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The Long Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio is a crucial metric used in analyzing market trends and investor behavior, particularly among long-term investors. A cohort of BTC investors is the “long-term holder” (LTH) group, who hold their coins for at least 155 days before selling. A SOPR trending higher shows profit is being realized, while a downward trending SOPR indicates losses. As we can see in the chart, the Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR (EMA 144) had more spikes since the beginning of March, which means that investors took some profits on the way as the price reached new highs.  

After the FTX event, Ethereum's netflow and its reserves on spot exchanges highlighted a strong behavioral pattern among Ether investors that have suggested since then a strong belief in Ethereum's future recovery. The chart makes it clear that Ethereum all-exchange's spot reserve has been constantly in a downtrend due to big outflows, while the total value staked of Ethereum has increased. The total value staked balance of Ethereum is currently over 31 million, reflecting fundamental belief and a positive sentiment. The decline of exchange reserves and a continuous staking commitment indicate an understanding of Ethereum’s intrinsic value and a strong belief in the asset’s staking fundamentals. A decrease in the exchange reserves means there isn’t much selling pressure in the Ethereum market. If this steep downtrend continues, the price could go up even further.  

At the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been among the beneficiaries of a price increasing environment driven mostly by the Bitcoin spot ETF major event. The chart visualization highlights the historical cycle of new participants. When we explore UTXO data, the younger age bands tend to spike up when prices rise fast before topping out. One of the most important things that defines a sustainable bull market is the arrival of new investors, which for now we might conclude that we are still in the growing early stages. The wave of institutional interest may have the chance to show its power this year as new investors might follow for fear of missing out on the latest investing trends in crypto market. UTXO Age Bands is a set of all active supply that were last moved within a specified age band. The on-chain indicator helps investors understand the market participants' dynamics by offering vital insights to identify and forecast the market cycle stage.  

UTXOs in profit entered a historical area of great interest for participants in the crypto market. Currently, 97.3% of Unspent Transaction Output are in profit, which means that we should pay more attention as we can see a possible selling pressure in the next period, if BTC investors want to take profit. We can observe that historically, the UTXO in profit indicator can stay in this area for a longer period and we can assume that the distribution process takes place with the entry of several participants in the market. If investors' belief in the rise of the Bitcoin price remains firm, a possible wider correction of the Bitcoin price can be postponed until investors consider that the profit they can get is good enough to be motivated to sell. Monitoring on-chain indicators and being ready to act to the changing market conditions, are important for a successful investments.  

The Bitcoin Halving is the most important event for Bitcoin and It occurs every four years. The next halving, which will take place roughly mid of April, is expected to be extremely interesting as the industry has evolved dramatically in the past four years, especially because Bitcoin and cryptocurrencys have become a part of mainstream news and got a rising institutional interest. Bitcoin’s saw more adoption and more money poured in than ever before. Looking to the current pre-halving market cap which is roughly $848B and the past ones during the halving events, we can understand better the incredible Bitcoin’s journey. Volatility around the halving event can influence price dynamics and it presents both uncertainties and favourable circumstances. The Bitcoin’s supply structure acts as a key narrative to higher scarcity and lower inflation. While there is no one that can predict the future, supply constraints will positively impact the price of Bitcoin on the long run.  

Since the end of 2022, the circulating supply of USDT has increased by around 30 billion. Each increase in supply has traditionally had a positive effect on the development of the Bitcoin price. Bitcoin has rallied in the context of these USDT supply spikes and we have seen a turnaround and a sign of improving liquidity in the Bitcoin market due to the new capital inflows that could be caused by the anticipation of a Bitcoin spot ETF and increased investors interest. Data analysis reveals a high correlation between USDT supply and Bitcoin price movement, leading to an increase in volume and a dynamic environment for the Bitcoin price.  

Long Term Output Profit Ratio is a powerful metric that is showing the long term holders movements and behaviours. The long-term holder SOPR ( LTH-SOPR) indicator focuses on coins moved on-chain that have a lifespan of at least 155 days. We can observe that in the past year when LTH-SOPR exceeds values well above 1 and RSI was over 60, long term holders were selling at profit their coins and those periods have been shown to be local tops. We can monitor the on-chain indicator as Bitcoin price could be pressured to the downside if the mentioned values are reached and crossed, indicating a possible selling pressure coming from long term holders.  

Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit (%) represents the percent of UTXOs which are currently in profit. This metric can be helpful to show us the market tops by suggesting that investors are close to take profits and that we can see a price reversal. The last time the market had the metric in a high state indicating over 95% of UTXOs being in profit, it was during the 2021 top bull market. This mean that we should pay close attention to this area if it will be touched and crossed in the next period, in order to prepare for a possible hard correction as sellers might be dominant creating a cascade of sells, based on historical data.  

UTxO Realized Price and UTxO Age Bands (% ) are indicators that can help us observe the behaviours of long-term and short-term holders along with the price actions according to their holdings. If the upward trend on Bitcoin will continue, we can see that the next important resistance is the realized price of UTxO 2y-3y which is now in the area of 46500 usd. This resistance is important as it is the last from the point of view of the UTxO realized price, and a crossing over it would lead us to a potential price discovery of this bull run. We can take in consideration that the share of UTxO 2y-3y addresses is 15.3%, which means that they have a high potential to influence the market.  

The geographical supply distribution of Bitcoin it is an on-chain metric of great interest that it is showing us an update in entities ownership regarding Bitcoin. US entities had an important role in the past cycles to the Bitcoin market rise. However, looking to US entities supply distribution, the trend is declining constantly since mid-2022. The US regulatory approaches to Bitcoin have closely monitored over time different ways to regulate the market, but without success. As US still have an uncertain environment regarding crypto regulations, investors may have decided to switch to other Bitcoin friendly environment, causing a significant shift in its geographical distribution. On the other hand, rising interest rates and other economic factors could possible slowed down investments in assets such as Bitcoin in the US. Moving further, we anticipate that the Bitcoin distribution worldwide will continue and it remains to be seen the impact over the Bitcoin global market.