Dave Clark

Markets work the same way!! 😎🤣🤣 Here we go!!! Happy Trading!! Bank Today!! https://t.co/FYvdSXMPDz

Sunday Evening Futures – 1st Hour of Trading: September 20, 2026 The Last Look Before Monday Open The first hour of trading for the third week of September has wrapped up, with macro desks executing an orderly, neutral rebalance. Markets are absorbing the final fallout from Wednesday's FOMC rate decision where Chair Warsh and the committee raised the target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% alongside Friday's late-week rally across risk assets. The opening bell brought a steady, green-leaning tape. Equity futures opened slightly higher as a sharp late-week pullback in energy prices helped ease near term stagflation concerns. Institutional desks are executing disciplined re-hedging into the Sunday session, balancing the Fed's higher policy path against stabilizing crude inputs and resilient corporate earnings expectations. Equity Indices (E-mini focus – Rangebound Rebalance): /ES (S&P 500) — 7,600.00 | +4.50 (+0.06%) /NQ (Nasdaq-100) — 29,917.25 | +70.50 (+0.24%) /YM (Dow) — 52,576.00 | +34.00 (+0.06%) Equity contracts opened with a positive, steady tone at the 5:00 PM CT bell. The Nasdaq is spearheading the early move, pushing toward the 30,000 threshold as technology portfolios stabilize following last week's Fed rate hike. Desk flows show balanced accumulation, with traders taking advantage of lower oil prices to rebuild growth exposure. Treasuries (Bond yields – Curve Anchored Post-Fed Hike): /ZN (10-Year T-Note) — 109.10 | steady /ZB (30-Year T-Bond) — 110.35 | steady Cash yields (Indicative): 10-Year ~4.85% | 30-Year ~5.26% | 2-Year ~4.38% Sovereign debt is trading flat inside the opening hour. Fixed-income desks are keeping duration bids stable after 10-year yields plateaued late last week following the Fed's 25bps rate increase to 3.75%–4.00%. Bond traders are balancing hawkish policy guidance against cooling raw energy costs. Energy (WTI Easing Off $100 Ceiling on Rollover): /CL (Crude Oil WTI - Nov Contract) — $96.08 | -0.35 (-0.36%) /NG (Natural Gas) — $3.04 | +0.02 (+0.66%) WTI crude is easing slightly, stabilizing at $96.08 per barrel following contract rollover and Friday's settlement decline. While physical tanker supply constraints and PGSA inspections keep oil elevated, lower long-haul demand from refiners has prevented an explosive break toward new highs. Natural Gas futures are steady at $3.04. Metals (Gold Rebounds Near $4,385 Shelf Post-FOMC): /GC (Gold) — $4,385.90 | +16.00 (+0.36%) SI (Silver) — $64.85 | +0.15 (+0.23%) Precious metals are catching a firm safety bid tonight, extending Friday's post-Fed bounce. Gold futures settled Friday at $4,385.90 per troy ounce and are holding firm in early Globex trade as sovereign central bank accumulation and physical buying absorb rate-hike headwinds. Silver is consolidating steadily around $64.85. Other Hits USD Index (/DX) — 99.15 | flat VIX futures (/VX) — 16.20 | -0.35% (Volatility gauges compressing slightly post-FOMC) Social Media Chatter: Post-Fed Relief: "ES holding 7,600 and NQ pressing 29,900 shows the market has fully digested the 25bps hike. Cooling oil prices are giving equities room to breathe." Crude $96 Shelf: "WTI slipping to $96.08 takes the acute pressure off tech multiples. As long as oil doesn't explode past $100 again, stocks can grind higher." Gold $4.3k Rebound: "Gold jumping back to $4,385 after the Fed rate hike proves central bank accumulation is the real driver here. Don't short hard assets." Iran/Geopolitical Impact Report (September 20 Update) The Persian Gulf transit theater remains locked in a heavily bureaucratized operational state. While high shipping surcharges and PGSA inspections continue to restrict full vessel velocity through the Strait of Hormuz, the absence of fresh kinetic escalations over the weekend has allowed maritime insurance baselines to stabilize. Supply chains continue to operate under elevated baseline transport costs, but immediate physical supply shock fears have abated slightly. Quick Thoughts: Orderly Post Fed Rebalance: Tonight's opening hour is defined by calm, orderly positioning following the Fed's policy update. With crude oil easing back toward $96 and equity futures catching a modest green bid, the macro tape is focused on earnings execution rather than immediate monetary shocks. Watch 29,800 on /NQ and $95.00 on /CL; holding these key technical levels through the London session sets up a clean handoff into Monday's New York cash open. What Happened - Opinion Tonight's tape confirms that institutional capital has successfully absorbed the Federal Reserve's rate hike. By keeping WTI crude anchored near $96 and pushing gold back up toward $4,385 alongside a steady tech bid, money managers are signaling that corporate margin durability remains intact. Chasing panic narratives when energy prices are stabilizing and broad equities hold their ground is a low edge strategy. Respect the range limits and let cash market volume confirm the trend on Monday morning. #Futures #MarketUpdate #SundayNightFutures #FedHike #OilStabilization #Gold4385 #MacroWatch

