Called $BTC bearish on Oct 12, 2025: $BTC fell 36% over the next 4 months.
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Called $BTC bearish on Oct 12, 2025: $BTC fell 36% over the next 4 months.
View call →Short term SOPR flagging the local bottom is in
Tonight an alert on short term SOPR popped up and since it has been quite reliable in the past to indicate local and cycle tops and bottoms, every trader or investor should not ignore it. Although there were no significant spikes to flag tops this year, as with pretty much every metric onchain, signal levels flatten out. That is why we should take this spike under 0.94 with even more confidence as a sign of current leg down dying down. (see screenshot from ProChart by @CryptoMe This has also confirmation in technical analysis as Bitcoin is oversold on 3D and Daily timeframes, as well as simple sentiment fear and greed index has been at Extreme fear levels for quite some time. It highly corresponds with "dead cat bounce"/death cross setup I was outlining couple of weeks ago. Only thing that needs revising is the most likely range for this move up to end before continuation to down trend, considering how low we have gone this week and how previous setups post BTC bull run tops, most likely range sits between 99-105k, with lower probability of some move closer towards 50SMA on 3D to mimic the 2021 setup. Next 15 days should give us the main boost up, although it is very likely Bitcoin's price will then range between 78-105k for the next few months until mid February. A lot of course depends on Stock Market volatility and the likes of SPX has quite a lot of room to fall before calling it even mildly oversold. If Bitcoin's price pushes up above 100k quite fast, be prepared to see Bulls coming out with "Santa's rally" narrative and if we see over 105k, more people calling for new ATH and other bullish posts to get retail folks back into the market on false hopium. This phase is just normal part of Bitcoin "preparing" for the next main phase of Bear phase.   
View original →The Bull is dead, long live the Cat
For those that already came to terms with Bull run being over, but are not into shorting Bitcoin what is next? Dead cat bounce, or we should rather call it "dead bull bounce", is the next natural setup to give traders/investors last chance to exit market at reasonable prices before Bears kick into 2nd gear. Best timeframe to capture this movement is on 3day chart, where the 200 and 50 SMAs give us the most likely entry and exit targets. As you can see in my screenshot, the potential zone for the bounce is between 78-92k and most likely time to hit it is in November. The length of bounce is harder to predict, but it is most likely to top out at 50SMA, so keep that in mind as the longer price will remain below it the lower the target exit. A reasonable range for exit sits between 105-110k. When/if price reaches there, expect media to hype about a new ATH incoming again, don't fall for it, it is a trap ;) This setup will likely coincide with a "death cross" on Daily timeframe, that in most cases is a contrarian signal, but often it is a bit harder to pinpoint the support from which it will have a short recovery period. No animals were harmed in this analysis in case anyone is worried.  
View original →Stay Calm! This Bull is Done.
I wrote about it a month ago, and all signs continue to point to the fact this Bull run was over in October. There is plenty of social media posts about US legislation, FED rate cuts, the usual Institutional adoption etc. "reasons" for BTC to hit a mythical supercycle and go to 150k tomorrow and 500k next month. Those that have been in this space long enough, know this is desperation calling, especially considering the fact we did not have a proper alt season and BTC's dominance remained high and you should stay calm and just analyse what is in front of you. 1. The cycle timelines To date most reliable way to estimate when Bull runs end is to measure number of weeks/days between Bull run tops (consistently around 1425 days) or from Bear market bottom to Bull run top. Even if you don't want to bother counting days, a clear pattern of BTC topping up every cycle a month earlier is hard to be missed, Dec 2017, Nov 2021, Oct 2025 .... next Sept 2029. 2. Technical analysis Since these are long term moves, always zoom out for better view and to filter out noise. 2025 was pretty much a copy/paste from 2021 Bull run, with two distinct peaks and a mid bull correction. Breaking below 50SMA and closing on Weekly as you see happening this week (blue line) will just be a final "nail in the coffin" (confirmation of Bull run ending). Additionally what I've mentioned before, negative divergence is always very strong signal it is time to take profits, especially if paired with cycle timelines mentioned above. 3. Onchain Metrics Everyone familiar with those, likely had alerts set at certain levels on MVRV, Puell Multiple, NUPL and few others, but none of them hit this cycle, apart from Long Term SOPR sending a warning above "6" value in July. As me and others pointed out recently, other metrics are flattening out so you should not take them at face value anymore and hope that ie. NUPL will hit 0.7. Best to combine all that is available to you and not focus on one type of metrics.   
