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Foot Guns Weekly - Historically Bullish Meets Risk Free Rate
Record ETF inflows and Q4 seasonality support buying BTC dips, though 5% yields cap enthusiasm.
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Foot Guns Weekly - Historically Bullish Meets Risk Free Rate
Record ETF inflows and Q4 seasonality support buying BTC dips, though 5% yields cap enthusiasm.
View original →Foot Guns Weekly - Range-Bound Until Warsh Speaks
"The entrance strategy is actually more important than the exit strategy." 📊 BTC OUTLOOK — THIS WEEK Tuesday is the whole game. FOMC at 2 PM ET — rate hike odds sitting at ~70% after hot PPI. BTC is trading at $78K, pinned below SMA20 ($78,448) and the $80K ceiling that's failed twice now. If Warsh hikes and signals more, the dollar spikes, yields rip, BTC dumps — probably tests $75K or lower. If he holds or hikes with dovish guidance ("this is the last one"), you could see a relief rally back through $80K same day. The press conference matters more than the actual number. 📎 Fed odds surged to 69.8% after PPI The $77K floor is load-bearing. Yahoo Finance flagged it clearly: below $77,057 and the next real support is $62K. That's not a typo — the entire August breakout structure sits on that level. BTC has held it every test so far but it's being tested again right now. ETF outflows were $462M Friday — institutions are not adding here, they're trimming. A hike that breaks $77K could get ugly fast. 📎 Yahoo: $77K is the floor, $62K is the void Base case for September: $75K–$82K range, FOMC decides direction. CoinDCX has September target at $82K — that's only achievable if Warsh punts or the guidance is soft. F&G at 57 (near neutral) tells you the market is already nervous. Volume on the $81K breakout last week was weak. This is not a momentum setup — it's event-driven binary. Don't size like it's trending. ─── 🗓 TRADING PLAN — REST OF SEPTEMBER • Now → Tue 2 PM: Reduce leverage. This is not the week to be a hero. $77K–$79K chop is the range. No edge here, sit on hands. • Tue 2 PM — HIKE + hawkish: Expect dump to $75K–$76K. If SMA50 ($71K) holds on a daily close, that's the accumulation zone — add there, not during the panic. • Tue 2 PM — HOLD + dovish guidance: $80K tests immediately. If you see a clean hourly close above $80,500, that's a real breakout entry. Trail stop at $78K. • Sep 18–30: Post-FOMC drift. Historically BTC consolidates 1–2 weeks after a rate event. Don't chase. Let it settle and re-enter on a confirmed trend. • Floor to defend: $77,057. Break of that on daily close = step aside. The void to $62K is not a trade — it's a trap. • Long-only, low leverage, long timeframe. September is historically BTC's worst month. You survive September, you win Q4. 📅 MACRO CALENDAR — WEEK OF SEP 14 • Mon Sep 15 — Empire State Manufacturing, 8:30 AM ET • Tue Sep 16 — Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET | FOMC Decision 2:00 PM ET | Warsh press conference 2:30 PM ET • Wed Sep 17 — Housing Starts, Industrial Production, 8:30 AM ET • Thu Sep 18 — Jobless Claims, Philly Fed 8:30 AM ET • Fri Sep 19 — No major releases — digest week 📎 FOMC schedule | Full calendar ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📰 FOOT GUNS - NEWS & COLOR ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📰 CRYPTO HEADLINES 🔹 CLARITY Act cloture vote: 2:15 PM ET today — Needs 60 Senate votes to proceed. White House says miss this window = bill dies in 2026. 🔹 BTC volatile ahead of Fed + CLARITY double-header — $78K holding but both catalysts land this week. Event-driven binary. 🔹 Hike odds hit 87.3% — FedWatch — CME futures now pricing near-certain 25bps hike Wednesday. Market breadth deteriorating. 🔹 CLARITY Act revised: 630 pages, 100+ changes — "Decentralized-in-name-only" protocols targeted for SEC/CFTC registration. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🏚️ BANKRUPTCIES & FORECLOSURES 🔹 airBaltic files Ch.11 — Sep 14 — 89% state-owned Latvian carrier files in NYC. Iran war-driven fuel crisis the trigger. Ops continue. 🔹 airBaltic: €350M DIP, Latvia backstopping — Government holding controlling stake, participating in restructuring. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 MACRO HOT TAKES 🔹 Hike odds: 87.3% as of this morning — Three July dissenters already wanted 25bps. Wednesday is live. 🔹 3 FOMC members dissented in July — wanted hike then — Hawks have the votes. Dot plot will tell us how many more. 🔹 Warsh Jackson Hole remarks doubled hike probability overnight — From 33% to 66% in 24hrs after his speech. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💬 QUOTE OF