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1 Hr out........ Still to early to get a good view............ /SI - MEDIUM potential gapper. Looks to the upside, potential gap to the $67 area. Nothing changed. /CL – HIGH RISK Play.....starting to look like a gapper to the upside with war headlines coming out. Upside gap could go to the $95.72, $96.13, $96.50 area or higher. /GC – Leaning to the upside. - trying to build a gap up. Safe-haven movement likely. /MNQ – No change. Looks like it could dip at open. Leaning slightly to the downside. Last signal at close = Bearish. /M2K - No change. Leaning to the downside at the moment. At past resistance on the topside. Not expecting and gap or pronounced moves here at open. Happy Trading!!

2 Hr out........ Certainly too early to tell, but here is the look at this point........................Not planning to trade silver, just because I rarely ever do, but it made #1 on my list. /SI - HIGH potential gapper. Looks to the upside, potential gap to the $67 area. /CL – HIGH RISK Play.....could go either way. possible "soft" open. Upside gap could go to the $95.72, $96.13, $96.50 area. /GC – Leaning to the upside. - 50/50 potential upside gap at open. may continue down. /MNQ – Looks like it could dip at open. Leaning slightly to the downside. Last signal at close = Bearish. /M2K - Leaning to the downside at the moment. At past resistance on the topside. Not expecting and gap or pronounced moves here at open. Happy Trading!!

After the unbiased outlooks and information it's time to look at my own bias for market open this afternoon. Here's my personal watchlist ranked top to bottom for market open and gap potential. I'm not as convinced that oil will be as hot as some predict. We shall see!! Happy Trading!! 1. /SIL, Micro Silver Futures Bias: Strong Bullish Support / Resistance: $65.20 | $68.50 Gap Potential: HIGH (Upside Breakout) Sunday Open Plan: Retains the top spot after settling near $67.15 on Friday (+1.59%). Continued strength in precious metals and dollar softness keep /SIL in a premier breakout posture. Higher beta than gold makes it prime for high-conviction continuation bids on open targeting $68.00+. 2. /CL, Crude Oil Futures Bias: Volatile / Bullish Support / Resistance: $95.50 | $101.50 Gap Potential: HIGH (Geopolitical / Headline Risk) Sunday Open Plan: WTI crude traded into the $96.00–$100.30 zone heading into the weekend. Geopolitical friction and Middle East export disruptions maintain severe raw gap risk. Watch for immediate gap opens outside Friday's range on any fresh transit or supply news flow. 3. /GC, Gold Futures Bias: Bullish Support / Resistance: $4,410 | $4,510 Gap Potential: Moderate (Upside Bias) Sunday Open Plan: Holding firm in the $4,425–$4,475 region backed by dovish monetary policy expectations and safe-haven flows. Offers a clean, structured trend follow-through setup on with lower volatility than silver. 4. /MNQ, Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures Bias: Moderately Bullish Support / Resistance: 29,350 | 29,750 Gap Potential: Moderate Sunday Open Plan: Tech led equity indices into the weekend, with active contracts trading in the 29,440–29,740 range. Easing yield pressure provides a solid tailwind for growth. Watch for an orderly drift toward 29,750+ if bond yields remain quiet at the open. 5. /M2K, Micro E-mini Russell 2000 Futures Bias: Moderately Bullish (Tactical Squeeze) Support / Resistance: 2,180 | 2,240 Gap Potential: Low/Moderate Sunday Open Plan: Hyper-sensitive to rate expectations and credit spreads. Benefits directly when yields soften, positioning small-cap futures for a continuation squeeze off support if buyers carry momentum into Sunday evening. 6. /MES, Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish Support / Resistance: 5,830 | 5,910 Gap Potential: Low Sunday Open Plan: Core benchmark anchor holding steady in a balanced consolidation range. Solid tech weighting helps offset cyclical drag. Ideal for standard Sunday night Opening Range Breakout (ORB) entries once market volume builds. 