Neutral
BTC
2d agoShort-term holder profit ratio hit 1.017—97th percentile for the year, with only 9 higher days (all in late August). BTC at $86,198 means recent buyers finally in profit after 265 days...
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Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @thechessonchain to submit corrections.
Short-term holder profit ratio hit 1.017—97th percentile for the year, with only 9 higher days (all in late August). BTC at $86,198 means recent buyers finally in profit after 265 days...
View original →Bitcoin hashrate dropped 10% during a 35% rally—only the third time since 2012 this has happened. All three hashrate-drop rallies rank among the weakest 30%+ moves on record. If hashrate doesn't...
View original →Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium hit a record 103 days negative—but half that streak is just USDT peg drift, not actual selling. Corrected for stablecoin noise, the median premium flips positive and the...
View original →Bitcoin active addresses crashed to 2018-19 levels—the last time we saw this was near the $3,206 bottom. Both 30-day and 100-day EMAs have turned up since July lows, with BTC holding above...
View original →57.5% of Bitcoin supply now in profit, up from 46.2% in June—but every bear market exit since 2012 needed at least 64%. Long-Term Holder SOPR stuck at 0.86 for 51 straight days, well below the 1.0...
View original →Puell Multiple bottomed at 0.53—highest cycle low ever recorded. Each bear has been shallower: 83% drawdown in 2018, 77% in 2022, less since. Sub-0.5 'generational buy' zone may never print again.
View original →NUPL's 100-day EMA has never signaled a cycle bottom without crossing zero—and it's sliding toward that line now at 0.215. The 30-day just crossed below the 100-day on June 2, flashing fading...
View original →Long-term holders spent at a loss for 87 of 176 days in 2026—a pattern seen only in bear markets of 2015, 2018-19, and 2022-23. BTC sits at $60K, down 52% from October's $124,710 peak, with MVRV at...
View original →Bitcoin at $66,700 shows cycle-low valuations with MVRV at 1.23, yet leverage ratio sits near cycle highs at 0.247. The last two times this exact setup appeared—cheap coins plus elevated...
View original →ETH staking rate climbs to 32.4% while price crashed 33% in June. Daily inflows of 50,476 ETH show holders locking up rather than selling. Long-term commitment layer stays intact despite the brutal...
View original →"This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over"
"Previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements, with the 30-day simple moving average of LTH-SOPR remaining above 1 without falling below that level for weeks on end, while total supply in profit should be above 64%."
"Bitcoin's Supply in Profit (%), the share of Bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low"