View original →S2F as a perfect indicator for Value BUYs
I wrote about S2F multiple times in past few years as it is extremely reliable when finding the right entry price ranges during Bear market, and for Bull runs at least all but this current one, for exit points. My long term prediction based on that metric for current cycle was a top between 150-200k and to get a more accurate range I was waiting for a spike in S2F ratio during the usual post 1st bull phase top pullback (see BTCUSD chart comparison between 2021 and 2025). This s2F ration spike unfortunately did not happen this time and I would be surprised if it pops up to signify another strong attempt at getting BTC price closer to 150k. A week ago I wrote that we are likely into last 2 weeks of Bull run and with China tariffs "war" coming back into the picture and heavy impact of China restrictions on the semiconductors/chip production market that is heavily correlated with Bitcoin, this week's red candle is IMO marking the end of Bull. If you look again at the attached BTCUSD weekly chart screenshot it clearly shows a very strong bearish divergence that similarly marked end of 2021 2nd Bull phase. It is hard to ignore such strong TA setup, paired with the usual timeline of end of Bull runs since BTC halving (or as some measure since top of previous bull cycle), even though the usual onchain metrics aren't exactly flagging the end. So if this is the end of gains, how low will BTC go by end of 2026? That is where S2F ratio chart is coming in handy again, just like it did when I predicted 2022 lows hitting below 16.7k. The spike from previous cycle should be the "value" range top at 51.7k (an absolute minimum where I think we will see BTC for a prolonged time in Q3/Q4 next year), with a reasonable bottom of range around 32k. I would expect a relatively short period of time when we would see BTC price below 32k, but for those with low patience, use S2F Reversion chart as your guide to when hit the BUY button again.    
View original →2 weeks of Bull run left!!
Some call for a super cycle (just like 4 years ago) some for extended bull into 2026, but unless proven otherwise, so far BTC cycles are pretty consistent in terms of when bull and bear phase tops/bottoms occur. The timeline for end of Bull the final push calculated based on previous cycles was known for a long while (you can see my previous posts or older newsletters, but it's usually around 546 days since halving), falling on around the 20th of October this year. Whether you want to believe it or not, considering we are seeing another push into ATH, those next 2 weeks are likely your best shot at taking profits and then waiting patiently around 12 months for nice low prices to re-enter the market during Bear phase. I am expecting to see Fear and Greed Index to pop over 80 just like in last days of Bull in Nov 2021. Take it as a very strong Sell signal, especially when paired with Supply % in profit running almost at 100%. That said I did not see clear Onchain signals as I would normally expect to see similar to previous cycles, although every cycle the metrics like MVRV were always trending down, just as gains for BTC also trending down from cycle to cycle. My expected top was between 150-200k, is looking less and less likely considering my estimated short time left, but that should not stop any reasonable trader/investor from taking profits at current levels regularly over the next few weeks. Another thing that never happened was the alt-season, but maybe that is for the better and we are finally going to stop seeing overhyped projects that deliver no value with extreme market caps with Bitcoin holding on to it's dominance for a prolonged time. If you are holding altcoins, don't count on 2017/18 scenario happening, where BTC topped almost a month before a surge in alts happened, it might not this time and holding a bag of useless tokens will feel much worse than cutting losses or taking smaller profits now.   
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