View original →Foot Guns Weekly - The Run Lost Steam
"Every battle is won before it is fought." 📅 BTC WEEK AHEAD — Sep 1–5 The run lost steam at $80K • BTC touched $81,347 last week then pulled back ~4% — classic rejection at a round number with no clean daily close above • August closes at ~$78K, which is a decent month (+30% from $60K summer lows) but bulls need a September breakout to confirm continuation • F&G dropped from 74 → 62 in days — the crowd cooled off fast when momentum stalled • 📎 Bitcoin faces resistance as monthly close below $80K approaches Macro is the real boss this week • Markets are now pricing a September Fed rate hike — that's the new risk • Friday's NFP jobs report is the binary event: soft print = hike stays off table, BTC breathes; hot print = dollar surges, BTC gets hit • Fed Chair Warsh already signaled he wants inflation "clearly lower" before pivoting — he's not blinking • PCE held steady in July = still no all-clear on inflation • 📎 How job data this week impacts crypto Saylor just re-entered — that matters • Strategy bought 4,603 BTC for $370M today, first purchase since June 22 — Saylor literally posted "We're Back" on Sunday before announcing • Average buy price ~$80,300 — he's buying the exact level the market rejected, which is either genius conviction or a tell on where he thinks it goes • Holdings now 845,050 BTC, zero net leverage, $1.61B cash — this isn't a desperate bet, it's a signal • 📎 Strategy scoops $370M of Bitcoin | Benzinga Stella's take: SMA50 at $67K is a long way down — structure intact. The $80K wall is the only thing standing between here and price discovery. Saylor buying it is a bid, not a guarantee. Watch NFP Friday like a hawk. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📰 CRYPTO HEADLINES 🔹 Live updates: Bitcoin holds $78,000 as yen breaks 160 and rate-hike bets lift… — Bitcoin is holding just under $78,000 as August closes. 🔹 Bitcoin's New Quantum Defenses, 18.9M SOL Cancelled: Hodler's Digest — Onchain data shows that StarkWSare spent a 10,000-satoshi output protected by Levy's Quantum Safe Bitcoin (QSB) scheme. 🔹 Russia's largest bank forecasts $46 billion in first-year crypto exchange… — separate Friday TASS report, Popov said the bank plans to issue loans secured by bitcoin, ether and USDT once they are approved by the central bank ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🏚️ BANKRUPTCIES & FORECLOSURES 🔹 48-Year-Old Physician-Owned Pennsylvania Medical Group Files for Chapter 11… — Pottstown Medical Specialists, Inc., a Pottstown, PA-based multi-specialty physician group, enters bankruptcy while listing over 100 creditors. 🔹 'First Real Test': Australia Fiasco Has Private Credit on Edge — Australian private credit funds are trying to contain panic among investors, after the collapse of property developer Bathla Group sparked fears that… 🔹 Cardenas wants TIFs redirected, housing sped up if elected mayor — A committee titled 'Cardenas4Chicago' has raised $31,943 for his mayoral run. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 MACRO HOT TAKES 🔹 Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin on the Surprisingly Resilient Real Economy — Traders expect a rate hike given the hawkish hints littered in his speech… 🔹 Economy — The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation tracker, held steady in July. 🔹 Stock Market Highlights Today: Sensex closes over 300 points down, Nifty ends… — Indian markets are likely to take cues from Q1 FY27 GDP data due on August 31. 🔹 Weekly Update - by Bryan P. Cutsinger — Real output growth was unchanged at an annualized rate of 1.5 percent. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Key events this week: ISM Manufacturing (Thu), Jobs Report (Sat). For BTC specifically: both SMAs are overhead resistance right now. Bulls need a clean daily close above SMA50 to shift the structure. Until that prints, treat rallies as range, not breakout. 💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY "Every battle is won before it is fought." — Sun Tzu
View original →Foot Guns Weekly - The Family Fight Goes To The Mountains
Crypto has decoupled from equities; momentum and institutional flows favor longs, with ETH most asymmetric.