7. /PL, Platinum Futures Bias: Mildly Bullish (Sympathy) Support / Resistance: $1,340 | $1,410 Gap Potential: Low Sunday Open Plan: Moving higher in sympathy with the broader precious metals rally. Lacks the independent speculative volume of /SIL, making it best reserved as a secondary vehicle if silver stretches too far to enter safely. 8. /MYM, Micro E-mini Dow Jones Futures Bias: Bearish / Relative Weakness Support / Resistance: 43,100 | 43,650 Gap Potential: Low Sunday Open Plan: Lags the broader equity market as financial and industrial heavyweights face drag. Lacks tech drivers or metal catalysts, keeping it as the primary candidate for relative weakness short setups against /MNQ or /SIL. Futures trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors.

The Opening Edge Sunday Futures Open Outlook September 20, 2026 Tonight’s open enters a fast-moving, multi-front headline environment following a major overnight wave of geopolitical and central bank developments. Over the weekend, CENTCOM officially announced that over 1 billion barrels of crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past two months under U.S. naval mine clearance and escort operations, driving shipping volume to a six-month high. However, physical supply risks immediately flared elsewhere: a massive Ukrainian drone attack hit the major Gazprom Neft Kapotnya Oil Refinery in Moscow overnight, while Houthi drone and missile strikes targeted Saudi infrastructure, including jet fuel facilities in Riyadh. In global monetary policy, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 bps to 1.25%, its highest level in 31 years, while Standard Chartered and major desks updated forecasts to project two additional Federal Reserve rate hikes into 2027 following Chair Warsh's hawkish stance. WTI crude oil futures (/CL) enter the bell settled near $95.00/bbl (Brent near $103.0000, balancing CENTCOM’s Hormuz transit gains against active energy infrastructure strikes in Russia and Saudi Arabia. Precious metals enter the open with December gold (/GC) holding resilient near $4,415.60/oz and silver (/SI) near $66.25/oz as safe haven bids counter rising real yields. Meanwhile, equity index futures (/ES settled at 7,650.50, /NQ at 26,522.55) face cross-currents between a 10-year Treasury yield pushing toward 5.00%–5.25% and ongoing AI sector capital deployment. The primary tell out of the gate tonight is CENTCOM Transit Progress vs. Moscow/Riyadh Infrastructure Shocks. If crude oil (/CL) aggressively re-gaps higher toward $98.00–$100.00 on the refinery and airport strike headlines, rising energy input costs will compound 5.00% Treasury yield friction and test equity index dip buyers. But if /ES and /NQ hold Friday's settlement floors, systematic CTA momentum buyers will look to stage a relief drive. Watch the first 30/60 minutes closely with central banks tightening globally and energy assets under active fire, opening execution will be extremely fast. Energy Desk /CL Crude Oil The market is digesting a complex double-headline weekend: CENTCOM confirmed mine clearance and naval escorts pushed Hormuz transit to a six-month high, but overnight drone strikes hit the major Kapotnya refinery in Moscow while Houthi strikes targeted Riyadh jet fuel infrastructure. What to watch: The size of the initial up gap at the bell, and whether commercial buyers step in to re-establish war premiums above $97.50. Comments: High headline velocity. Physical infrastructure threats in Russia and Saudi Arabia are directly challenging CENTCOM transit optimism. Opening Edge: If /CL holds above $97.20 through the first 30 minutes, expect momentum funds to target an immediate drive toward the $100.00 handle. /NG Natural Gas Natural gas enters the session trading near $2.92/MMBtu, balancing shoulder-season domestic storage builds against global LNG transit demand out of the Persian Gulf. What to watch: Updated late-September weather forecasts and Asian LNG shipment flows through the Strait. Comments: Thin liquidity alert. Watch for erratic stop-runs if overnight trading overlaps with shifting regional weather updates. Opening Edge: If /NG clears and defends $2.95 out of the gate, look for speculative longs to drive a fast push toward $3.05. Metals Desk /GC Gold December gold futures enter tonight's trade at $4,415.60/oz, holding a firm safe-haven stance as weekend geopolitical strikes in Moscow and Riyadh