BytQuant

-Head and shoulders pattern confirmed weekly => btc price < 39K) -Fake wall of shorts orders at 39-40K => new resistance to be monitored because these are FAKE orders (could be removed). -Leverage ratio still too high -MVRV 1.5 is low but too early to buy : DON'T BUY just now. -SP500 and NASDAQ in a very bad shape. More dips to come in the future. SCENARIOS: -Realistic scenario (my 'favorite'): Further liquidations to most probably to come => 28 to 35K -Pessimistic scenario (possible if people are panicking/capitulating): bottom MA 200 Weekly in between 19-20K. Historically MA weekly reached in march 2020, dec 2018, 2015 (3 times) and never went below 200 MA for a long time. -Optimistic scenario (not the one i foresee): aggregated spreads on derivatives markets are positive, investors are optimistic it could go back up from now. I think they are wrong and market will follow the order book + fake orders resistance at 39K. RECOMMENDATION Longs should HODL. Shorts have an option.   

-My predictions do not change: i'm overall bearish -Order book: there will be a short squeeze (approx. 46K-47K could be more) BUT then longs will be liquidated (36K could be less). I would go for the short squeeze first, then the longs and the reason for that is simple: spreads are positive which means that traders on derivative market think BTC price will rise. Same goes with the options with a max pain price of 46K on 28th jan. -While onchain indicator MVRV sends a strong signal to buy (1.7), i bet there will be soon even better discount prices: i would NOT BUY just now. -Leverage is historically at an ATH which means some of us are too confident. They need to lose confidence first, to capitulate before we can go back to "normal" price increase. I expect strong volatility. -Economic context is NOT APPROPRIATE for prices to soar: NASDAQ, SP500 are heading south. There will be min. 4 interest rates increase this year to come in the US which is not good for Bitcoin.  

-My predictions do not change: i'm overall bearish -Order book: there will be a short squeeze (approx. 46K-47K could be more) BUT then longs will be liquidated (36K could be less). I would go for the short squeeze first, then the longs and the reason for that is simple: spreads are positive which means that traders on derivative market think BTC price will rise. Same goes with the options with a max pain price of 46K on 28th jan. -While onchain indicator MVRV sends a strong signal to buy (1.7), i bet there will be soon even better discount prices: i would NOT BUY just now. -Leverage is historically at an ATH which means some of us are too confident. They need to lose confidence first, to capitulate before we can go back to "normal" price increase. I expect strong volatility. -Economic context is NOT APPROPRIATE for prices to soar: NASDAQ, SP500 are heading south. There will be min. 4 interest rates increase this year to come in the US which is not good for Bitcoin.  

-Orderbook says we might liquidate the longs down to 38K (Coinbase, Bitfinex), 37K for Binance, Deribit orderbook not reliable... -Volume profile indicates bottom would be 34,5K -Market says < 39K we enter a bear market -EMA 9 crossed EMA 18 weekly 10 days ago and warned in advance of the current downward trend -Graph shows bearish divergence monthly Therefore I see a short-term correction before we can reconsider the trend. Main market threats 2022: -FED wants to increase interest rates to better control inflation. I would tend to say inflation is good for bitcoin... -Risk of new regulations -Risk of an economic crisis in China triggered by defaults on the real estate market (Evergrande) -US Stock market SP 500, Nasdaq overvalued = economic bubble will burst most probably 2022. + risk of an economic crisis in the US since the country could default end of the year  

1) Facts: More leverage than we've ever had a chance to witness. + Open interest going up (more volumes). + Negative Spreads signaling shorts > longs (BTC price derivates - spot) = more shorts liquidations 2) Impact: Market can decide to head north to liquidate the shorts, most probably up to 54K. Then it would head south to liquidate the longs, down to 40K. It would make sense that the market liquidates the shorts first (short squeeze). I first thought it would go the other way around but let's see. Eventually 24B$ options expiring 12/31 with max pain price* around 48K make me think the price should follow this flow: => 54K (max) > 48K > 40K/45K (bottom) . But it could also be: => 54K > 40/45K > 48K. Or i just could be wrong, let's see ;-) Any case market has to liquidate the 40-44/45K longs and the 49-54K shorts: is there any other way around? I don't think so. What do you think? Hope the screenshots help a bit. *Max pain price generates the max losses on both bids & ask side  

Market may not want to pay for the longs by heading north just now. Therefore, since the orderbook shows higher transactional volume on longs as opposed to shorts, it may head south first to liquidate the longs before we can expect any rally of a kind. -First liquidate the longs in between 40 to 45K range price per BTC (south) -Second liquidate the shorts (north) = to be confirmed. Thank you  

1) Take a look at the key onchain indicators. (screenshot) 2) About TA: -Weekly spreads close to 0 + spreads < EMA 13 -William R moving downward -MACD <0 -Negative funding rates -OI Futures down/accumulation -Market may liquidate the longs around 44-42K. -38.5 to 44.5K BTC = reloading zone Thank you  

Column on the right is red which indicates some relevant CQ indicators are heading south. Technical analysis not better on a weekly basis with "M" structures, trendlines heading south & EMA9 < EMA18 daily. Spreads neutral or negative, MVRV getting closer to 1.7 may be positive signs but it's too early. Still Evergrande and SP500 global threats on the market. Not a good time to trade. HODL recommendation.  

- Fees are the reward paid to miners for mining the blocks. When fees are high it means either the network is congested or the size of the transactions is high. Today's fees are low meaning that we don't have a high level of supply and demand on the market. This indicates altseason is not just about to start yet. - Funding rates are low and we have downward divergences on price and RSI - MACD and W%R forming bearish weekly "M" pattern - Low volumes - OBV moving downward. =>Short-term bearish.  

MACD and William R technical analytics indicators are forming a bearish "M" pattern (not confirmed yet) while there is upward convergence on RSI and price. The market does not have to wait for RSI to hit 92, NUPL 0.73 and MVRV 3.7 to crash. I still remain bullish overall because most onchain indicators are still in green, but pay attention to very high levels of activity on the futures market, very high-leverage as well. Fear and Greed very high as well. Be cautious with greed.