressure slowing and potential bottoming signals emerging, key resistance levels to watch in the coming days are $90,000 and $92,500. Keeping an eye on further recovery in aSOPR and the Coinbase Premium Index will be crucial for Bitcoin’s next move.    

The strong buying interest reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index underscores the market’s upward potential, with the crossover of SMA14 and SMA60 signaling the possibility of building momentum. Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with gold and the S&P 500 suggests a synchronized upward trend could emerge if the market shifts into a “risk-on” mode. Powell’s recent remarks on the limited effect of strong employment on inflation may provide stability to market expectations. If today’s employment data aligns with forecasts and avoids major surprises, the positive market sentiment is likely to persist.   

Despite the high volatility and significant decline, the spot market did not exhibit heavy selling pressure. This behavior may indicate a generally positive sentiment among market participants, signaling resilience and potential bullish momentum as investors maintain confidence in the broader market trajectory.   

Coinbase data shows strong buyer support, with a premium reflecting solid demand. Negative funding rates, driven by $2B in long liquidations, add to the bullish case. Bitcoin’s upward momentum remains likely as long as USDT dominance stays below 4.65%, signaling continued market confidence and potential for further recovery.   

ETH recorded its first red candle of the year today, primarily driven by growing expectations that the Fed will skip a rate cut in its January 29 decision. While there have been limited sell-offs aimed at cutting losses, it’s fair to say that there is no general panic in the market. ETH inflows into exchanges remain restricted. On the Coinbase front, while today’s drop created a weaker picture, a clear buying momentum has emerged. In this case, the strong ETF data released earlier this week played a significant role. If tonight’s ETF data leads to renewed buying pressure on Coinbase, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the trend turn upward again. However, while the overall sentiment isn’t pessimistic, keeping risks at a minimum until Trump’s inauguration would be a more prudent strategy.    

Recent on-chain data reveals a notable trend: while significant amounts of Tether (USDT) are exiting exchanges, a large inflow of Bitcoin (BTC) (>15K) has been observed entering exchanges. Additionally, despite the recent sharp price drop, spot markets are seeing sustained selling pressure. This combination of factors may indicate a potential for further short-term downside in Bitcoin’s price. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, there doesn’t appear to be a catalyst that would necessitate a prolonged bearish trend after this short-term correction.    

1️⃣ Coinbase Premium Index: In the negative zone, increasing selling pressure. 2️⃣ aSOPR: Sudden spikes in profit-taking observed. It’s crucial for the ETF trend to remain intact! Tonight’s data will be pivotal for determining the market’s direction.   

As Bitcoin’s recent price correction brought funding rates back to normal levels, an intriguing market dynamic has emerged. Despite the now “cheaper” Bitcoin, demand from the futures market remains muted. This contrasts sharply with the resilience shown in the spot market, where investors have largely refrained from liquidating their positions. This divergence paints a fascinating picture of market sentiment. Spot holders are demonstrating strong confidence, with panic selling seeming unlikely unless the price drops below the critical $89,000 threshold. Meanwhile, a potential support zone is forming between $90,000 and $93,000, which could prove crucial for price stabilization or even a rebound.    

Since US election on November 5, we observed an increase in the volume of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges by active whale addresses. However, the Adjusted SOPR metric does not yet indicate significant profit-taking activity. While the large inflow of Bitcoin suggests a potential for short-term selling pressure, the fact that these assets have not been immediately sold implies they may be intended for other purposes, such as hedging, OTC transactions, or collateral. This behavior reflects a "wait-and-see strategy" being employed by whales at the moment. In conclusion, although there is currently no immediate selling pressure, the rising inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges highlights a potential risk of future sell-offs. As such, these movements should be closely monitored to anticipate any possible market impact.