Called $BTC bearish on May 12, 2022: $BTC fell 29% over the next 5 weeks.
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Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 13 directional calls by @chartoday on CryptoQuant since Apr 2022: tracked, not yet ranked (below the accuracy-scoring baseline) (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Called $BTC bearish on May 12, 2022: $BTC fell 29% over the next 5 weeks.
View call →Update on the 6M Realised Price Age Band
> This indicator shows the realised price, sorted by age. This way, an average of the assumed price for coins 3-6 months old can be visualised in the chart below (similar to a moving average, but on-chain adjusted). > The fact that in the two previous cycles, price going above this band has led to considerable uptrends can be seen, especially after the bear market already had hit the markets. > Even if price goes below said band (like in 2019), there's a certain likelihood that BTC formed a bottom in November. However, since no other points of view are being considered for this conclusion, confluence between perspectives is important.  
View original →Short Term Holder SOPR at bull market levels
> During the recent rally from 16k to 23k, a lot of momentum was implied. This means that buyers were aggressive and that they are well in profit, as that's what SOPR indicates. In short, we're seeing a sustained rally > What's next? Bitcoin is also close to breaking its next high timeframe resistance near $25k. If this is successful, short term holders will increase momentum even more, making price reach $27-28k > As long as $25k is not broken, BTC is likely to slightly retrace —see the divergence between SOPR and price, in which the former is trending down while the latter is stable. Ultimately, it's an indicator that some of these short term holders are getting trapped into buying now while other forces (exchange market makers, which do not move funds on-chain usually) are driving price down TLDR: BTC is likely to pullback at these levels based on the Short Term Holder SOPR, but if it does break 25k soon, targets would be around 27-28k  
View original →Short-Term Holder SOPR Analysis
Introduction: Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) tracks whether coins are sold at more or less profit. Short-term only accounts the coins moved in the last 180 days > Until FTX collapse, short-term holders have been benefiting more and more from the moves BTC was making (creating a bearish divergence). It's clear as well that FTX was a fundamental event and conclusions are not based on this fact. > Comparing the current value to June's low, the SOPR is still quite high, yet price is lower. It's also true that drawdowns in June are larger than the ones in November. > Also note that during this range short-term holders are still selling at a loss. Until this loss flattens out or starts to decrease, BTC probably won't see more moves up. > Altogether, this leaves room for downside in early 2023, or alternatively, for low volatility periods.  
Introduction: Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) tracks whether coins are sold at more or less profit. Short-term only accounts the coins moved in the last 180 days > Until FTX collapse, short-term holders have been benefiting more and more from the moves BTC was making (creating a bearish divergence). It's clear as well that FTX was a fundamental event and conclusions are not based on this fact. > Comparing the current value to June's low, the SOPR is still quite high, yet price is lower. It's also true that drawdowns in June are larger than the ones in November. > Also note that during this range short-term holders are still selling at a loss. Until this loss flattens out or starts to decrease, BTC probably won't see more moves up. > Altogether, this leaves room for downside in early 2023, or alternatively, for low volatility periods.  
View original →The ‘on-chain moving averages’ show more bearish signals
To start, these ‘on-chain moving averages’ mentioned in the title are nothing more that realised price sorted by age UTXOs. Realised price consists the result of weighing each coin at the rate it was last transferred (it represents an idea of the value that the market assumes) and UTXOs are what compose the age categories. Here’s how BTC has been reacting to the 1W and 1M bands throughout the last two cycles (this applies to bull and bear, although I’m exemplifying the latter): Drop: in this first/last phase, bitcoin just maintains below both of the bands and crashes (quite) violently. 1M is above 1W due to the bearish momentum First consolidation: BTC goes above the 1W and the initial low isn’t broken. If the low does break (like in May) then the consolidation is invalid and structure goes back to phase 1. Range peak/reversal: the 1M band is broken, and this is the moment to decide whether the range tops out or there’s a continued reversal. [CONTINUATION IN COMMENTS]  
View original →Short term holder exhaustion in a time-based capitulation
Not much price action has happened over the last few weeks, even months. Short-term holders have stayed strong since June, so it’s long term holders who have been bringing price down (as mentioned in the previous article about spent output profit ratio). There are two main bearish arguments that can be extracted from the chart above. The first one is the marked bearish divergence: price is lower, but short-term traders are making gaining more. The latter goes around the fact that SOPR above 1 indicates there are more profits than losses, and that seems to be a resistance since April. As opposed to May-June’s price-based capitulation, some could say bitcoin is currently going through a time-based capitulation, somewhat similar to 2018 (before its drop from $6k to $3k). And to add a final medium-term bearish confluence, the miner position index (MPI) is slightly higher than in June, which just shows they are not convinced enough to keep adding to their portfolios.  
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