Nakju

$BTC 69k, 7k is fake. Many Shorts are saying below 10k, while Moon Boys are saying breaking the all-time high. But look at the Stable Coin Reserve, which is the total amount of money in Crypto. The reserve represented at the current 30k price is almost the same as the previous 30k.a This indicates that the total amount of money is similar to the previous 30k, and the dramatic rise and fall are premature judgments.  

What is a bull market? The bull market starts with an influx of funds. Someone buys more, someone buys more, this is a bull market. Obviously, the total issuance of stablecoins has increased. This represents a long-term upward trend. However, stable reserves, which have continued to fall since November, are difficult to judge as a full bullish market.  

Exchange NetFlow can be used as an indicator of volatility. There's a big inflow at 15k, a big inflow at 24k. Reducing lever geography is also a way to reduce when large volatility is predicted.  

SOPR Ratio is calculated as long term holders' SOPR divided by short term holders' SOPR. The high point after the Luna issue and the high point of the eco bubble are the same. However, the SOPR ratio (LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR) was lowered. This may mean that short-term buying becomes stronger. This may be a bull market entry or a 15k~25k box. If the flow of money in the market continues, prices will rise. In 2018, 2020 and 2021, the short-term holder SOPR recorded a steady rise. Therefore, external funds are needed to meet the conditions for entering the bull market in 2023. However, since the macro is not the case, it can be seen that the current short-term holder SOPR has a bearish divergence pattern. New cash inflows are needed for the rise.     

I was suspicious of Stable Coin's leakage from the exchange. The actual bull market is because the inflow of money begins. However, stable coins are leaking from the bullish market. And $BTC achieved a 25.2k double-top. But there's an interesting point. If most assets have surpassed ATH and $BTC has recorded a double-top, theoretically, the market cap should increase further. But a drop in market cap and a fall in the gap indicate a warning.   

$BTC The rise reduced the exchange's Reserve and supply. It meant that the cash was going out in the Bullish. CPI is scheduled for tomorrow, and the current sentiment is not good. You need to be careful until you see a trend shift.  

As Bitcoin Bullish, USDT Dominance Bearish. When Bitcoin Bearish, USDT Dominance Bullish. This is a pattern that has never been wrong in the history of Bitcoin. In other words, the market is very likely to undergo strong Bearish.   

CDD appears when the coin of the long-term holder moves. However, the appearance of CDD does not necessarily mean that prices will fall. However, if you check the chart with the divergence, you can predict the direction even a little. The rebound from the previous 15k had CDD and Bullish divergence, and at 24k, CDD and Bearish divergence. Of course, there is room for further gains as RSI is still overheated, but this is not the basis for buying on the spot.   

The hash ribbon is an indicator that utilizes 10SMA, 20SMA, 30SMA, and 60SMA moving averages. Buy signal is 30SMA -> 60SMA Golden Cross + 10SMA -> 20SMA Golden Cross condition. The hash ribbon is an indicator of the participation of miners in relation to the revitalization of the market. However, the hash rate is currently going sideways at 15k-17k floors, and Buy signals appeared as soon as the golden cross. In other words, it does not come from increased market participation of miners like the interpretation of the original indicator, but it may not be meaningful at the moment because the moving average line is concentrated.   

Before we talk about $BUSD, let's go back to FTX and Huobi. If you monitor the $BTC Reserve, as faith in CEX disappeared after the FTX incident, investors began to move coins to DEX. But it's not easy to be in the Crypto market without CEX. The remaining investors had chosen Binance, the most reliable exchange. $BUSD reserves have risen significantly since the FTX. But it started to drop significantly from Dec.12. That's when altcoin began to pump. Market liquidity remained unchanged and began to eat up $ BTC's Dominance. The end of the altcoin pump was never good with holding on to it. It was cash that brought a good result. The burning of $BUSD is not a good sign.