George Noble

20 of the best market technicians in the world are handing you 60 ideas over 2 days. Rick Bensignor is one of them. He has the 10-year going to 6.07%, with 5.6% as his minimum target, and he made that call when the 10-year was sitting right on 4%. We're just under 5% today. A 6% 10-year reprices every stock and every mortgage in the country, and he'll walk you through the levels he's watching on the way there. October 27 and 28, 10 AM to 4 PM ET, with replays if you can't make it live. Early bird is $99 until October 9, then it goes to $199. WE'RE ASSEMBLING THE BEST OF THE BEST FOR THIS ONE: https://t.co/Ah4ySJGvg3

There is no easy way out of hiking rates into an oil and diesel price shock. @SamKovX joined me for my latest interview and we walked through exactly what that collision course looks like: Energy stays structurally tight regardless of what the Fed does, consumers are getting squeezed from both ends, and long-duration Treasuries are a trap. We also got into why the AI hardware trade can't justify the trillion dollars being thrown at it. Very timely, watch it here: https://t.co/3EjpRUOqJG

I coined a new term on Steve Eisman's show this week: Narrative dominance. We all know about fiscal dominance driving policy. Narrative dominance is what's driving the stock market. People don't want fundamentals anymore. They want a story that makes them feel good. That's SpaceX at $1.7 trillion. That's the entire AI trade, which is dot-com and 2008 merged into one. Show me the ROI and you get ignored. Tell me a story and you get a trillion dollar valuation. But narrative dominance only works when the cost of capital is zero. And that game is ENDING. Steve and I talked about Bessent's water gun, why Japan is borrowing money from the US to avoid selling US bonds back to us, and why SpaceX's float going from 5% to 25% is the one thing you have to watch right now. Check out the full episode on The Real Eisman Playbook: https://t.co/PjUzemx6jg

The only stock in my book right now that hasn't performed yet is a company that just doubled its earnings per share and set a revenue record. The stock is down because oil went up 69%. The business got fixed. But the commodity got in the way. Only one of those is permanent. Full report on why I'm doubling down: https://t.co/WfTGsPI8vH

3 weeks ago people asked me why we were shorting the stock at $8.26. The stock already looked cheap, sitting well off its highs, and plenty of traders figured the bad news was already priced in. But price was never the reason we shorted it. The stock sits at $6.74. That's down more than 18% since we called it. Wendy's had posted 6 straight quarters of falling same-store sales, and the value proposition that used to define the brand had disappeared behind smaller portions and higher prices. Meritage Hospitality, the franchisee running 314 of those restaurants, just filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Its own store-level earnings fell 48% last year. $8.26 was never cheap for a business whose fundamentals were falling apart underneath it. The crowd speculates on price and panics over every headline. We INVEST in the FUNDAMENTALS, and the fundamentals just went bankrupt.

THIS IS REAL ALPHA GENERATION We made 24 public calls over the past year and 23 of them are winners. The longs are up 108% annualized. The shorts are down 76% annualized. A record like this takes 45 years of sitting through cycles and refusing to pay any price for a story just because the crowd decided it was the future. I ran the #1 mutual fund in this country in 1984 and I've been doing this since 1981. Most of the people telling you what to buy on this platform have never managed a dollar of anyone else's money and have never lived through a single cycle. They laughed at these calls all year. "Never bet against Elon," they told me, along with plenty of other BS. They're not laughing now. NOBODY is putting up numbers like this.

OpenAI just told you the top is in, and they're HIDING it behind an AI safety lie. Sam Altman confirmed they won't go public in 2026. A listing that was being lined up at up to $1 trillion, suddenly pushed out to 2027. Altman called going public right now "ill-advised," and blamed it on AI safety. SPARE ME THE SAFETY EXCUSE OpenAI raised money privately at an $852 billion valuation earlier this year, its most senior people are walking out the door, and Anthropic, its single closest rival, is sprinting to go public before the midterms at north of $2 trillion. A company that truly believed it was building something too dangerous to sell to the public wouldn't be racing to sell shares to the public, and the rival sitting right next to it wouldn't be either. The safety story does not survive 5 seconds of scrutiny. So let me tell you what this really is, because we've built this exact machine once before and it didn't end well: The best breakdown of what's happening here came from @JayMartinBC, a commodities investor who traced the whole thing back to 2006. He talked about this a month ago and everything's turning out to be true. Everybody points to 2008, the year Lehman fell and Washington started rescuing banks, but by the time those headlines landed the outcome was already decided. The year that settled it was 2006, and in 2006 every front page told you housing had never looked healthier. What almost everyone missed was how those mortgages actually worked. The people writing them never expected to get paid back, because the entire plan was to keep rolling them over. A risky borrower paid a low teaser rate for 2 years, then refinanced against a higher home value and restarted the same 2 year clock. The whole arrangement leaned on a single requirement that had nothing to do with how many people wanted houses: It needed acceleration. Prices had to keep climbing faster every single year or the whole thing breaks. And in 2006 home prices never fell. They just slowed from rising 15% a year to rising 8%, and that alone was enough to bring the entire structure down. A homeowner whose house gained 8% could no longer pull enough equity out to replace the old loan, so the refinancing ladder broke and borrowers began defaulting in record numbers with prices still near their all-time peak. The crash in prices was only the echo, and it didn't arrive for another year. The panic took two. What you have to understand here: The loans broke the moment price growth merely slowed, long before prices themselves ever fell. Now look at OpenAI through that exact lens. It's never turned a profit and it loses tens of billions of dollars a year. It covers yesterday's bills by raising fresh money at a higher valuation, which is precisely what that subprime borrower did every time he refinanced against a bigger appraisal. Every round OpenAI raised from 2024 through 2025 came in somewhere between 1.7 and 1.9 times the size of the one before it. For a company bleeding this much cash, that ever-climbing valuation is the fuel, and it works right up until the number stops climbing. The IPO was supposed to be the next rung on that ladder. At $1 trillion it would've been a step of barely 1.2 times the last private round, the smallest jump in the company's entire life, and it was being teed up at the exact moment cheap Chinese models are dragging down what the American labs can charge for the same work. And this weekend OpenAI refused to take even that shrunken step. That's the sound of the acceleration stalling, and it's the same sound 2006 made before everything went downhill. Roughly 40% of the S&P 500 now sits inside just 10 companies. If your retirement is in an index fund, you aren't spread safely across 500 businesses. Nearly half of your money is riding on one belief holding together, the belief that these AI companies will somehow grow into valuations that have never ONCE made sense, before the acceleration gives out underneath them.

THIS AGED LIKE FINE WINE Scott Bessent's big bond rescue lasted about three weeks. Back on August 19 he doubled the government's buybacks of its own long bonds, and the financial press fell all over itself calling it "decisive leadership." Everyone told you to buy bonds here. I told you the exact opposite. I told you this was a call to SHORT bonds, and that the effect would be temporary at best. Look at the thing now: The 10-year yield sat around 4.6% the day he intervened. It's now pushing 5%, the highest since 2023. This is EMBARRASSING. The bigger buybacks he promised only kicked in on September 9. Yields are already back through the level that made him panic. He became the buyer of his own debt, bought himself two weeks, and the market walked right back through him. The crowd that told you to buy is underwater. Everyone who listened to me is not. I don't want to sound arrogant, but the last thing I want is for you to lose money because of Bessent's incompetence. The bond market always wins, and it only needed three weeks to prove it. This is not the top. Rates go higher from here. STAY SHORT HISTORY WILL NOT BE KIND TO @SecScottBessent