Checkmate

Bulls are always too married to their moon math thesis at the top to notice when it's over. I'm noticing many bears who remain married to their thesis of what the idealised Bitcoin bear market low has to look like. They missed the inflection point by several months as a result.

@Captain_Bhab @GrainofSaltSF I don't understand your problem tbh mate. Can you name seven TCos you'd actively invest capital in right now? MSTR, Metaplanet, Strive? Is anything else even remotely investable? Show me your list

That's fine, but I truly think you have stripped all the nuance out of my actual views and then claimed I need to be held accountable for that? Just a really strange opinion. Again, you've not provided a single piece of market evidence that my thesis is incorrect. We've seen massive capitulation by many TCos, MSTR remains in a league of it's own, and there are a very small handful of other smaller competitors. Please show me what I got wrong?

Sure, and which one of those comments are in any way incongruent with my points above? Simple ideas I think you have misread: - market is unlikely to sustain hundreds or even tens of these things - MSTR is in a league of its own (and the only one I personally have held, that's a personal choice) - Pareto distribution You've misread my view, discarded the nuance, and then provided receipts that support what I have said above. I also have numerous detailed reports on this topic. Next?

I've said many times that it would be a Pareto distribution, and the market is unlikely to sustain hundreds of them. I have said MSTR is in a league of their own. In almost no circumstances would I ever be so specific as to say there can only be company A and B. I think you have read into my commentary far too strictly, and not fully comprehended the nuance in my arguments. When you have evidence we do not have a winner takes most pareto distribution, then I think it's fair to challenge the the way you are.

@Captain_Bhab @GrainofSaltSF Curious, which part of my TCo thesis did not play out as I expected? Pretty sure I more or less nailed the general calls (Heavy Pareto distribution, bear will be ruthless to their stock prices, MSTR in a league of its own but it also overleveraged itself mid year)..

There are people out there right now, who are selling BTC to buy Blake2b ASIC rigs...so they can mine an absolute failed shitcoin fork of Bitcoin... ...right as BTC rallies off its bear market low. Chefs kiss.

Short Squeeze! My latest analysis piece hitting the inbox for @_checkonchain subscribers, covering the rally as Bitcoin finally wakes up. We've also opened a 7-day free trial for folks keen to see what we're up to at Checkonchain behind the paywall. https://t.co/QbEiYEywm3

Buy the whole bottom, not THE bottom. Waiting for the final wick to full port is a fools errand. It leaves no room for uncertainty and probabilities. Bitcoin has been in a deep value zone since the Feb capitulation at $60k. Humble yourself, and accept nobody knows the future.

Sorry mate, I believe you're incorrect here. Not only is the share count heavily diluted, but the proportion of the BTC 'assigned' to MSTR has decreased significantly since the prefs are now senior to the common. As BTC price falls, the fixed fiat face value of the prefs (and debt) captures more of the balance sheet, and MSTR residual equity is literally worth less. This is also now how the firm now calculates mNAV, so the mechanism here isn't hand waving. Have done quite a bit of work to satisfy myself this is the case. Most of it indicated that June+ was going to be a rough period for MSTR, and it was. Market suggested I was right in my thinking.