Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 28 directional calls by @Grizzly on CryptoQuant since Feb 2022: tracked, not yet ranked (below the accuracy-scoring baseline) (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Accurate In—Not enough data10+ calls, 6+ months required
Total Calls28Calls by sourceX0Seeking Alpha0CryptoQuant Verified Author0CryptoQuant28Other0A call is a post, idea, article or rating labelled bullish, bearish or neutral on a tracked asset.
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3/3/2025 on
Bitcoin's Current Corrective Phase: A Historical Pattern Repeating?
Bitcoin is currently shaping its third corrective pattern within its ongoing bullish cycle that began in early 2023, as indicated by the UTXO Age Bands for the 1-3 month and 3-6 month bands.
During the summers of 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin entered multi-month corrective phases, each lasting approximately six months. Throughout these periods, the 3-6 month band trended upwards, closing the gap with the 1-3 month band. This movement historically acted as a resistance zone, where Bitcoin initially faced rejection before breaking through and igniting its next bullish rally.
If history repeats itself, the current correction could persist for another 2 to 3 months, with BTC ranging between $80K and $100K. In this scenario, a decisive breakout above $100K could mark the end of the corrective phase, potentially paving the way for a rally toward $130K.
Market participants should closely watch the structural dynamics of the premium bands, as a confirmed break above resistance could signal the next parabolic leg of Bitcoin’s bull market.
The Exchange Whale Ratio—calculated by dividing the top 10 inflows to spot exchanges by total inflows—is currently at a multi-year high. Since late 2024, this metric has experienced a robust upward surge, though its momentum has slightly moderated over the past two weeks without a definitive reversal.
Historical trends indicate that a downturn in whale deposits on spot exchanges often precedes a bullish Bitcoin rally. Given the substantial influence these market participants exert on Bitcoin’s price dynamics, market observers are closely watching to see if they will reduce their asset inflows to exchanges. Should this metric reverse its current trajectory, it may signal the onset of a broader market recovery.
In previous Bitcoin bullruns, the SOPR Ratio (LTH SOPR/STH SOPR) saw a significant increase alongside the parabolic rise in prices. However, why has this metric seen much slower growth in the current bullrun, even when the cryptocurrency is trading above $100,000, yet remains lower than it was in June 2024?
To answer this question, we must revisit the definition of this metirc. According to CryptoQuant, Higher value of the ratio means higher spent profit of LTH over STH
As more cycles occur in the market, Bitcoin matures, and investors tend to distance themselves from speculative activities. It could be said that they develop a deeper understanding of Bitcoin's value. On the other hand, the entry of institutional players has shifted the dynamics. In fact, the flow of capital to exchanges has decreased, as Bitcoin investors are now adding it to their portfolios as a valuable asset and are unlikely to sell anytime soon.
Given these conditions, the scenario strengthens that we will face new cycles of Bitcoin. In these new cycles, speculative activities will decrease, and Bitcoin will be held as a valuable asset for much longer.
The Impact of the Coinbase Premium Index Amidst Holiday and Liquidity Challenges
After Trump's election win on November 5, Bitcoin's price surged past $100,000, supported by a rising Coinbase Premium Index, which measures The pertcent difference between Coinbase Pro price (USD pair) and Binance price(USDT pair). This increase indicated strong demand from U.S. investors.
However, since December 7, the Coinbase Premium Index has been on a decline, coinciding with a drop in Bitcoin’s price to below $94,000. This shift is likely influenced by a combination of factors, including the seasonal effects of the Christmas holidays, where trading activity tends to slow down, and liquidity challenges in the market. Reduced market participation during the holiday season, alongside limited cash flow, has likely contributed to the price decline.
Bitcoin’s Realized Price Rises to $37K: A Signal of Confidence or Overheating?
Bitcoin’s price has surged from ~$60,000 to ~$100,000 in recent months, pushing the Realized Price from ~$31,000–$32,000 to ~$37,000. This gradual increase highlights several key insights:
1- Capital Inflows: Higher Realized Price reflects new participants entering the market at elevated levels, signaling growing confidence in Bitcoin.
2- Stronger Cost Basis: The rising average acquisition cost strengthens market support during corrections.
3- Reduced Selling Pressure: Long-term holders appear to be holding, reducing sell-side liquidity.
While the widening gap between Market Price and Realized Price might signal short-term overheating, history shows that similar gaps occurred during previous bull runs without halting price growth.
The gradual rise in Realized Price reflects stronger cost basis and sustained confidence, but cautious monitoring is advised to gauge the sustainability of this rally.
