Alphatica

PROGRESS: Front-Month WTI Crude Oil Futures Fall 0.8% to $93.87 a Barrel. $USO $SPY

Every day someone posts a chart on this app that says "the last time this happened was 2000" or "this has only occurred before every major crash." The trick is always the same. Pick two metrics. Set the thresholds after finding the answer. Show the one match that looks terrifying. Ignore the 40 times it happened and nothing followed. That is survivorship bias. You are only seeing the survivors of a screen designed to find them. Next time you see "the last time this happened," ask one question: how many times did this happen and what was the full distribution of outcomes? If the answer is one observation, you are not looking at research. You are looking at content. We know this post is not accurate. We have PIT baskets going back to 1983. $SPY

Trump meets XI tonight at 6pm just in time for futures opening. We are seeing many liquidation warnings on this app. Careless engagement. $SPY

SPY 2PM | Wednesday September 23 $768.95. Down 0.57%. The afternoon sold. The September seasonal is asserting itself. MORNING vs AFTERNOON: Price: $770.50 to $768.95 (-$1.55) GEX: -$220M to -$748M Engine: -3.2M to -83.8M Call %: 82.0% to 61.4% The GEX deepened $528M. The engine swung to -83.8M. The call premium faded from 82% to 61%. The afternoon deterioration pattern returned. The October surface held clean for two sessions. The third session reverted to the old rhythm. The skew deepened to -1.07%. Calls are still more expensive than puts. The nineteenth inversion strengthening. The institutions are hedging with puts (6.0:1 opening) and buying calls (7.6:1 opening) simultaneously. The money expects higher even as the structure sells. The $774 rejection is now a $5.35 pullback over two sessions. The lower-highs pattern continues. The recovery peaked at $773.97. Below the $774 ceiling. Below the $775 from two events ago. The compression is intact. But the cold PPI signal is still tracking. Day 9 of 20. SPY +1.56% from the September 10 signal against a +1.22% 20-day average. Eleven days remain. The magnets above survived. $772 at +$108M is 0.4% above. $775 at +$66M. The upside structure thinned but it's present. The accelerators below are moderate: $768 at -$84M right at price, $767 at -$97M. Not the -$500M cliffs from September. Two sessions remain in the witching follow-through week. The seasonal says more weakness. The skew says buy it. Thursday and Friday decide. $SPY $QQQ $IWM

SPY OPEN | Wednesday September 23 $770.50. Down 0.37%. Pulled back from the $774 test. The lower-highs pattern held for now. THE OVERNIGHT: GEX: +$1,045M to -$220M Composite: +25.0 to -12.0 Engine: +10.5M to -3.2M Call %: 73.5% to 82.0% Skew: -0.49% to -0.79% The positive gamma surface that held above +$900M for three sessions crossed negative overnight. A $1.27B swing. The composite dropped 37 points to neutral. The October surface had its first real pullback. But two readings stand out. Premium: 82.0% call. $846M net. The money got MORE call-heavy on the pullback. Not less. The institutions watched the $774 rejection and responded by buying more calls. Four dollars and fifty cents into calls for every dollar into puts. Skew: -0.79%. Deepened from yesterday's -0.49%. The nineteenth inversion of the series. Calls are more expensive than puts. The signal that has preceded every recovery is strengthening on the pullback, not fading. THE STRUCTURE: $770 at -$132M right at price. The $774 test created a local accelerator at $770-$771 as the pullback positioning loaded. Price is sitting on it. The magnets above didn't collapse. $775 at +$109M. $780 at +$167M. The upside staircase thinned from yesterday's +$382M at $775 but it's present and pulling. The positive gamma starts at $772 (+$80M), $1.50 above price. THE READ: The $774 ceiling held. The lower-highs pattern says this is the seventh consecutive recovery that failed to reach the prior high. The structure says the rejection was shallow — $3.47 from the test to the morning low — and the premium response was to buy more calls, not sell. The prior lower-highs rejections produced 2-3 sessions of selling before the next event panic started. If this pullback follows the same pattern, $767-$770 is the range for the next two sessions before the structure rebuilds. $770.50 is price. $772 is the boundary. $775 is the magnet. $779 is the record. The skew deepened. The money bought more calls. Watching whether October breaks the pattern. $SPY $QQQ $IWM

COHR is tilting toward distribution. Our algorithm had this classified as contested yesterday. We are tilting towards distribution. SVR is still high. We would not try and buy the dip yet in our opinion. $COHR $SPY https://t.co/bpoXH1QfpW

INTU is still in distribution. SVR has increased every day since September 14. Sellers are hitting the bid hard. $INTU $SPY https://t.co/GGsYF4WCXe

We are starting to see the front running process as we described earlier take hold. $SPY https://t.co/E9bYt6pkqV https://t.co/j3NOsl2FOd

Get ready for a new SPY all time high. Our models suggested October 5th but we are a little early. It's inevitable. It's coming. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/ujTQzsahJk

We are seeing a historic cash transfer from hyperscalers to semiconductors get underway. By 2030, we will see an additional $5.3 trillion in spending according to our estimates. This massive expenditure has largely flowed to the well known AI semiconductor companies, which are experiencing an unprecedented financial windfall. We expect this trend to accelerate in 2027, with semiconductor firms potentially generating $1 trillion in free cash flow while hyperscalers burn through another $99 billion. $NVDA $MU $AMD