BTCBitcoinBullishBitcoin

Today on

Bitcoin treasury companies in capitulation. Yes this is a good thing historically. The ratio of cumulative buys to sells just dropped below 90%. This has only happened 3 other times, all were dillectible opportunities. https://t.co/Zld0blJHX6

BTCBitcoinBullishBitcoin

1w ago on

I was wrong. When investing timing is just as important as thesis. The fact we had the biggest heist of all time ($6B hack) and Bitcoin is holding at $77K three days later is nothing short of remarkable. The market is telling us it doesn’t care and the market shouldn’t be ignored during such major events. In fact the price reaction here can only be interpreted as bullish so far. Therefore, I am wrong on either timing or thesis. I expect the risks from AI and QC will only continue to grow, and I will keep a close ear to the ground. My hope is Bitcoin Core will take action soon to alleviate the LT threat. Bitcoin, I am back.

BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin

1w ago on

As you know for a long time I have been concerned about the Quantum threat on Bitcoin, and our industry's effective zero progress on solving it. Over the last 6 months the AI threat has also become large, perhaps a greater threat to the ecosystem generally. Today's Binance hack is a major event. If the king can't protect itself, how can any other exchange be trusted? How can "smart" contracts be trusted? How can elliptic curve cryptography be trusted? The answer to all of the above is they can't. Tether halted $1.8B of the Binance hack today, showing the need for a hu-man in the middle. If it's BTC or any other coin in a hack? No one is stepping in to save you. Decentralization of trust doesn't work during the birth of Superintelligence. I've been through a dozen hacks and the failure of the biggest exchanges, from Bitmex operations ceasing on 12 March 2020 to the FTX fraud in 2022. Nothing compares to this moment in time, not because of the severity of the hack, but because of what it means. The historic events were standalone and brought big market opportunities. This is the opposite. Today we can't trust cold wallets. The Ledger supply chain is cooked, Coldcard is a Cheetos door lock. And now the world's best exchanges are not safe either. The biggest strength of crypto in the past was decentralization - removing the human. Today this is fast becoming the biggest weakness. Banks can block wires, they can refund hacked accounts and they have insurance. The need for "rollbacks" grows with AI threats. This is something I couldn't have imagined saying 5 years ago, but IT security simply cannot keep pace with the threats in a super intelligence world. Exploits are discovered, utilized within minutes, then patches are made and finally (days or weeks later) deployed. Ultimately the Super Intelligence wave will harden all infrastructure, as better and more robust encryption is discovered tested and deployed. But we know with certainty that what Bitcoin has today isn't good enough, and the lifespan of elyptic curves is less than 5 years from today, due to Quantum alone. I said early this year, Bitcoin won't get a new ATH until a Core governed Quantum Proof roadmap is established. ATH's are looking more and more distant today. It's becoming harder and harder to be a long-term crypto investor.

BTCBitcoinBullish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

2w ago on

No guarantees (there never are) but when Bitcoin's Put / Call ratio gets this extreme, the downside locally has been relatively capped. https://t.co/sFvkWPlRqR

BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin

3w ago on

Bitcoin is already measured in Wattage. There’s a 1-1 relationship between energy and price. See my 2019 paper: https://t.co/KNWo3NULpx https://t.co/c9b3mHHxWb