offset pressure from the BOJ rate hike and 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 5.00%. What to watch: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) behavior and Asian cash session physical demand following the Bank of Japan's rate increase. Comments: Resilient safe-haven anchor. Ongoing escalation in European and Middle Eastern energy infrastructure continues to floor hard asset bids. Opening Edge: A clean hourly close above $4,425 early tonight confirms institutional buyers are actively absorbing yield pressure to accumulate hard safety assets. /SI Silver Silver enters the session hovering near $66.25/oz, keeping a strong technical posture backed by precious metal rotation and strategic industrial demand. What to watch: Relative strength versus gold out of the gate and speculative industrial positioning in early Asian trade. Comments: High beta mover. Silver remains hyper-sensitive to moves in real yields and dollar fluctuations. Opening Edge: If silver clears and defends $66.80 early tonight, expect speculative long volume to re-accelerate toward $68.00. Equity Index Desk /ES S&P 500 Futures S&P 500 futures settled Friday at 7,650.50 (+0.20%), navigating "Triple Witching" expiration while absorbing updated bank forecasts projecting two additional Fed rate hikes into 2027. What to watch: Whether overnight trade defends Friday's settlement floor or leaks toward the 7,620 support cluster under 10-year yield pressure (5.00%–5.25%). Comments: Yield-sensitive consolidation. Equity bulls need to hold baseline support to prevent a broader multi week corrective sequence. Opening Edge: Holding above 7,645 in the first hour confirms institutional buyer support, setting up an early relief push toward 7,680. /NQ Nasdaq Futures Nasdaq futures settled Friday at 26,522.55 (+0.40%), led by AI infrastructure spending while digesting global monetary tightening (BOJ +25 bps). What to watch: 10-year Treasury yield direction in early Asian trade and relative performance against /ES. Comments: Growth proxy. Highly sensitive to any upward momentum in 10-year Treasury yields above the 5.00% threshold. Opening Edge: If /NQ holds above 26,500 in the first 30 minutes, momentum algorithms will target an immediate retest of 26,650. /YM Dow Futures Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled Friday at 51,682.64 (-0.20%), monitored closely for blue-chip value stability amid global shipping and energy news. What to watch: Sector rotation between traditional blue-chip value and defensive lines at the bell. Comments: Slower mover. Essential for confirming if broader market breadth is stabilizing. Opening Edge: If /YM reclaims 51,750 early, expect blue-chip value buying to stabilize broader equity index sentiment. /RTY Russell 2000 Futures The "Truth Teller." Small caps closed Friday at 2,860.40 (-0.50%), reflecting sensitivity to elevated borrowing costs as terminal rate forecasts shift higher. What to watch: Early market breadth clues and short-covering interest at the open. Opening Edge: If /RTY leads an overnight /ES bounce, it confirms authentic, broad-based market risk appetite. Monday's Opening Edge Grain Desk /ZC Corn December corn futures enter the week at $5.27 1/2 after easing 3 cents on Friday. The market is weighing late-summer Western Belt harvest activity against Black Sea logistics and global supply adjustments. What to watch: Early-week harvest progress reports across the Western Corn Belt and updated 6–10 day precipitation maps. Comments: Harvest baseline. Tighter global stocks continue to provide structural support beneath seasonal harvest pressure. Opening Edge: If December corn holds above $5.25 at the 8:00 PM ET reopen, look for commercial end-users to defend technical support and spark a bounce back toward $5.32. /ZW Wheat December Chicago wheat enters the session at $7.14 1/4 after pulling back 12 3/4 cents on Friday, as traders monitor Black Sea export shipping news following overnight drone strikes in the Moscow region. What to watch: Russian export price floors and international tender activity out of North Africa and the Middle East. Comments: High beta ag leader. Tends to trigger rapid automated order flow across the broader ag floor during thin overnight hours. Opening Edge: If wheat reclaims $7.20 in the first hour of ag trade, expect fund buying to spill over and lift corn and soybeans. /ZS Soybeans November soybeans enter tonight's trade at $13.03 1/2 (-16 1/4 cents on Friday), balancing harvest progress against steady domestic crush margins and