Sashimi Nakamoto

Historically liquidations cascades in Bitcoin, and subsequent drop in OI, are followed by further price declines. This happens for a number of factors, including inability of exchanges to profitably dispose of liquidated assets. Major exchanges then dispose of liquidated assets gradually over time. Further price decline, possibly into 42-44k for BTC is likely given this historical context.  

Bircoin buyer-seller taker ratio for a few hours today reached the highest value of the past 12 months, indicating that buyers have begun stepping up. Historically such moves preceded upward moves in price. This suggest that Bitcoin is poised for another leg up, likely into high $50k in the near term. Historically corrections after such legs up are also likely, so be prepared for volatility.  

GBTC Bitcoin accumulation has been on hold since February, prior to Bitcoin price topping off. Despite the recent rally to $49k, GBTC premiums are still negative (-14%), indicating little investor interest. For the price to make new ATHs, the biggest Bitcoin buyer should resume buying, and investor interest should be reflected in the positive premiums. Until that happens, Bitcoin is rallying on borrowed time.  

12K BTC were deposited to Binance, likely causing immediate selling pressure hours later, and a price decline of ~5% at the time of writing. Netflows exceeding 10K BTC in a given hour are typically a strong indicator of short-term selling pressure and subsequent price decline.  

Leverage ratio (open interest divided by exchange reserves) reached levels last seen in the peak of March and April 2021. Funding is still slightly negative, indicating higher short interest than long. If BTC retains the lower range of 30K, shorts will begin to squeeze as BTC moves to the middle point of the range, likely accelerating in the coming days/weeks. At the same time, whales at Bitfinex are long-to-short at a ratio of 14x, while retail is still largely short.  

37K BTC just left Coinbase Pro, in what possible is a major OTC deal. If confirmed who bought, this is likely going to be an extremely bullish event.  

Historically large ETH deposits to derivative exchanges resulted in increased risk of short-term volatility. Whales use coin-margined contracts to open large positions against ETH as collateral. On June 22, over 170K ETH were deposited into derivative exchanges in a single hour, and close to 950K in a single day. At the same time, Bitfinex whales opened over 500K long ETH contracts. Expect sharp volatility increase in the coming days/weeks, with bullish bias.  

Bitfinex whales were in control for much of the major moves since the drop from $57K. Over 18K BTC were deposited into Bitfinex just prior to the crash on May 12, and again on May 22, May 31, and June 10, for moves of smaller amplitude. Between June 6 - 18, Bitfinex whales opened massive shorts of 25K BTC in the $35k-$36k range that they have been closing since June 18 at $33-$34k range, while the price declined. With the whales exiting shorts, selling pressure may subside.