Dividendology

They say the average annual return of the market is typically between 7% - 10%. So as investors, that's the return we should typically expect, right? Well, no. While the market average is typically 7% to 10%, there is a wide standard deviation, meaning that most years the market does not have a return within that average range. In fact, it's just as common for the market to return 0% to -10% as it is for it to return 0% to 10%. And it's actually much more common for the market to have returns of 10% to 30% than the average. And this is why most people can't handle investing. It can be emotional- If you let it. Having a year where you are up 30%, followed by a year where you are down 30% can be quite the emotional rollercoaster. This causes people to jump in and out of the market at random times. And the data tells us historically speaking that investors are quite bad at trying to time the market. So what does this mean for us? Don't expect the average over short periods of time. In the last few years, this has been $SPY results: S&P 500 in 2022: -19.64% S&P 500 in 2023: 24.20% S&P 500 in 2024: 23.31% S&P 500 in 2024: 16.29% See what I mean? @OKavrak

$O Realty Income, who was at one point this outperforming the market by double digits, just hit a new 52 week low. REITs are not enjoying an environment with a 5%+ 10YR Treasury. https://t.co/DbOIdkBMOI https://t.co/VZEtEfyzBv

It's obvious that the goal is to bring on more institutional traders, and it's likely that will end up happening. Institutions are most likely not going to commit substantial capital to long-dated markets if every position must be fully collateralized for months or years. This could change things. Of course, there are immediate benefits to retail as well. EX: Kalshi’s proposal will bring deeper liquidity and better pricing to its markets. Stay tuned.

Pretty wild how strong returns have been this year considering we've seen substantial multiple compression across the market. This is the magic of record earnings growth taking place. https://t.co/hgL4decyX3

It's crazy looking at year to date charts of a REIT vs the S&P 500. Many REITs were significantly outperforming the market early this year. The market was pricing in 3 rate hikes to start the year while REITs were trading at their lowest multiple in years. Then the rate environment completely shifted, and REITs have seen a serious pullback in the last couple of months. Charted out is $ADC vs the S&P 500 year to date. Price movements align almost perfectly with the way the rate environment has changed.

This is pretty wild. AI has completely reshaped the S&P 500 since ChatGPT launched. Nvidia alone has contributed roughly 16% of the index’s gain while its stock climbed more than 1,000%. https://t.co/adyigMC21M

Novo Nordisk is now down 8% on the day, after releasing their 2030 goals: • $23 billion in obesity sales • 5+ new multi-blockbuster drugs • 10x more patients served with oral GLP-1s So why is the stock down? The elephant in the room is Ozempic and Wegovy losing key patent protection next decade while nearly every major pharma company races into obesity care. $NVO is now down more than 70% from its peak.

What is the ‘new 100k’ in 2026? https://t.co/vQrnaVkgfC

TOM LEE JUST WENT ON CNBC AND STATED- "Q4 WILL BE THE START OF ONE OF THE BIGGEST MARKET RALLIES IN OUR LIFETIME" https://t.co/1FrBl70IPK

A great company can still be a terrible investment. Walmart’s business continued growing, yet the stock underperformed. Microsoft grew EPS throughout the 2000s, yet its stock lost nearly half its value. Why? Valuation. I recently explain the 3 sources of stock market returns, and how I use them to identify quality dividend growth investments: 1. Earnings growth 2. Dividends 3. Valuation changes Understanding where your future return must come from is far more important than simply finding a “great business.” Read it here: https://t.co/NW7cJNEucJ