export demand out of Asia. What to watch: 8:00 PM ET weather map updates and Chinese import buying announcements. Comments: Demand-supported. Commercial end-users remain active on technical pullbacks to cover processing requirements. Opening Edge: Holding the $13.00 psychological floor at the reopen signals commercial support, setting up a recovery push toward $13.15. Livestock Desk /LE Live Cattle October live cattle futures enter the week at $215.92 (+27 cents on Friday), backed by tight domestic animal inventories and firm cash cattle trade. What to watch: Cash trade expectations for the coming week and boxed beef cutout movement. Comments: Structural firming. Tight domestic cattle numbers continue supporting the long-term trend. Opening Edge: If October live cattle defend $215.50 out of the gate, expect buyers to target a retest of last week's highs near $217.00. /GF Feeder Cattle October feeder cattle enter the week at $323.50 (-87 cents on Friday), continuing to track feed input costs and pasture conditions closely. What to watch: The 8:00 PM ET ag reopen. Any sudden movement in corn input costs will impact feeder cattle execution. Comments: High margin sensitivity. Softer grain prices provide immediate breathing room for feeder cattle margins. Opening Edge: If corn futures open flat to lower at 8:00 PM ET, look for feeder cattle to catch an immediate short-covering bid back toward $325.50. /HE Lean Hogs October lean hogs enter the week at $78.10 (-80 cents on Friday), navigating seasonal pork cutout trends and packer slaughter pace. Comments: Technical range. Watch packer margin adjustments and late summer cutout movement. Opening Edge: If /HE holds above $77.80 early, expect range-bound traders to step in for an early push toward $79.00. Things To Watch Immediately After Open Does Crude Oil (/CL) gap higher toward $98.00+ on overnight Moscow/Riyadh infrastructure strikes or absorb CENTCOM's Hormuz transit report? Does /ES defend Friday's 7,650 baseline or leak lower under 5.00%+ Treasury yield expectations? Do Gold (/GC) and Silver (/SI) attract immediate safe-haven buying to counter the BOJ rate hike? Does /RTY show relative strength over /NQ out of the gate? How do grains (/ZC & /ZS) and livestock (/GF) respond as the ag floor reopens at 8:00 PM ET? Opening Levels That Matter Friday Settlement Baseline: S&P 500 at 7,650.50, WTI Crude at $96.08, Dec Gold at $4,415.60, Dec Corn at $5.27 1/2. S&P 500 Key Floor: 7,620.00, holding above keeps short-term momentum in favor of bulls. WTI Crude Pivot: $97.20, holding above opens a direct path back toward $100.00+. Gold Structural Support: $4,400.00, the key level to confirm Friday's hold has real institutional backing. The Bottom Line Tonight’s session hinges on whether energy markets prioritize CENTCOM's transit gains or re-price risks from overnight strikes in Moscow and Saudi Arabia. Keep your eyes squarely on the triple-node relationship between /CL, 10-Year Yields (~5.00%), and /ES. If crude surges while yields stay sticky and equity futures leak below Friday's baseline, big money is executing a cautious, defensive playbook. Let the opening 15-minute noise clear out, avoid chasing Sunday gaps, and execute cleanly at your hard technical levels. Futures trading involves significant risk. Information provided is for educational purposes only. #TheOpeningEdge #FuturesTrading #MarketOpen #MacroTrading #EnergyShock #InflationWatch

Soybean Futures Weekly Outlook - September 14-18, 2026 Top News Story: Pre-Summit China Flash Purchases Push Futures Past $13.10 as Harvest Pace Accelerates The soybean complex maintained a firm stance near multi-month highs this week, with benchmark November futures settling around $13.03 1/4 per bushel into Friday afternoon's close. The board absorbed post-WASDE profit taking and pushed back above the $13.00 handle, underpinned by aggressive export buying ahead of upcoming high level U.S.