M_Ernest

Miners in general continue to make transfers to the derivatives market. The miners' reserve has decreased in the last two weeks by 4300 #BTC. Possibly these transfers to the derivatives market are hedges against future falls and not with the intention of selling (imo).  

Is it possible that we have a sell off for BTC? Well, it could happen with all the turbulent market news. But more specifically because of the inflow of more than 23.700 BTC to the spot market from the Gemini exchange from a wallet that contains between 1k and 10k BTC (whale). This inflow could be used to trigger a big sell-off. Another aspect is that this inflow represents a significant destruction of old coins that flows into the spot market. We'll see what happens...     

1- Entry of 9.220 BTC in the derivatives market (DM) 2- Entry of 109M USD to the spot market to raise the price 3- Pumping of the spot market price 4- Closing of DM positions and entry of BTC in the spot (preparing the dump) 5. Price dump  

Well, like last time, I don't think it's real, but let's see why... 1- Yesterday at 15:22 entry of 9,220 BTC in the derivatives market from a portfolio of 1k and 10k BTC. 2- A few hours later, entry of 109,218,776 USD to the spot market. Then it decreases so they have been spent. Gasoline to raise the spot price. 3- Following hours the spot goes up in a night time with little liquidity. Leave a bad auction. 4- The rise with a negative delta, indicative of a lack of buying activity.     

Much is said about a possible bottom or not. Historically the Net Unrealized Loss (NUL) has indicated a possible bottom. If we analyze the chart we can identify possible bottom when the value of NUL > 0.5 and corrections with NUL < 0.5. Therefore, according to the NUL we are in the correction phase (possible downtrend). I think we still need more important drops to see an exponential increase in the NUL (> 0.5) and identify a possible bottom.  

The largest daily liquidation of long positions of the year occurred yesterday. More than 336 MUSD was liquidated. To be more exact, it is the biggest liquidation of long positions since December 4, 2021...  

Major inflows from three exchanges in today's price drop... Responsible, Binance, Huobi and possibly the biggest drop since Gemini (>10,000 BTC). We can also see how it has been distributed in local maximums from mainly binance (red rectangles)...  

Since institutions began trading BTC, the derivatives market has nearly doubled the spot market in invested capital. The Taker Sell Ratio indicator is therefore interesting for detecting possibly institutional market sentiment. There is currently a slightly dominant buying sentiment in the market. While in the last ATH the dominant selling sentiment increased... It is very useful to detect possible market extremes. Note: Values over 0.5 indicate dominant selling sentiment in the market.  

Since the increase in the price of BTC on March 27, the price has remained in range with a slight increase in the funding rate. On the other hand, the open interest does not register an important movement and remains stable. The uncertainty continues after the last move... A possible confirmation of a change in sentiment could be a break of the 50k level...    

In the last few days we have seen how the price of BTC has migrated from the annual POC to a higher volume node (chart 1). The question is if this move is real or has been pumped for some reason. This answer is difficult to answer, but there are some indicators that show a high activity in the derivatives market when the price movement is significant (chart 2). The charts show spot (chart 3) and derivative market activity. They are indicated as with a significant movement of the price, increase the inflow to exchanges in spot market. In addition, if we analyze the order flow (1D time frame, chart 4) we can detect a price increase with a negative delta in several candles, a possible indication of selling as the price rises. In general, the demand in the spot market is not significant enough to cause significant price movements and that is why the institutions make their profit in the derivatives market. Therefore, I'm still conservative and very cautious with the current market.