How_to_onchain

If we look at the macro picture, December 10th will be the last day the Fed is withdrawing liquidity from the market, and after that they stop. This means there will be more cash in the system that can be allocated into assets. On top of that, the stock market showed a decent bounce and recovery after the correction the day before yesterday, and we have a high probability of a continued Fed rate-cutting cycle, which also creates a supportive backdrop for growth. The key now is that positive ETF inflows and whale interest continue. In addition, the geopolitical situation in Ukraine could act as a catalyst and bring more confidence to the market’s upside if a peace deal is reached.  

At the moment we’re seeing solid accumulation from whales, and yesterday retail joined in as well. After the sharp ETF unloading, we’re now seeing outflows stabilise and gradually shift into inflows. Combined with a neutral cumulative delta, this gives a decent signal to start considering buys and a potential market reversal.  

Good afternoon everyone. Today I’ve noticed the first solid signals that suggest the correction may be coming to an end. In the next posts I’ll try to describe what I’m seeing and explain exactly what I’ve spotted there. Let’s start with the cumulative delta on spot – today it showed the first good signals and a shift into a neutral backdrop. Historically, this tells us that selling pressure is decreasing. However, if we analyse what happened in April, I would still like to see a re-sweep of the current low for position building – and that’s exactly what I’ll be looking to do in the near future.  

October closed nearly 4% below its monthly open, pointing to growing weakness in BTC. From October 6 to 31, the 1–3 month holder cohort sold around 25% of their accumulated supply, while the 6–12 month cohort offloaded around 10%. After that, selling activity slowed. ETFs: This week, ETFs sold Bitcoin worth approximately $550 million. Derivatives Pressure: Pressure from the derivatives market on the spot market continues to increase, which may indicate a rise in hedge positioning. The metric incorporates open interest, market buy/sell volume, and funding rates. Key Support Zone: If selling continues, the 97–98k zone is expected to act as the first potential support area.     

At the moment, the average purchase price zone of 3–6 month holders is acting as a support area for Bitcoin’s price. In addition, the correction in gold that began last week coincided with new inflows of stablecoins into exchanges. There was also a surge in BTC inflows to accumulating wallets, all of which may indicate a potential rotation of capital into riskier assets. Large wallets have currently slowed their distribution, while the net flow into spot ETFs has turned positive after a week of decline, which may suggest a possible shift in sentiment. The realized price zone of 3–6 month holders at 109,600 currently serves as support. This week, on Wednesday, the FOMC will announce the Fed’s decision on the key rate. Against the backdrop of strong macro data, a policy easing is expected. On Thursday, Trump and Xi will meet in China, which could potentially lead to a trade agreement. If October closes above 109,600, there is a strong chance that a new all-time high in Bitcoin may be seen in the near future.     

Ten days ago, we saw an abnormal spike in profit-taking by long-term holders — the volume was quite impressive, and no such anomalies had been observed over the past year. However, the price continued to be pushed higher. How long this will last is hard to say. Major players, such as investment funds, have entered the game, using BTC as a reserve asset to protect capital from inflation. But how long this trend will continue remains an open question. Meanwhile, BTC is being heavily promoted on social media as it hits new all-time highs, while altcoins remain stagnant...  

In recent days, BTC has impulsively updated its all-time highs and is now undergoing a slight correction. The CME gap remains open and it would make sense for it to be filled. Based on exchange inflow metrics, we've seen a very active inflow of BTC to exchanges over the past two days — the last time we saw similar inflows was on February 25. Today, the vote on the Genius Act failed in the White House, but a second vote is expected later this evening. We'll see if they manage to push it through on the second attempt, or if this will serve as a dose of negative sentiment for the market, sending us into a correction.  

This chart shows that the most recent price rally did not feature the abnormal, highly visible profit-taking spikes that previously triggered sharp market dumps. Lately, the market feels the presence of institutional investors, with profits being taken more intelligently and methodically. Since 20 April, profits have been realized in sizeable volumes but in a controlled manner, without massive dumps onto the market. Volatility is decreasing—perhaps thanks to tighter regulation—which seems to discourage investors from staging the huge pumps and dumps seen in the past. Even so, any round of profit-taking is typically followed by a pull-back, so it pays to stay alert.  

This chart clearly illustrates the entry points of whales and retail traders. Based on the information it provides, the most recent wave of whale and retail activity occurred between 11 February and 6 May. During that period, the main pool of positions was accumulated; however, judging by profit-taking metrics, participants began actively locking in gains from mid-May through early June. Historically, since 2020, almost every summer has seen a local bottom, followed by growth in autumn or winter. I don’t expect this summer to break that pattern, and it should offer an opportunity to accumulate positions closer to September. Bitcoin has rebounded well after the drop triggered by the trade-war tensions, and the situation now appears to be improving—the market is giving off an optimistic vibe.  

Open interest in derivatives across exchanges has set a new all-time high alongside BTC’s price, underscoring the strong enthusiasm and solid prospects for the leading digital asset. Still, the situation remains delicate, and investors are proceeding cautiously amid considerable economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Any armed conflict involving the United States—or even negative talk about tariffs—tends to spark a pull-back and dampen market interest. In the near term, we’re highly sensitive to the July 9 EU-tariff decision; everything looks fine so far, but with Trump you have to be ready for anything. On the economic side, watch the U.S. national debt trajectory, upcoming corporate earnings, and potential surprises from the Federal Reserve. Each of these factors could heavily sway markets, including crypto.