-China diplomatic talks. On Friday morning, the USDA confirmed another private export flash sale of 111,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery, adding to a multi-week buying spree that has pushed Beijing past the halfway mark of its 25 million metric ton annual procurement target. While early Midwest harvest results and field progress continue to add physical supply to country pipelines, robust domestic processing demand reinforced by strong soy oil usage has successfully prevented seasonal harvest pressure from breaking key technical floors. Market Notes Harvest activity picked up across the central Midwest this week under generally dry field conditions. Monday's USDA Crop Progress report confirmed 95% of U.S. soybean acreage actively setting pods, with 38% dropping leaves and early cutting underway across southern production regions. National condition ratings held steady at 61% good-to-excellent. Locally in Nebraska, dryland harvest is gaining momentum across eastern counties, with combine yield reports coming in mixed to favorable following timely August moisture. Irrigated fields continue to show strong pod weight, though late season dryness in non irrigated pockets capped top-end yields. On the physical cash market, aggressive commercial processor bidding kept local basis firm, with the cmdtyView national average cash bean price consolidating near $12.35 per bushel. Watchlist Performance The futures board closed out Friday afternoon's session with modest consolidation following early-week gains. Performance since Monday open: September 2026 (ZSU26): $13.10 0/0 (Last) | -$0.06 0/0 (Day) | +$0.31 3/4 (Since Monday Open) November 2026 (ZSX26): $13.03 1/4 (Last) | -$0.16 4/0 (Day) | +$0.23 3/4 (Since Monday Open) January 2027 (ZSF27): $13.15 1/2 (Last) | -$0.15 2/0 (Day) | +$0.24 1/2 (Since Monday Open) March 2027 (ZSH27): $13.24 0/0 (Last) | -$0.14 0/0 (Day) | +$0.23 3/4 (Since Monday Open) Trend: Across the curve, performance since Monday's opening bell reflects solid net gains of 23 to 31 cents. Benchmark November futures reclaimed the $13.00 threshold mid week, holding above initial technical support despite Friday's late-session profit taking. Cash Trade: The cmdtyView national average cash bean price consolidated near $12.35 per bushel, supported by tight country pipeline bids. Technical Note: November futures (ZSX26) established firm technical support at the $12.85 to $12.90 layer, with overhead resistance holding near the recent peak of $13.25 to $13.30. Key Market Factors Supply Constraints: While the USDA's 52.8 bu/acre yield baseline and 4.535 billion bushel crop estimate confirm a record production year, Midwest harvest rains in select pockets have slowed field work slightly, limiting rapid country elevator arrivals. Demand Drivers: Chinese buyers remain highly active, taking advantage of daily flash windows ahead of high-level trade discussions. Domestic crush demand continues to run at maximum capacity, absorbing physical bushels as fast as elevators can pipeline them. External Influences: Energy markets traded higher, with crude oil holding firm above $103 per barrel, which supported vegetable oil values and preserved strong processor crush margins. Technicals: Critical downside support for November beans is mapped at $12.85. Overhead technical resistance sits at $13.25, followed by secondary resistance at $13.40. Upcoming USDA Reports Expectations With the September WASDE digested, trade focus turns to the upcoming USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Wednesday, September 30, which will establish official old-crop carryout figures ending August 31. Nearer term, traders will analyze Monday's Crop Progress report (September 21) to track national harvest advancement percentages. Funds Activity Managed money managers maintained a moderate net-long posture this week. While systematic accounts clipped long exposure during Friday's late pullback, non-commercial traders remain hesitant to initiate aggressive short positions while daily Chinese export flash announcements remain active. Outlook for the Week Ahead When electronic trading resumes Sunday evening, price action will be driven by harvest pace acceleration across the Corn Belt and news surrounding U.S.-China trade talks. If heavy combine momentum triggers widespread country hedging, November futures could test support near $12.85. Conversely, if export flash sales continue or trade talks produce bullish headlines, expect another retest of the $13.20 to $13.25 resistance zone. Key events: Weekend harvest weather monitoring; USDA Weekly Crop Progress & Conditions (September 21); U.S.-China High Level Trade Talks; Daily Export Flash Sales monitoring. Strategy: For 2026 new-crop production, November futures holding above $13.00 provide a strong pricing window. Producers should use this strength to advance harvest sales or lock in put option floors around $12.80-$13.00 to protect margins against seasonal delivery pressure as combine activity reaches peak velocity over the next two weeks. #Soybeans #CropProgress #ExportSales #AgTrade #Harvest26

