Bitcoin's Silent Strength: Why the Rally is Sustainable?

Macro Backdrop: The "Goldilocks" Illusion Remains on the Table Today's JOLTS data, coming in slightly below expectations, provided a "not too hot, not too cold" signal for the markets. This creates a positive environment for risk assets. Additionally, the better than expected Consumer Confidence data signals a reversal after a 6 month decline, showing growing investor optimism about the future. On-Chain Analysis: Even as the price approaches the $120,000 level, we are not seeing a massive profit realization event on the Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) chart that could signal a top. This is a very positive sign. It means investors are not rushing to take profits, showing strong conviction that the move will continue. The Adjusted SOPR metric remains below euphoric levels considered dangerous, such as 1.10. This is one of the most important signals indicating that the rally is sustainable and has more room to run before overheating. Solid Supports (Realized Price): In potential pullbacks, the cost bases of short-term investors at the ~$115.7K and ~$105K levels are ready to act as strong, tested support zones.    

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3/2/2025 on

Are Bitcoin Investors Capitulating? aSOPR and Coinbase Premium Index Flash Potential Bottom Signal

Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) has been below 1 for an extended period, showing that many investors continue to sell at a loss. Historically, this kind of behavior often signals market bottoms, as panic selling and capitulation tend to mark the end of downtrends. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index is showing signs of recovery despite recent ETF outflows and the typical weekend slowdown. Although this doesn’t confirm strong institutional buying yet, it does indicate a clear easing in selling pressure. Additionally, the 50-hour moving average crossing above the 170-hour moving average suggests a possible shift toward short-term bullish momentum. With selling pressure slowing and potential bottoming signals emerging, key resistance levels to watch in the coming days are $90,000 and $92,500. Keeping an eye on further recovery in aSOPR and the Coinbase Premium Index will be crucial for Bitcoin’s next move.    

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2/7/2025 on

Breakout Ahead?

The strong buying interest reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index underscores the market’s upward potential, with the crossover of SMA14 and SMA60 signaling the possibility of building momentum. Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with gold and the S&P 500 suggests a synchronized upward trend could emerge if the market shifts into a “risk-on” mode. Powell’s recent remarks on the limited effect of strong employment on inflation may provide stability to market expectations. If today’s employment data aligns with forecasts and avoids major surprises, the positive market sentiment is likely to persist.   

BTCBitcoinBullish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

2/3/2025 on

Spot Resilience Amid Volatility

Despite the high volatility and significant decline, the spot market did not exhibit heavy selling pressure. This behavior may indicate a generally positive sentiment among market participants, signaling resilience and potential bullish momentum as investors maintain confidence in the broader market trajectory.   

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2/3/2025 on

Bitcoin’s Comeback: Buyers Dominate as Longs Liquidate

Coinbase data shows strong buyer support, with a premium reflecting solid demand. Negative funding rates, driven by $2B in long liquidations, add to the bullish case. Bitcoin’s upward momentum remains likely as long as USDT dominance stays below 4.65%, signaling continued market confidence and potential for further recovery.