YHRW80

It sees Coin are withdrawn out of exchanges into a weekend (less liquid) order books. Less liquidity usually evolves to more volatility, carful with you leverage positions.  

Number of coins sent to exchanges are at historical high level (Daily and weekly but not monthly). We like to look at this chart as a proxy for the amount of fear in the market and it seems that fear is abundant rn. Good news or the lack of bad news might induce a bear market rally after this levels of extreme fears. Let see what will come out of FOMC later today.  

One of the most interesting things through this run is strong fiat bid. Coinbase premium has come to life not only Coinbase. As you can see there's seem to be a strong fiat bid on other venues like Bitstamp & Gemini (All 3 has an institutional bid as well). One can argue part of the delta is due to ALT outperformance since 30/7 but this might be(yes might, only if it continues...) a very positive change in the market structure.    

We are seeing a lot of coins moving out of exchanges while price was surging. We believe that those two has no causation between them. Lets take Binance reserves for example: ~70K coins has left the exchange since 26.6 (when the rumors started), most of the coins were withdrawn in this week after the news about regulatory scrutiny broke out. Regarding the surge in price, we believe it was caused by a gamma sqweez as you can see GEX (gamma exposure & price) as we are near expiry of July options    

Miners are hedging themselves this last month. We can use the "inter entity flows" between miners to derivative exchanges and see how miners are sending more coins to exchanges in a growing rate when implied volatility (DVOL - Deribit Vol) is declining before another leg up. Also its very apparent that flows to spot exchanges is low,    

It seems that has flows from derivative to spot exchanges has decreased significantly in the last 10 hours. If you use this metric as a proxy for smart money behavior we can assume that derivative traders are holding their collateral (not selling it on spot) so they probably waiting for a bigger move.  

There were two big drivers to this bull run: 1. GBTC carry trade. 2. BTC futures basis trade (including CME) Both were driving the price and also helped to establish price floor in dips, those trades are attractive for institutions in a low free risk environment. The GBTC trade ended in February and the basis trade in May. For a sustainable new ball market we'll need to see the futures basis trade back. Until than the market regime is a stablecoin market regime (stables are moving the price...)     

There were two big drivers to this bull run: 1. GBTC carry trade. 2. BTC futures basis trade (including CME) Both were driving the price and also helped to establish price floor in dips, those trades are attractive for institutions in a low free risk environment. The GBTC trade ended in February and the basis trade in May. For a sustainable new ball market we'll need to see the futures basis trade back. Until than the market regime is a stablecoin market regime (stables are moving the price...)     

We are seeing more flows from derivative exchanges to spot in the last 3-4 days relatively to the last 2 - 3 weeks, while price is in the lower half of the range. So sophisticated market participants are realizing some of their profits instead of use it as collateral, I'd be cautious here... I use those flows as a proxy for smart money taking profitis.  

Here are 3 interesting facts: 1. There are more funds on derivative exchanges relative to spot. 2. Binance is the most liquid futures market. 3. Binance has the highest OI among exchanges. white - total market. Orange - Binance. Others - Other exchanges. Given those 3 facts are true, there's an interesting dynamic between BInance & Bitfinex. White - BTC flows from BInance to Bitfinex (triple EMA). Green - long BTC liquidations. Red - Short BTC liquidations. Yellow line- Bitfinex BTC reserves.