BullishVSTVistraVistraMELIMercadoLibreMercadoLibre
4d ago on
Today’s add: $VST at pre-market hours $MELI $PDD Fun time.
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I don’t buy stories. I buy cash flows, balance sheets, and mispriced assets. | Yes, I am allergic to bubbles. $SIRI $JD $NE $LULU $MOH $PGR $POOL $PDD $FNMA
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on VST by @longriverCM on X since Aug 2026: not yet scored on VST (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (17)
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 VST calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @longriverCM to submit corrections.
Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
Today’s add: $VST at pre-market hours $MELI $PDD Fun time.
View original →$VST Q3 was pretty good, but there’s a lot to like and a few things I’m watching. The good: 1. 2027 FCF guidance of $4.3–5.1B 2. $7.7–8.5B EBITDA guidance 3. Cogentrix adds 5.5GW of gas generation 4. Another $1.5B buyback authorization 5. Data center demand + nuclear/gas PPAs give them more visibility At ~$113, VST is around 8x 2027 FCF at the midpoint. That’s getting interesting. The bad: 1. Still carrying ~$20B+ of net debt 2. ~$1.4B of annual interest expense 3. A lot of the bull case depends on power prices, capacity prices and data-center demand 4. FCFbG isn’t the same thing as plain GAAP FCF Overall, I like the setup much more at $110–115 than I did at $140. Still leveraged. Still cyclical. But the risk/reward is starting to look pretty attractive.
View original →$VST is getting hit pretty hard today, and I wonder if the market is overreacting to the political implications of the midterm results. I understand the concerns around Texas potentially becoming less accommodating to data-center development. The election results are changing things. I get that. If new projects get delayed or cancelled, Vistra’s long-term electricity demand growth assumptions could certainly change. But I think investors need to distinguish between slower incremental demand growth and deterioration in the economics of Vistra’s existing generation business. The company still has substantial generation assets, a meaningful hedging position through 2027, and existing commercial relationships. Its second-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization grew approximately 31% year over year, and management maintained its full-year guidance. That doesn’t mean the long-term risks are gone, but it does make me question whether today’s selloff is pricing in too much pessimism. I’m not rushing to average down aggressively before earnings, but I’m watching closely and adding a bit for now. Is the market correctly repricing Vistra’s future growth, or is this an opportunity to buy an existing power-generation business because investors are extrapolating political uncertainty too far? Curious how others see it.
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