TemptingBeef

Noticing quite a bit of BTC leaving Bitfinex and can't help but feel that this has something to do with the drop off in BTCUSDLONGS. BTC used as collateral for longs on Finex since May which have all since closed in huge profit and now taken off the exchange into cold storage. At the same time, a spike in stablecoin reserves. ETH continues to flow in, likely used for long positions on ETH where we're all expecting more upside eventually.    

There might be a correlation between Bitfinex's BTC Reserves and BTCUSDLONGS. The explanation is straightforward, BTC used as collateral for long positions. A similar correlation was spotted last month with their ETH reserves and ETHUSDLONGS. Sorry for the crude attempt at correlation between these two metrics but I'm not able to bring BTCUSDLONGS and BTC Reserves onto the same chart.   

Bitcoin is kicking off this week with inflows into exchanges. CryptoQuant alert bot shows inflows into Gemini, Bithumb and Binance. Charts also show an inflow mean spike triggered which shows on the Bitfinex chart.     

Often there is debate about whether reserves are used for spot selling or collateral for derivative positions. Here we can see a correlation between Bitfinex ETH reserves and ETHUSDLONGS. Both increased on 21st June and decreased on 10th July.   

A detailed schematic of Livermore's Speculative Chart for ETH/BTC taking into account volume and exchange reserves of ETH. I think a lot of people expect points 9 and 10 to occur higher than I have drawn but I'm more conservative in my speculation. If it goes higher, great. Volume profile shows clear accumulation in the funnel.   

Some key DeFi altcoins have seen sudden large inflows onto exchange recently which may translate into selling pressure. SUSHI and SNX are the main ones to watch. AAVE too.    

There's a disturbing lack of inflow or outflow mean signals recently, no unusual amounts flowing on or off exchanges. Waiting for the first move that breaks trend here. Meanwhile, netflows were predominantly negative today resulting in lower exchange reserves. BTC bulls successfully defended 33k, a key level.    

I'm here to report that there is not much to report! Despite some good price action this week, there is very little going on with exchange flows. BTC and ETH reserves are going sideways. Stablecoin reserves seeing a slight decline.    

Yesterday over 100k ETH was staked in ETH2.0 deposit contract. This means that the total amount of ETH staked now exceed 5% of the circulating supply.  

Miner to Exchange Flows shows huge amounts of bitcoin transferred to spot exchanges at the beginning of the Wyckoff distribution phase. Miners took the opportunity to distribute enormous amounts of BTC at inflated prices, marked up by derivatives. This can also be seen in Miner to Derivative Exchange Flows. Spot is a clearer picture however.