XO

$ETH Scenario Im looking for is Acceptance above 2720 then looking to trade a rotation towards Mondays Highs into 29s - Yearly open... h4 stoch all but reset. Failure to find acceptance keep this 23-27 range in play. https://t.co/NYUsCYoF5O https://t.co/gNgPxfMerp

$ETH Yeah decent - Mondays high or there abouts was the inflection I talked of in the tweet below - pushed down during today’s NY session with some long liquidations kicking in. Eth still rangebound imo between 21s - 29s overall… Btc key zone around 83.5s give or take 10Y Yields pushed up above 5% Some alts still doing relatively ok - primarily lagging alts - leading alts stalling somewhat…

$ETH I think we're approaching an area of interest around the local range highs, see the blue levels. Interested to see how price trades around Monday's high. If the right trigger develops, I'd be open to expressing a tactical short for a mean-reversion rotation over the coming weeks - if the trigger is there... Not necessarily a bearish view... simply trading location, structure and the opportunity in front of me. Spot remains largely unchanged - wanting to continue adding on meaningful pullbacks. That's ultimately why I'm comfortable shifting tactically through perps... I can trade both sides of the shorter-term auction without having to over-trade the broader macro spot positioning.

I feel as though my timeline is divided on whether the bottom is in... I'm not sure it really matters. I think it's important not to become overly fixated on how much lower price could go without asking the inverse question... what if I'm not positioned, and what's the opportunity cost if the upside is significant? For me, it's less about prediction and more about trade expression. Define the risk... put on an appropriate position when the market gives you enough reason to do so... and let MGI dictate what happens next. Add, reduce, exit or invalidate as the information changes. You can have an opinion, be wrong about the eventual path and still make money... Equally, you can make the correct macro call and extract very little from it. I remember selling the top of the Bitcoin market in around the 6th of Oct - before 10/10, yet I never once claimed "the top is in." You simply don't know that in real time. What mattered was how I was positioned and how I responded to the information the market subsequently generated. Having a view is useful... being able to express that view with clearly defined risk whilst retaining the flexibility to be wrong is what actually matters. I guess I've done alright this cycle... sold the top and then flipped my view around the lows in July and been increasing spot exposure. Hindsight looks great when it comes to fruition... but in all honesty, you never really know. You just have to embrace uncertainty tbh as markets can turn at any point... and I've been through enough cycles to see just how quickly shit can really hit the fan and screw ppl over. Ultimately it's the downside that catches most out due to complacency or greed. Survive that... and you give yourself the opportunity to participate in everything that comes after.

$ETH Eth has been rangebound for the last several years... I'd like to believe this goes past the previous ath's in terms of a cyclical play... The play for me is simple - I'll keep adding if theres anything meaningful correction... and hedge spot exposure at key macro levels... Bankless sends its regards...

Pleasing to see some of this playing out... There’s probably enough evidence now to identify which alts are attracting genuine demand, particularly those already 2–3x off their macro cycle lows with a fundamental driver behind the move. The next leg higher ultimately depends on Bitcoin imo, but any meaningful correction should offer opportunities to build positional exposure in select names over the next several months. The upside could be significant with some patience heading into 2027 imo... Otherwise, simply play the momentum with a set of bands.

$BTC A weekly close around here should all but confirm the 12/25 EMA crossover... Historically, that shift has preceded some strong momentum phases higher. Interim, $82–83k is the key zone. For continuation longs, I want to see price trade through supply and find acceptance above it alongside the 365D rolling VWAP. Do that and there’s scope for the move to accelerate, particularly if shorts are forced to unwind and would look for price to trade the range qtr / value area high around 90k If rejected, $78.5–79k the 3-week composite VAH... is the first level I want to see hold. Lose that and I’d look for rotation back through value towards the opposite extreme as an intraweek trade. On a deeper HTF correction, $68–72k is the major reaction zone, 12/25 bands + macro mid. Hold there and the broader bullish structure remains intact. Even an extended range, imo, is more about accumulating value than invalidating the HTF thesis. My broader bias shifted in July: see earlier tweet. Spot: buying key levels / confirmed breakouts. Perps: trading level to level on both sides - which is mainly what I comment on... separate from the HTF view. Good luck

$BTC Break from balance... 3 week comp... good example of playing value areas and edge zones. Beautiful PA shift from yesterday’s 3-week composite value area high, rotating cleanly back through value to the comp value area low and some, which was what I set out to play for, with price trading previous week’s lows in the process. 77k–77.3k now stands out as significant resistance, with previous week’s value area low repeatedly capping price into the latter stages of the NY session during the hearing. Reduced short exposure position here... over to FOMC... Not sure what sets up... the plan is to stay flat on perps heading into it... as per yesterdays tweet. Let the liquidity games continue... Cheers

$BTC Very good rotation today from the 3-week composite VAL back towards VAH. 79.5–80k is the key area for me here, confluent with the 3 week comp vah into previous week's high, and an area where I'd expect passive supply to become increasingly relevant. Wouldn't be surprised to see it prove difficult to clear on the first attempt. The final leg higher also looks to have been driven, at least partly, by shorts unwinding, price higher alongside falling OI rather than obvious fresh leveraged long participation. Contextually, a few things stand out: 1. Previous week's high 2. The boundaries of the 3-week composite 3. Developing monthly VWAP / monthly open, give or take 4. Another test of the 50W MA Nothing definitive directionally for me here... Until the market proves otherwise, I'll continue treating it as rotational and playing the edges rather than forcing a directional view. See what gives into FOMC... probably remain flat on perps heading into that unless something compelling sets up.

$BTC Without getting too caught up in the details of the move, what stood out for me once again was price rejecting from the 50W MA - which ive sold... once again... Its a bull market if price can convincingly reclaim and find acceptance above it... ideally supported by strong passive flows, rather than simply shorts unwinding before price rolls over again - as per today.. Still a range until it isn’t... Current m-vwap line in the sand for me... Until then...