Called $BTC bullish on Mar 16, 2023: $BTC rose 22% in 4 months.
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Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 17 directional calls by @cristian_palusci on CryptoQuant since Jul 2021: tracked, not yet ranked (below the accuracy-scoring baseline) (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Called $BTC bullish on Mar 16, 2023: $BTC rose 22% in 4 months.
View call →ETH: Derivatives Still Driving the Bus
Ethereum’s recent breakout has triggered excitement across the market, but a closer look at the underlying flows suggests caution is warranted. Over the past week (July 10–17), ETH’s 24h trading volume has consistently been dominated by derivatives. Daily notional volumes in futures and perpetuals ranged between $39B and $65B, while spot volume (CEX + ETF) remained relatively flat and modest in comparison. Even on days when ETF flows picked up, the structure remains mostly derivative-driven. Moreover, there’s an important nuance: a significant portion of recent ETF inflows are likely tied to basis trades. This arbitrage strategy, which involves going long spot (or ETF) while shorting futures, has become increasingly attractive as ETH’s basis widened again, now offering up to 15% APR on a delta-neutral position. This means that ETF inflows alone shouldn't be interpreted as directional bullish flows. In many cases, they’re simply one leg of a market-neutral arbitrage setup, with the other leg (a short futures position) applying structural pressure to derivative markets. Until we see a meaningful increase in spot participation from real buyers, not just arbitrage desks, ETH’s rally remains fragile, and heavily dependent on the behavior of leveraged players. It’s not that spot flows have been weak. It’s that they haven’t confirmed or supported the magnitude of the current move, which appears mostly engineered by futures positioning and funding dynamics. In short: strong price action, but weak confirmation. ETH is dancing to the beat of derivatives; again.   
View original →Bitcoin's Current Consolidation Phase: A Prelude to the Next Bull Market Stage
Volatility in the crypto market is returning to normal, with demand for Bitcoin declining and the supply of new issues halved since the halving. This is determined by the absence of narratives that can fuel short-term interest, with investor flows oriented towards "fresher" and more attractive narratives, such as the electrification of data centers to support the development of AI (the "Power up America" sector is among the top performers in 2024). The result of this dynamic is an erratic Bitcoin price action at the mercy of derivatives, which follows mostly speculative logic with a short-term perspective. However, I am still constructive on Bitcoin as current market conditions appear very robust. To confirm this thesis, there are notable outflows from exchanges, with Coinbase recording one of the largest outflows of 2024 in recent days. In the immediate term, I think the most likely outcome is a long and drawn-out consolidation phase, until new catalysts come back into play. It's not just me who thinks this way; many confidential reports from large investment banks are circulating which envisage very interesting scenarios for Bitcoin in the medium to long term. Below are some key points from a report by Standard Chartered Bank: 1. Bitcoin will certainly benefit from the US fiscal dominance policy. 2. US debt and public deficits appear to be on an unsustainable path. 3. This should push the price of Bitcoin higher, with investors looking for alternative assets. 4. A second Trump administration could provide a more "crypto-friendly" regulatory framework, benefiting digital assets. 5.(...) This adds to our already bullish medium-term outlook on Bitcoin: we reiterate our target price levels for late 2024 and late 2025 at $150K and $200K respectively." (Standard Chartered Bank). I think there is very little to add.  
View original →The newborn spot ETFs continue to attract record inflows
During the latest trading session, the new Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $340 million, despite outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Invesco Galaxy of around $160 million Yesterday the price rose before the US trading session and then moved mostly sideways. I imagine this is due to traders trying to frontrun the buying pressure during the Wall Street session, with ETFs continuing to suck BTC out of the market at the pace of an industrial vacuum cleaner. After the $50,000 breakout I really have no idea how much more Bitcoin can push without a break (at $53K there is a huge GEX, which could act as first resistance). But it is unlikely that Bitcoin will drop significantly if we continue to go at the pace of 300 - 500 million dollars in net inflows per day, especially considering those BTC are removed from the market for a long time. All this is just around the corner from the halving, which could produce an epochal supply crunch. The only source of concern is the aggregated open interest at levels last seen in spring 2022, during the last crypto market rally before the bear market. From these levels, any moment is a good time to trigger the classic deleveraging dynamics based on sudden flushes.  
View original →Bitcoin consolidates around $25.000 as traders await signs of a soft landing
Both NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole, potential bearish catalysts, passed without too much damage. The implied policy rate has remained fairly stable following Powell's performance, with the market pricing in a latest Fed hike in November, while the rest of the curve is broadly unchanged. From a macro point of view, not much has changed either. The USD shows good relative strength and gold is stabilising, perhaps anticipating a yield reversal that bond markets are not pricing in yet. And many are betting that the Chinese government's stimulus will eventually help the internal and global recovery. The weak US (and European) PMI reading is not in line with third-quarter US GDP estimates, with the Atlanta Fed even forecasting +5.9%. Turning to equity markets, it's hard to stay bearish after two potential catalysts have passed without much shock. The only thing the bears can still bet on is some kind of regional banking crisis 2.0, March 2023 style. Even though the Fed's BTFP has proven extremely effective in containing potential credit events. In this context, investors are looking for signs confirming the soft landing of the economy and this could be fuel for a new rally. We also add that the last year of US presidential cycles tends to be bullish, as no president wants to run for office in a recession/bear market. On the crypto side, the macro situation will certainly have a direct impact on Bitcoin as well, given the recent increasing correlation between stock indices and BTC. If we take a closer look at the market, we see that both estimated leverage ratio and general sentiment have plummeted drastically. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that at the end of the current consolidation phase, if we see a Q4 rally in the equity markets, then Bitcoin will also resume its upward march in an attempt to update the highs of 2023.   
View original →Unlocking the Potential: Will Bitcoin's Positive Skewness Yield a New Asymmetric Return?
The breakout of Bitcoin from its range has diminished the previously observed calmness in the ranging market during the past few weeks. As we are aware, BTC tends to make decisive moves only in a few weeks each year, followed by months of accumulation, re-accumulation, or distribution phases. This characteristic essence of BTC has the potential to deliver incredible asymmetric returns over time. In fact, as shown in the attached chart from a BlackRock's 2022 report, the author suggests increasing exposure to Bitcoin for investors looking to optimize their classic 60/40 portfolio, leveraging BTC's significant positive skewness. Furthermore, when considering the failure of lending and exchange platforms that adopted "Rehypothecation" as a business model (or even selling paper BTC), along with the decreasing circulating supply leading to increased illiquidity, as evidenced by declining BTC balances on exchanges (chart 2) approaching the levels seen in early 2018, the impact of Bitcoin's positive skewness promises to provide a potentially asymmetric return that could outshine the 2020 - 2021 bull market rally. In conclusion, we will soon witness phase two of the global race for the acquisition of the remaining Bitcoin supply, and I bet it will become increasingly challenging to purchase 1 BTC for approximately half the average salary of an American.   
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