View original →Foot Guns Weekly - The Second Half Of August
"Good traders think in terms of the next thousand trades, not the next one." SECOND HALF OF AUGUST — FOOTGUNS’ OUTLOOK BTC is pinned to SMA50 right now and has been for days. That's not a buy signal — that's a coin flip. Spot ETF flows went negative for the year before stabilizing, and until they turn consistently green again, any rally is suspect. The fear narrative is saturated (F&G at 31), which historically means we're closer to a bottom than a top — but "closer to a bottom" can still mean weeks of chop. I'm not shorting BTC. I'm also not loading up here. The trade is: wait for a clean daily close above $63,650 with conviction, then size in. Anything below that is noise. What actually matters this week (and next): — Wed Aug 19 : FOMC minutes from the July meeting. Three Fed members voted to cut and got outvoted. Watch how much internal dissent makes it into the language — that gap between the hawks and the doves is where September expectations get priced. — Tue Aug 26 : PCE + Q2 GDP revision drops on the same day. This is the one. PCE is what the Fed actually uses. If it comes in soft, September cut is basically locked and crypto should rip. Hot print = pain. — Aug 27–29 : Jackson Hole. Dovish tone = BTC pops. Hawkish surprise = everything sells off hard. Don't try to predict it — position ahead of PCE, react at Jackson Hole. The window that matters most is Aug 26–29. Stay patient until then. PRICES BTC: $63,426 (+0.7% 24h) ETH: $1,896 (+0.9% 24h) Global MCap: $2.26T | BTC Dom: 56.2% SENTIMENT Fear & Greed: 31 - 😨 FEAR ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📐 KEY LEVELS (BTC) ⬆️ SMA20: $63,764 [R] ⬆️ SMA50: $63,648 [R] ⬆️ 7d High: $64,434 [R] ⬇️ 7d Low: $62,488 [S] 🔴 Week streak: 1x red | current week: +1.1% ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌐 MACRO MARKETS DXY: 99.41 (-0.26%) | 10Y: 4.706% (+0.21%) Gold: $4444 (+1.46%) | SPX: $7788 (+0.03%) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 BTC ETF FLOWS 🔴 Net outflow: $390M Source: cryptobriefing.com ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⭐️ STELLA'S READ $63,426 — pinned to SMA50 ($63,648). Coiling. Either breaks higher with conviction or gets rejected again. Weekly range: $1,946. F&G 31 — market's scared but not broken. Sentiment floor tends to hold at these levels. Gold +1.5% — real money hedging real uncertainty. Active catalysts: Middle East, ETF flows, exploit/hack, FOMC. SMA50 at $63,648 is the line. Close above it = long. Below it = wait. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🗓 WEEK AHEAD Key events this week: FOMC Minutes (Wed), Jobless Claims (Fri), Middle East tensions, Strait of Hormuz. For BTC specifically: both SMAs are overhead resistance right now. Bulls need a clean daily close above SMA50 to shift the structure. Until that prints, treat rallies as range, not breakout. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📰 CRYPTO HEADLINES 🔹 Bitcoin (BTC) price tracks equity bounce while $390 million ETF outflow week… — That was the largest weekly withdrawal from U.S. 🔹 Live updates: Bitcoin flat near $63,500; lapsing US-Iran ceasefire revives the… — Bitcoin near $63,500 looks like more summer torpor, capped below $64,000 and holding above the low-$60,000s, but the flow picture underneath has… 🔹 Strategy raises $334 million, adds $150 million to USD reserve — The company made no bitcoin purchases or sales, leaving its holdings at 840,447 BTC, while its $4.8 billion USD reserve now covers 2.8 years of… 🔹 BTC, ETH price news: Bitcoin tops $64,000 on Monday as traders await FOMC… — Bitcoin crossed $64,000 in Asian morning hours Monday, up half a percent on the day but down almost 3% over the week, as a softer dollar and fading… ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🏚️ BANKRUPTCIES & FORECLOSURES 🔹 Major ice cream brand seeks Chapter 11 bankruptcy after lawsuit — Rebel Creamery lost a $23.8 million judgment in a trademark lawsuit. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 MACRO HOT TAKES 🔹 Goldman Says Markets Too Hawkish on Betting Fed Will Hike Rates — Market bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are still too aggressive given that inflation is cooling, according to Goldman. 🔹 Dollar Extends Slide as
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