Called $BTC bullish on Nov 16, 2024: $BTC rose 13% in 2 months.
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Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 12 directional calls by @percival on CryptoQuant since Sep 2024: tracked, not yet ranked (below the accuracy-scoring baseline) (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Called $BTC bullish on Nov 16, 2024: $BTC rose 13% in 2 months.
View call →Bitcoin ready for either side!
Since the last high on September 16th until the present, Bitcoin has been in the loading phase. Its dynamics tend to follow this pattern of aggressive rises and consequent lasting corrections. Our Choppiness Index on both the daily and weekly charts is quite unstable (62 and 72 respectively), meaning it urgently needs to enter a trend, suggesting a more aggressive movement to either side of the box. Evidence of this pressure is the 90-day range that Bitcoin has found, with fluctuations ranging around 16% from the maximum to the minimum of the lateral range. The same case happened in August 2023, which preceded more explosive upward movements, but even before they happened, the price cleared all traders of “boring” positions in the opposite direction due to low volatility, a good way to shake up the market. Looking at the short term, the short-term SOPR is in a balance zone below 1, but compared to August 2023 we have a test zone at 0.97, currently at 0.99 (still without fear in the air) highlighting the possibility of sudden movements up and down causing liquidations and some short-term panic. Our first floor will be the Short Term Holders Cost Base located at $92K, if the buying force is unable to fully sustain this attack then the ground floor will be located between $80K and $89K, coinciding with the EMA 200. The possibility of false moves before the bull run is strong, many breakout traders are positioned in these zones, and the sovereign market tends to blow up these positions and return to the expected course!    
View original →How much demand is needed to push Bitcoin into the $150K range?
So far, Bitcoin's structure has had the structural dynamics of a mature asset, with upward spikes and consequent consolidations that, for many, become "distressing." Bitcoin has a $2T Market Cap and is the sixth most potent asset among the world's fiat currencies (among the sharks, it is only worth 0.2% of all of them!)… Impressive! By tracing a Fibonacci Expansion from the bottom in November 2022 ($15,450K) to our consolidation in 2024 ($48,934K), we demarcate a target between $136K and $150K, converging with the Realized Price Bands metric, which shows us the same picture regarding the money that was invested in Bitcoin (ex: I have 1 BTC bought at $50K and I will sell at $100K, means a gain and net inflow of $100K in Bitcoin), it becomes a good gauge for the next resistance in Bitcoin. To reach these numbers, Bitcoin will have to have an MCap of around $3 trillion "($150K*$2.08T)/$104k = $3T)". In the 2021 cycle, the Realized Cap increased to the ATH 470% (5x) since the bearish cycle; in the current cycle, the Market Cap increased only 111% (2.12x), still with room to grow compared to 2021. Therefore, with a Bitcoin price at $150K, the Realized Cap would be approximately $1.21 trillion (an increase of $350B and 43%). Possible Impulses: ETFs—Since launch, the Realized Cap ETFs have received ~$40B in infloch, representing only 4.7% of the Realized C. To get something close to $35,0B, they would have to enter more than 7x the current number. That's a lot of liquid capital! - The Bitcoin Futures market has an aggregate value of $95B, representing 11.45% of the Realized Cap. That is, to reach $350B, they would have to do 3.7x. With the FOMC and the market overheating, no, it is impossible.     
View original →Ethereum fragility, if not stopped, could lead to “free fall”! Is Bitcoin ready to continue?
With the new Trump administration, the clarity of friendly regulation seems more present than ever. Bitcoin follows its course separately from altcoins, a differentiated economy. On the other hand, Ethereum has been going through several internal problems in the EF. All these obstacles have made the ETH/BTC relationship become a “horror.” Today, Ethereum has returned to 2016 levels, where 63.8% of all Ethereum trading days are Unprofitable Days. In other words, anyone who bought Ethereum in 2016 and at the bottom of 2020 can now have profitable days compared to Bitcoin. Ultimately, Ethereum needs to “bottom”; otherwise, sentiment and speculation will go crazy. When we look at spot market transactions, we see a sharp decrease since the 2021 cycle. They are currently at just $8B compared to $52B in January 2021, midway through the bull market. This means that the demand for Ethereum in this bull market is considerably lower, with a reduction of around -84%. With macroeconomic events, Bitcoin could react positively, but looking at the majestic Choppiness Index, we finally see the fuel tank almost at its maximum strength to continue the trend. With a value of 62, the market says the trend needs to start urgently. At the end of the year, in the article (https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/675313ee1b7d5223665eeadc-After-the-wave-of-100K-liquidations-the-structure-remained-the-same-the-next-zon) I predicted weeks of consolidation needed for loading… there was this movement! The current market structure allows us to say that Bitcoin wants to continue its upward trend in the coming days.    
View original →Is Bitcoin’s Indecision Channel Trying to Find Demand to Continue?
All investors in previous cycles know that Bitcoin's seasonality is a fact in the last months of the year. Eventually, increased pressure on the sell side extends into the first month of the following year. They see Open Interest decline by 13%, with a large majority coming from CME (profit-taking institutions). Likewise, Bitcoin ETFs will see a net reduction from $14 billion/month to $6.6 billion/month, thus continuing in good shape and with significant inflows, which helps to sustain Bitcoin at the $90,000 support. Until the spot market, the selling pressure in December was enormous, with $-200M/day. On the other hand, in January, we returned to the neutral line… a topic demonstrating the strength of Bitcoin in not wanting to fall any deeper! Which direction is most likely? Looking at the demand side, a slight slowdown in on-chain volume is noticeable, but it remains at a healthy $12B in most exchange inflows and outflows. Looking at the risk on the sell side, you are already in a more balanced area of 0.0012; that is, the selling pressure is falling at generous steps (since Nov with 0.006), zooming out short-term investors see the risk on the selling side, completely in balance, a great sign that STH do not see realized losses that bother them (the level of loss today is bearable). The odds favor the $90K floor, but beware! There is a gap in the STH MVRV between 1.08 and the average at 1 (STH cost base $88), and this difference can become the “breathing space” for an eventual external scenario, zeroing the possibility of going deeper!    
View original →Is the $85K threshold our meeting point?
In the final stretch of 2024, Bitcoin is within a consolidation range at $94K. In addition to still strong selling pressure from Long-Term Holders gifting other people their Bitcoins, the buying pressure to levitate in this channel for a few more days is impressive. Looking at the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, a metric that shows the balance in high-value zones when currencies are trading with huge profits compared to when they were first purchased, in this case, it is heated with high selling pressure, but not to the extreme. To better understand the selling pressure, it is necessary to look at the short term as coins older than 6 months are the ones that move the most, on average between ~50K and 58K BTC/day, values that have remained stable since November. The STH supply is 5.4M BTC, today there are around 2M coins held in loss, percentage-wise I would say that only 16% are in unrealized loss, a calm number for a bull market with corrections along the way. (I don't think this is our market top, objectively I needed to see a dominant number to think about a bear market). Is it still possible to fall lower? Eventually yes! If you analyze the losing coins, they are close to the STH cost base well situated at $85K, which shows this to be a target to be beaten. The MVRV still converges with the cost base, as it is still in a heated zone (1.10) of “caution” for the short term and has room to go down a little further where we can “happily buy sats at a lower price”. The selling pressure continues and at this time of year with adjustments in institutions, it may be necessary to sell and start 2025 on the right foot!    
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