BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoinNow everything starts to change for Bitcoin
While Bitcoin recently set a new All-Time High (ATH) in price, its MVRV ratio hasn't hit the peaks seen in past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021). Previously, MVRV also peaked with prices, often exceeding 3.5-4, signifying high unrealized profit. This current disparity, where a price ATH doesn't coincide with an MVRV peak, can be explained by the tremendous rise in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap.
The MVRV ratio is Market Cap divided by Realized Cap. A significantly higher Realized Cap (the denominator) naturally lowers the MVRV ratio, even if Market Cap (the numerator) is at an ATH. This increased Realized Cap means more coins have moved and their cost basis reset at higher prices in this upcycle. In other words, the network's aggregate cost basis is now considerably higher than during previous ATHs. This suggests the current market situation is different: perhaps more coins are in stronger hands at these higher valuations, or the "froth" or overvaluation typical of past MVRV peaks hasn't occurred to the same degree. It might also indicate that significant profit-taking has been absorbed by new capital at these elevated prices, pushing the network's Realized Cap higher.
View original →BTCBitcoinBullish(Nuanced)Bitcoin Is History Repeating Itself?
The on-chain chart above hints that Bitcoin may be repeating a familiar pattern. Two key points are highlighted — Point 1 (2025) and Point 2 (2018) — both marking the end of a bear market phase and a potential shift toward bullish momentum.
In 2018, after months in the red zone, the market broke through and entered a bullish period. Now, in 2025, we see a similar move as Bitcoin exits the bear territory and approaches a key threshold again.
The lower indicator also mirrors the 2018 recovery, suggesting renewed positive sentiment. If this pattern holds, we could be on the verge of another bull run.
Although external factors can always shift the outcome, the historical similarities are striking. Bitcoin may once again be at a turning point, and the question remains: Is history repeating itself?
View original →BTCBitcoinBearish(Nuanced)Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Giving Up? Realized Price Signals Trouble
In the chart above, we can observe a notable crossover in the UTXO Realized Price bands. Specifically, the short-term cohorts — 1 week to 1 month (green line) and 1 month to 3 months (purple line) — have begun to cross below the mid-term cohort of 3 months to 6 months (blue line).
This behavior may indicate a shift in market sentiment, suggesting that short-term holders are realizing losses or that the cost basis of newer market participants is now below that of mid-term holders. Historically, such crossovers have been associated with bearish phases or corrections in the market. It is essential to monitor whether this trend continues, as it could potentially signal a cooling-off period or a broader consolidation phase for Bitcoin.
View original →BTCBitcoinBearish(Nuanced)Bitcoin Bitcoin Cooling Down? Key Metrics Suggest Trouble Ahead
The chart titled "Bitcoin: Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands" shows Bitcoin's price about the realized price of coins held by short-term holders, specifically those who acquired their BTC between 1 week to 1 month (green line) and 1 month to 3 months (purple line) ago. Historically, an upward trend in these age bands often marks the beginning of a bull market. For example, in late 2020, early 2024, and again in late 2024, we can see that these realized prices started to rise before significant price increases, signaling early accumulation phases.
At market tops such as April 2021, November 2021, and March 2025, the 1m–3m realized price tends to flatten or turn downward, indicating that short-term holders are starting to take profits and distribute coins. During bear markets, like in 2022, these age bands typically trend downward and often form a support base during price bottoms, as seen in late 2022 and mid-2023.
As of early 2025, the price has begun to correct after Bitcoin peaked above $100K. The 1m–3m cohort's realized price is now curving downward, suggesting that recent buyers may be entering loss territory. If this trend continues, it could point to further market cooling or an extended consolidation period.
View original →BTCBitcoinBearish(Nuanced)Bitcoin Is Demand on Bitcoin Weakening?
In 2024, Bitcoin was in demand in March (2) and December (3). That is the first time we have observed two peaks in Demand Momentum close like this. After the March momentum peak, we see a serious decrease (B).
In general, after sequencing peaks on momentum, we see price and demand fluctuation and then gradually decrease like being at between 2017 August (1) and 2018 December (1.1).
But sure we need to pay attention to Market Size, Volume, Liquidity, Interest, etc. changed significantly. But still, the final view is aiming for a downtrend on demand.
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