BTCBitcoinBullish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

3/26/2022 on

Strong confidence in Bitcoin with an ELR hitting new high

BTC is moving upwards, towards the strong & psychological resistance at ~45K-46K. Data is showing that with this uptrend, the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) reached 0.243, hitting a new high. ELR is permanently rising since last correction in May '21! The ELR is defined as the ratio of open interest divided by the reserve of an exchange and indicates how much leverage is used by users on average. With the high leverage risk the traders take, there is a very positive sentiment of the investors & a strong confidence in BTC. One of the triggers for a rising ELR is the decreasing exchange reserves, which was at about 2,305,000 BTC on 24.03.2022. To make this number tangible, this is the level of July/August '18! This trend shows an increasing storage of BTC for long term. It seems, despite war, BTC has shaken off the Covid impacts. But there are enough levers so that negative effects on BTC can prevail again. Everyone should therefore expose themselves to volatility in both direction.   

BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin

2/22/2022 on

Market Sentiment with NUPL: did the cycles play out & signaling that this is just the beginning of the bear market?

NUPL can be used to describe different periods of the BTC cycles, especially it shows the sentiment to identify periods for selling/buying, means taking profit/entering the market. The informative value is higher by applying the halving cylces, technically speaking cycles 2012, 2016 and 2020. Thresholds <0.0 0.0 0.25 0.5 0.75 following categories are applied on this thresholds (same order) Capitulation Hope - Fear Optimisim - Anxiety Belief - Denial Euphoria - Greed Common: ATHs were reached in the subsequent year of the halving. Means ATH = halving year + 1 2012 & 2016: • sentiment increased to "Euphoria" and with that ATHs reached • Price correction with „Capitulation“ This cycle shows up a different behaviour: • ATH with no „Euphoria" • NUPL descreasing & on the way to Capitulation? • till now there was no capitulation phase • Conclusion: Relying on cycle behaviour and the uncertainty in the market&geopolitical tensions, is this just the beginning of the bear market?  

BTCBitcoinBullish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

2/15/2022 on

BTC: How UTXO in loss correlates with LTHs & preveals expectations

It is clear that LTH (Long-Term Holders) that have held steady for this long would continue to hold till new all-time highs. This QT concentrates on the LTH & UTXOs in loss and showing the correlation to highlight their behaviour and expectation. In the chart following LTH timeframes are visible: 12m-18m, 18m-2y, 2y-3y, 3y-5y, 5y-7y, More than 10y 2018-2020: >UTXO: high losses up to ~60%. >Distribution of the LTH: high amount holding >With the price rise & being in profit, LTH started to sell. Current corrections 2021-now: >UTXO: losses are not that high like before, max ~22% >Furthermore, the losses in 2022 are a bit higher than in 2021. >Distribution of the LTH: '21 has signficantly less LTH to 2018-2020 & bit less to `22 >Especially it has to be highlighted that with this correction the amount of LTH is again increasing compared to 2021! Conclusion: >HODLing is driving the UTXO-loss metric >Increasing amount of LTHs indicates that there is expectation for new ATHs!  

BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin

2/11/2022 on

BTC similarities & analogies on technical indicators to last years correction in May-July '21

The focus of this Quicktake is on comparison of techincal indicators between the last years correction (May-July '21) and the current one. >> "CCI Commodity Channel Index" The comparison with the CCI is showing in the last years correction 4 oversold and 2 oversbought signals. For better representation, the signals are serially numbered according their occurence in the timeline. Comparing the CCI with current correction shows the same amount signals and the same serialization. >> "MFI Money Flow Index" In the last years correction, had one oversold and one overbought signal. Here like at the CCI comparison, the occurences of the signals are serialized. The same signals in the same order occur in the current correction. >> "Ichimoku Cloud" For simplification the lines are faded-out, so only the clouds are visibile. The last correction tested only one time the resistance zone with a final breakthrough. This is the last indicator which is currently not fulfilled (test of resistance).  

BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin

2/8/2022 on

Quo vadis BTC? What halving cycles can reveal

In this QT, the three halving cycles up from 2012 till now are compared regarding their cyclical behaviour. The comparison is based on GANN Fans with the aim to get an indication for current cycle & price movement. Gain insight from the charts & comparison: >>Each cycle has one Peak and a correction phase >>Each cycles' PEAK is reached in a shifted FAN to the previous cycle >>Each cycles' correction phase reached in a shifted FAN to the previous cycle Charts: >>Halving Cycle 2012-2016 ..PEAK reached in Fan 1/2 ..Correction phase until end of cycle went alongside Fan 2/1 as support >>Halving Cycle 2016-2020 ..PEAK reached in Fan 1/1 ..Correction phase found support & resistance until end of phase in Fan 3/1 >>Halving Cycle 2020-'24/25 ..Current PEAK in Fan 2/1 ..Assuming cycle PEAK not reached & should be found alongside 2/1 Correction phase could find support & resistance in Fan 4/1