Rekt Capital

At long last - $LTC has its day Covered in the Newsletter since early June and since then #LTC bottomed at the orange $39 level (without deviation on this occasion) Then, price reversed to the upside to break back into the blue-blue Macro Range via a key reclaim (green circle) Over time, LTC should be able to traverse the entirety of its Macro Range I write Altcoin Newsletters every Wednesday and Friday: https://t.co/2XzvmONaSB #BTC $BTC

#BTC If we look to the previous 2022-2025 Bitcoin cycle... Each year was the home for one major Bull Market pullback: 2023 = -22% retrace 2024 = -34% retrace 2025 = -32% retrace In Bitcoin Bull Markets, history suggests you can count on at least one major pullback per year $BTC #Bitcoin

#BTC It's always very tempting to just assume Bitcoin will go on and produce -30% pullbacks in Bull Markets After all, deeper pullbacks afford better prices for entries But it's not about the pullback depth we desire but about the pullback depth that is reasonably probable based on where Bitcoin is in the cycle Take the previous 2022-2025 cycle: Bitcoin only saw over -30% retraces in the Post-Halving period Pre-Halving retraces were much shallower, just over -20% each time Early-stage Bull Markets offer shallow pullbacks but those pullbacks are great opportunities for the long-run $BTC #Bitcoin

The early-stage #BTC Bull Market Re-Accumulation Range in 2023 developed slightly above the 2022 inverse Head and Shoulders Accumulation Pattern In this cycle, the ~$82500 level is the analogous level to the very top of the 2022 Accumulation Pattern Turn $82500 into support -> Bitcoin would likely start building out its new ReAccumulation Range Note: it's not yet clear where the top of that Range would be but its bottom would likely be $82500 or slightly above it (i.e. in 2023 it was slightly above the analogous level to $82500) Fail to turn $82500 into support however and there’s a chance Bitcoin reverts back into the $60k - $80k Range and retraces within it That intra-range pullback could take place in an effort to build out a Right Shoulder, if the intent is for Bitcoin to replicate an inverse Head and Shoulders Accumulation Pattern similar to 2022-2023 (and this is an assumption based on emerging market structure) These are conditional scenarios based on $82500 as a technical level because it is the pivot point for the next phase in the cycle Of course, if $82500 holds as support then the breakout from the ~$60k-$82500 Macro Range will be confirmed, obviously invalidating a reversion back into the Range But for as long as $82500 fails to hold as support, that Right Shoulder to a potential inverse Head & Shoulders becomes quite compelling (there's a good chance that the Right Shoulder would be a little higher than the Left Shoulder, like in 2023) Attached are charts from the prior cycle where I clearly outlined the 2022 bottom at ~$15500 via downside deviations below the 200-week SMA (which kickstarted the Head of the inverse H&S in that cycle) and another couple of charts outlining the full development of the Right Shoulder and its bottom in 2023 Based on those charts and same guiding principles, the analogous levels are outlined in today's chart What's interesting about a potential future Right Shoulder development is that it could coincide with a mid-term retest of the Macro Downtrend (black; we've only seen such a mid-term retest in 2015) In sum: Is Bitcoin entering a future Re-Accumulation Range? Or does price still have a chance at entertaining a low still within the Macro Accumulation Range? Either Bitcoin transitions into a new Re-Accumulation Range by keeping $82500 as support... Or we could see one final pullback in an early-stage Bull Cycle into what could be a Macro Higher Low (Side note: equal lows would be compelling but are less likely, and Lower Lows admittedly are the low probability event, but not absolutely impossible should a Black Swan take place. And if a Black Swan takes place in Q4 and BTC drops to new lows, then it would resynchronise with the 4-Year Cycle. Again, low probability but not absolutely impossible) Overall, Bitcoin is showing signs of macro trend transition and so if the transition into an early-stage Bull Market is indeed occurring, then the main trend will of course be upside for the next few years But in saying that, it's always wise to strategise ways on how price could perform a Bull Market pullback, especially whenever price is at key technical junctures like ~$82500 $BTC #Bitcoin

#BTC ~$82500 for Bitcoin right now is the crucial level to reclaim into a new support because of its prior significance as a resistance on the Bear Market Relief Rally earlier this year $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/fLe9rakuUi

#BTC "This means price may need to turn it into support on any future dip to fully confirm a breakout from the $60k-$80k Range" The dip is here but the retest of the ~$80k Range High (orange) must occur for Bitcoin to fully confirm the breakout from the $60k-$80k Range After all, the previous Bitcoin Weekly Close occurred below $82k And so price has not yet produced a Weekly Close above ~$82k Hence the importance of continued price solidification above the ~80k Range High to fully confirm the $60k-$80k Range breakout $BTC #Bitcoin

I've published a new Altcoin Watchlist🔥 I share my charts & analysis on 6 Altcoins These Altcoins are $CPOOL $NEAR $AERO $ARB $INJ $SUI I share an Altcoin Watchlist like this every Wednesday Sign up & read here: https://t.co/UTpXRrpjum #BTC $BTC

#BTC Let's see how the September Monthly Candle Closes relative to ~$82500 (i.e. the base of the Macro Triangle) Weekly and/or Monthly Close above and there's potential scope for additional upside Weekly and/or Monthly Close below and price could actually try to build out a range between these two blue Monthly levels ~$82500 are the February-April 2025 lows ~$76330 are the April/May 2026 highs which have technically been turned into new support this month $BTC #Bitcoin

#BTC A little bit more of a rejection as a result of the resistance above (blue ~$86700) Once again, staying above and/or retesting the red region below (i.e. the Range High of the previous $60k-$80k Range) is what Bitcoin needs to do to still be positioned for bullish continuation After all, Bitcoin technically broke out from the $60k-$80k Range but hasn't fully confirmed that breakout until it has retested ~$80k (orange) into new support $BTC #Bitcoin

#BTC Bitcoin has successfully post-breakout retested its Macro Downtrend into new support In doing so, it is technically transitioning from Downtrend into new Macro Uptrend All Bitcoin needs to do going forward is to stay above the Downtrend and/or retest it as support if any deeper pullbacks take place Historically, Bitcoin has more often transitioned into post-breakout Re-Accumulation Ranges (e.g. 2019 & 2023) than gone for Downtrend retests (i.e. 2015) Of course probabilistically, there's a higher chance of Bitcoin developing a newfound post-breakout Re-Accumulation Range in the future in what is technically shaping up to be an early-stage Bull Market but it's worth keeping an open mind to both scenarios After all, since breaking the Macro Downtrend, future pullbacks are likely to take place in the context of Bull Market retracements Which significantly alters the risk side of the equation as opposed to risk in Bear Market Relief Rallies as downside during Bull Market pullbacks tend to be limited before further upside is confirmed $BTC #Bitcoin