BTCBitcoinBullish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

8/21/2023 on

3-month aSOPR bear divergence update: It's very likely closer to having played out - the larger range sweep (almost?) done

I've been tracking this development for a little over 6 weeks now and apparently, we're closer to being done (pic 1, the aSOPR div itself), which I see as the perfect opportunity forming, one I've described in my SSR QuickTake from Jul 17th (short term expectation to sweep the entire 25k - 30k range) NUL, contrary to my original expectations from 22nd June are right around levels where they were back then (pic 2, the NUL TA structure) - naturally, since Bitcoin didn't break out to the upside, but took the PA range to the downside - I view this as a perfect opportunity presenting itself The SSR RSI (IT Tech taught me this one - credit where due, pic 3) has hit levels not seen since last year's june, exceeding both FTX dump's as well as this year's march's banking crisis extremes - this to me is yet another confirmation that the time to load up the proverbial leverage truck is likely closer than you may think. Finally, PA (as well as various analysts correctly point out - the OI & leverage developments of late last week) suggest yet another factor of confluence with regards to turning bullish ALSO in the shorter term, apart from the cyclical bullish view - purely PA speaking - chances are the last week's lows are swept either now still in august or in september, then a reversal should be in order (unless, of course, the current local lows are in already, let's not forget that Gary's hammer made the market that much more illiquid). 3-month aSOPR bear div quick sum: 13th jul 2023 - spotted 24th jul 2023 - playing out today: much closer to done (SSR RSI, NUL, PA) The last update on this metric from my end: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/64beb0a38f218e1612b86acf-3-month-aSOPR-bear-divergence-update-Its-playing-out P.S.: Interesting note: AntPool's activity I've outlined in my last QuickTake ceased, HOWEVER, miners overall haven't stopped increasing their reserves and also exchange depositing transactions new lows not seen since mid-feb '17...     

BTCBitcoinBullish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

8/7/2023 on

Miner's have been accumulating, their flows to derivatives exchanges was a deception, not hedging or directional bets

Contrary to some on-chain analysts' opinions, the miners have not been selling, likely not even "hedging", the "Miner to derivatives exchanges flows" chart was skewed by AntPool's efforts to trick us into thinking there's "selling pressure" from Miners. Let's have a look at the charts: 1/ First, the chart this QuickTake is linked to "by default" ("Go to live chart now") button (screenshot #1): Mid-June to 22nd-23rd Jul AntPool has been sending ₿ back & forth to Binance & back to themselves, which some interpreted as "hedging" (myself, got played, too) or even "selling"/"speculative" directional bets. From 23rd Jul onwards, only the flows from exchanges to AntPool has remained active 2/ Secondly, a closer look at the Block resolution (screenshot #2) clearly says that it's been an algorithmic activity, clips of ₿100 - ₿150 had been being sent back & forth as per the date & time delineated above (1st 4 - 5 days it was actually clips of ₿200), then between 22nd-23rd Jul, the AntPool to exchanges flows cease, however, their total inflows & outflows remained intact, as did their inflows from Binance. In other words, they chose to avoid triggering the "miner to exchange flow" metric by using an intermediate address, we've seen this before (See IT Tech's Quick Take from May 18th). 3/ Overall, All miners have been accumulating since 20th Jun (they probably followed AntPool's activity, screenshot #3) 4/ Miner to xchg flows chart for reference (screenshot #4) Summary: Overall, Miners have accumulated ~₿4060 / past 48 days AntPool accumulated ~₿1020 / past 52 days Conclusions: 1. "what do the miners (AntPool in particular) know that we don't" is a valid question 2. In the Big Picture the amounts of ₿ we're talking about here may not be "staggering", but is a telltale sign of current miners' sentiment nonetheless Charts References: Screenshot #2 - https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/sw1VLRpl7Yf98 Screenshot #3 - https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/mhxRssHUyI9YJrk     

BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin

7/31/2023 on

STH SOPR approaching the equilibrium as BoJ messes up their YCC tweak

Bitcoin STH SOPR approaches the critical "1" equilibrium line as BoJ reverses their "YCC tweak" policy well before it reaches their announced new "line in the sand" of 100bps. Immediatelly after BoJ decides to move the goal post, the spread on gold between Oanda & COMEX flies to highest since mid june '21 on the daily, and highest since march '20 on the weekly, only for gold to breach new ATH in terms of yen like about a weekend after BoJ makes their "YCC tweak" announcement on friday last week. USDJPY wipes out both sides of the market after clearing a major higher low in its uptrend only to continue marching higher right after BoJ is forced to make an U-turn as JP10Y reaches slightly above 60bps. Meanwhile Bitcoin keeps on sitting tight in its range, with STH SOPR approaching the "1" level, BBW continuing to look for new lows and volatility being surpressed still... In my humble opinion - if Gold sniffed it out, Bitcoin will follow suit soon enough. It is no coincidence that Binance is heading to Japan, too among the beginning of what I perceive as the beginning of govt bonds confidence major blow. This is the perfect storm environment for Bitcoin, make no mistake about it - the governments & central banks have historically always saved the bond market & used the currency as the release valve. This is now unfolding right in front of our very eyes with the Japanese Yen. Gold sniffed it out, there's a flight towards it already. To be honest with you, not really sure what Bitcoin is waiting for. Given the above described macro picture (feel free to review my last year's june BoJ YCC "blow up" call, back then still at 25bps here on CQ QT) I see only two possible scenarios ahead: - A "quiet" re-accumulation continatuion before the inevitable lift off - the lift off As always - should you decide to play this with leverage rather than spot - please be sure to manage your risk - leverage flush out prior to a take off can't be ruled out :)     

BTCBitcoinBearish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

7/24/2023 on

3-month aSOPR bear divergence update: It's playing out

Looks like the 3-month bear divergence on aSOPR I've outlined on Jul 13 is playing out. That said, the metric itself is fast approaching the "1" equilibrium line, which means that we may see a bounce as soon as a convenient technical structure is reached. Should we close this week below the key 2020 yearly close of 28 980, I'd be looking for 27 700-ish as the next best line of support, should that get breached, 25k-ish is the next logical technical structure to be looking at. As far as current uptrend in Bitcoin since the beginning of this year is concerned, please note a potential confluence of its supporting trendline with the 27,7k mid-range area. That said, I usually don't pay that much attention to trendlines (I prefer horizontal levels instead) and would like to note that a weekly close below 28 980 warrants both 27,7k & 25k as potential technical targets. Should we close this week back above 28 980, either further sideways chop or a continuation of the current uptrend is easily warranted in such a case. aSOPR holding support at "1" or, better yet, "bouncing" off of it warrants anything at least to the 32 384 liquidity pocket area, and possibly beyond, especially if aSOPR's current high of 1,0235 is breached as a lagging confirmation... The "original" Jul 13th QuickTake URL for reference: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/64b0053dd3b747540365ebb0-aSOPR-3-month-bearish-divergence-warrants-caution-patience   

BTCBitcoinBullishBitcoin

7/17/2023 on

Bitcoin SSR - 3 most likely scenarios going forward + is the halving "priced in" / if so by how much.

Three main scenarios for the Bitcoin price going forward (tightening Bollinger bands & surpressed volatility suggest a larger move coming in the next few weeks to months) - the evaluation of "set ups" = assuming one of the expected scenarios play out: 1. SSR to lower channel band x PA sideways or slightly lower (e.g. not breaching 25k significantly to the downside) = a very bullish set up once the move down is done (short term I am expecting the current range to potentially be cleared to the downside as per my last QuickTake with regards to the 3-month aSOPR bear div) 2. SSR to lower channel band x PA all the way back to Realized price or potentially lower (e.g. breaching 25k significantly to the downside) = an EXTREMELY bullish set up 3. SSR to higher channel band x PA exceeding the 32 384 liquidity area with strength = probably a good break out, but without a FIAT world black swan/meltdown (bonds imploding badly for instance), the subsequent top (my best "guesstimate" would be the '22 YO around 46 200-ish as a potential target) may actually present a good tactical intra-cycle short opportunity. In terms of Risk:Reward, the bullish break out into the 40's offers the best potential "R", however, as per my last QuickTake, it MAY be a good idea to wait & see whether an opportunity to get in our mid-longer term leveraged plays in lower parts of the current range doesn't by any chance present itself, first... The purple box is there to make one think about whether halving is priced in or not and if so by how much (similarity with pre-2020 halving) in terms of SSR - halving still ~270 or so days ahead, yet the SSR looks similar to around may 2020. Certainly something to think about.