Investor and founder. @Capriole_fund Posts not investment advice.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @caprioleio to submit corrections.
Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over. Bitcoin has broken out of the deep discount zone. Comparable to 2020 and 2023. Price went up triple digits from here each time. This is a good thing as it's a clear momentum and valuation shift. The discount isn't as deep, but better things happen faster. That said, both prior times we did chop around here for another 6-8 weeks before moving up. If it's like 2017? Straight up from here.
View original →Is AI on the verge of a monster short squeeze? Burry is short some of the biggest AI names. While being long stuffed toys, cork shoes and microplastic cloths (literally). But he just stated he will cover his shorts if we approach the highs. AI is still down 20% from the highs. Stocks like Micron (MU) are trading on a 6 PE with next years demand booked and chip exports (demand) up 30% to new highs in the month of September alone. Burry is 10%+ underwater on MU and many of his positions. He has 300,000 subs paying $millions a year to copy trade these bearish AI plays and long dying retail. The market isn’t ready for the face ripper of AI expanding demand and the capitulation of the 300.
View original →US investors have never been this bearish, while the market is printing new highs. This normally happens at a bottom. https://t.co/X6XfPAIcYj
View original →We are now entering the seasonally most bullish part of the year. Q4 is always the best. But especially so in midterm years like 2026. https://t.co/DYA91AcHb4
View original →We have some very bullish opportunities emerging today in crypto + equities. Stuff that only happens once every 3-4 years. Enjoy it. It won't last forever. But damn it feels good.
View original →Bitcoin is clamped between institutional cost bases. Below the average purchase price of Treasuries and just above that of ETFs. The ultimate breakout here will likely decide our next 6 months. https://t.co/O16fM1XHRy
View original →Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto or this could get ugly https://t.co/AHjxUHigUN
View original →IONQ is publicly stating they expect to break Bitcoin within 2 years. But we still have no upgrade roadmap or consensus on a solution. https://t.co/kOOlDiAn2r
View original →It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run. https://t.co/YEasR6905O
View original →Any movement on quantum proofing Bitcoin will drive price way higher. Everytime I bull post, people come out to say "but quantum". I have been very consistent on quantum risk being priced in, BTC being in a value zone and quantum being an upside catalyst since February. https://t.co/SyrWQQ783J
View original →"That sits in that four to five year range, give or take, a few years"
"That means it's more than priced in"
"Double digits probably"
"I think that would discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight"
"If the Bitcoin core team says in two or three months: 'this is our roadmap, we're gonna solve it in the next two years, these are the rough steps we'll take,' that would be amazing news"
"This is the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from money supply and global liquidity flows. Why? 2025 was the first year Bitcoin entered the Quantum Event Horizon. The timeframe to a non-zero probability of a quantum machine breaking Bitcoin's cryptography is now less than the estimated time it will take to upgrade Bitcoin. Money is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly."
"Bitcoin treasury companies just flipped to net buying again…Institutions are once again net buyers of Bitcoin."
"The price of BTC could dip below $50,000 if the protocol is not quantum-ready by 2028"
"quantum computing could pose a genuine threat to Bitcoin within the next two to nine years unless the network upgrades to quantum-resistant cryptography"
"I believe we should burn all coins that do not migrate to BIP-360 by 2028"