Soybean - Regional Processor Bids & Crush Report Regional Processor Bids & Current Market Data The grain complex is operating under intense macro volatility this Tuesday morning. November CBOT soybean futures are holding firmly in the $12.94–$13.09/bu range, supported by aggressive short-covering and massive cost-push inflation from outside energy markets. WTI Crude Oil has surged past $103/bbl following renewed strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, pulling domestic vegetable oils and biofuel feedstocks sharply higher. Processor cash basis across the Western Corn Belt remains aggressively firm as crushers run at near-capacity to build spot coverage against early combine deliveries. AGP David City NE Sep/Oct $12.42 -52 cents AGP Eagle Grove IA Sep/Oct $12.37 -57 cents Shell Rock Soy IA Sep/Oct $12.54 -40 cents AGP Manning IA Sep/Oct $12.47 -47 cents AGP St. Joseph MO Sep/Oct $12.77 -17 cents AGP Dawson MN Sep/Oct $11.92 -102 cents AGP Aberdeen SD Sep/Oct $12.12 -82 cents CBOT Soybean Futures (November): $12.94 ½ /bu (Trading near $12.95 after hitting a session peak of $13.09/bu) Soybean Oil (October): 76.40 ¢/lb (Surging alongside energy, backed by tight renewable diesel feedstock stocks) Soybean Meal (October): $348.10 /ton (Supported by steady domestic livestock intake and export additions) National Cash Index: ~$12.50 /bu (Reflecting strong spot baseline bids across interior processing plants) Macro Market Analysis The global macroeconomic picture has turned hyper-sensitive to outside energy shocks. With WTI crude breaking into the $103–$105/bbl range, biofuel mandates and renewable diesel margins are injecting heavy structural support directly into the soy complex. The South American & Export Channel: While Brazil continues its routine export flow, China has taken advantage of recent price swings to secure spot U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest positions, helping absorb early-season harvest pressure faster than expected. NOPA Processing & Volume Check Domestic processing demand remains an underlying structural anchor for the soybean complex: Crush Operations: Processors are operating near maximum daily capacity. High crude prices have drastically widened soy oil crush margins, keeping processing incentives near annual highs. Soybean Oil Inventories: Continuous inventory drawdowns across member facilities continue to favor oil-share growth over meal within internal processing formulas. Logistics, Biofuels & Outside Energy The Middle East Risk Premium: Escalating military actions against commercial tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf energy hubs have completely re-priced global energy risk. WTI Breaks $103/bbl: West Texas Intermediate crude futures rallied past $103.30 per barrel today. This massive energy shock is transmitting direct cost-push momentum into domestic soybean oil and renewable diesel feedstocks. Weekly Crop Progress & Livestock Status Yesterday afternoon's USDA Crop Progress report confirmed that the 2026 harvest is moving rapidly: Soybean Harvest at 6% Complete: USDA reported that 6% of the national soybean crop is harvested running at double the 5-year average pace of 3%. Leaf Drop at 44%: 44% of the soybean crop is actively dropping leaves (vs. 37% 5-year average), signaling fast biological maturity across major producing states. Condition Ratings Unchanged at 58%: National soybean condition ratings held steady at 58% good to excellent (29% fair, 13% poor/very poor). Ratings remain 5 points below last year’s pace, keeping yield debate active as combine results roll in. Corn Harvest at 8%: The national corn harvest reached 8% complete, accelerating regional logistics and interior storage turnover. Looking Ahead & Action Plan Producer Action Plan: Take immediate advantage of November futures holding near the upper $12.90–$13.10 window driven by $103+ crude oil. With national harvest progress running at twice its normal pace (6% complete), execute scale in sales to lock in profitable delivery margins before heavy combine pressure hits local elevators over the next two weeks. Speculator Focus: Watch the $103–$105 crude oil channel alongside the November $13.10–$13.20 technical resistance level. If energy strength persists, oil share expansion will keep crush margins exceptionally profitable despite growing spot grain supply. Harvest Pressure Watch: As combine activity expands across the Corn Belt over the coming 10 days, focus shifts from crop condition scores to realized yield monitor reports and regional elevator basis adjustments. #Soybeans #SoyCrush #AgMarketing