The Analyst

The Kraft Heinz Company $KHC Deep-Dive Analysis Slowly it is getting interesting with a dividend yield of ~6.6%-6.9% 1. Company Introduction The Kraft Heinz Company is a global food and beverage titan, generating roughly $25B in annual sales across 40+ countries with iconic brands like Heinz, Kraft, Philadelphia, and Lunchables. The shareholder base is heavily institutional: Institutions hold a dominant ~78% (with Berkshire Hathaway holding ~27.5%), Retail and Public investors hold ~21.5%, and Insiders/Founders hold a mere ~0.4%. The short quote currently stands at an elevated ~8.34% of the float, reflecting some ongoing market skepticism. The company is actively shifting from its past reliance on legacy processed foods toward a future of volume-led, sustainable growth. Technologically, KHC is leveraging automated data sell-out exchanges in emerging markets and has boosted R&D spending by 22% (targeting ~0.9% of net sales) to drive consumer-led innovation and targeted marketing returns. 2. Product Presentation and Current Developments Management is executing a major turnaround by boosting incremental commercial investments to ~$700M in 2026, focusing heavily on marketing (targeted at over 6% of net sales) and product renovation. Recent developments include the launch of Kraft Mac & Cheese PowerMac (17g protein), functional beverages like Capri Sun Hydrate, and Heinz Zero in Brazil. The company is intensely focused on "Taste Elevation" and expanding its Global Away From Home footprint by securing partnerships with Hilton and major stadiums to offset ongoing volume pressures in its U.S. meats and meals divisions. 3. Valuation Snapshot The current Market Cap is approximately $29.5B. Total long-term and current debt sits at $19.0B, and with cash and short-term investments of roughly $2.7B, Net Debt (strictly excluding leasing) is approximately $16.3B. This yields an Enterprise Value (EV) of ~$45.8B. With TTM EBITDA at roughly $5.35B, the stock trades at an incredibly cheap EV/EBITDA multiple of just 8.5x. 4. Earnings Snapshot Q2 2026 results were a mixed bag. Organic Net Sales fell 1.3%, largely driven by a 3.8 percentage point volume/mix decline in North America. While global pricing remained slightly positive (+1.3%), Adjusted EPS dropped 18.8% to $0.56 due to increased marketing investments and variable compensation. GAAP operating income registered a massive $6.4B loss, driven entirely by non-cash impairment charges of roughly $7.4B on legacy intangible assets and goodwill. The absolute bright spot: Free Cash Flow generation remains stellar, hitting $1.7B YTD (+10%) with a massive 123% conversion rate. 5. Peer Group Comparison KHC is trading at a significant discount compared to its packaged food peers. While KHC sits at an 8.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, peers like Mondelez (~9.3x) and McCormick (~13.4x) trade at notable premiums. Furthermore, KHC offers a massive ~6.6%-6.9% dividend yield, acting as a lucrative "paid-to-wait" mechanism while the turnaround materializes, outyielding almost all its direct competitors in the consumer defensive sector. 6. Forecast 2030 Looking out to 2030, if KHC's massive ~$700M investment injection stabilizes top-line volume growth and the company achieves its $2.5B gross efficiency target ahead of schedule, EBITDA could organically expand into the $6.2B-$6.5B range. Assuming a slight multiple expansion to a still-conservative 9.5x EV/EBITDA, the Enterprise Value would reach ~$60B. After aggressive debt paydown funded by their 110%+ free cash flow conversion rate, the equity value could see over 40% upside, excluding the heavy dividend compounding. 7. Acquisition Potential With its depressed valuation, resilient free cash flow profile, and Berkshire Hathaway's heavy anchor stake, KHC presents an interesting theoretical acquisition target for cash-rich global mega-cap staples or a massive private equity consortium. However, any buyout would require navigating Warren Buffett's blessing and digesting a massive $45B+ EV price tag, making bolt-on internal acquisitions by KHC more likely than a total buyout. 8. Catalyst / Milestones in the next 6-12 Months Key catalysts to watch include the sequential closing of the U.S. retail market share gap, the easing of SNAP-related headwinds (which represent a ~100bps drag on 2026 sales), and the ROI realization of the new "It has to be Heinz" and Philadelphia brand equity campaigns. Further insider buying—following CEO Cahillane's recent multi-million-dollar open-market purchase—would strongly signal continued management confidence in the turnaround. 9. Opportunities / Risks Opportunities: Emerging markets are a massive growth engine, with Organic Net Sales up 8.5% in Q2 led by aggressive Heinz distribution expansion (+4% distribution points). Gross efficiencies generated ~$330M YTD, keeping the company fully on track to beat its 5-year goal. Risks: Persistent inflation in manufacturing and logistics (expected >4% for the full year 2026), continued market share bleed in legacy North American brands to private labels, and the sheer execution risk of an expensive turnaround in a soft consumer spending environment. 10. Conclusion The Kraft Heinz Company is deep in the trenches of a massive structural and brand-led turnaround. While legacy brand impairments and heavy marketing investments drag on short-term earnings, the underlying cash machine is roaring. For patient capital, the massive dividend yield and deeply discounted 8.5x EV/EBITDA multiple offer a compelling margin of safety while the global growth thesis plays out. Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. May hold positions. Personal opinion. Always do your own DD.

Before the earnings release and earnings call i was kind of skeptical about $ORCL , but know i am bullish bcs: -great performance from cloud -massiv demand for there AI Infrastructure -AI data platform -SAAS Business with massiv deployment of AI and AI Agents and AI workflows I’m posting a few interesting sentences copied from the Oracle $ORCL earnings call: -Total revenue was a record $19.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year in U.S. dollars. For the first time, Q1 total revenue grew sequentially, an important sign of our continued progress in building scaled infrastructure. Historically, a record Q4 was followed by a lighter Q1. -Our gross margin did decline as expected, driven by impacts from ramping up our data centers and the acceleration of infrastructure revenue. However, this was offset in the quarter by lower operating costs and strong operating leverage tied to simplification and efficiency actions. -First, we continued to grow our RPO during the quarter to support future revenues. The vast majority of those new contracts were via prepay or bring your own hardware or similar mechanic, so will not require incremental capital from Oracle. Also, that new RPO will not impact our CapEx or revenues until fiscal 2028 or beyond. Second, we started to see a strong conversion of our RPO into revenues this quarter, driving our cloud infrastructure results. -We now expect around half of our RPO to convert into sales over the next 36 months. -In Q1, we had a strong quarter in many of our SaaS offerings, driven by the demand environment that I just described. In total, our SaaS business grew 10%, with Fusion growing at 14%. Our Oracle Health business continued to accelerate, and although we don't specifically call it out, our industry applications grew at greater than 20% in Q1. -Customers used our embedded AI capabilities more than 150 million times during the quarter, with usage growing 42% sequentially. Our AI agents executed more than 3.5 million times in production during the quarter, nearly doubling quarter-over-quarter. Customers have over 2,300 AI agents in production, and that is up 90% quarter-over-quarter. Overall, AI production usage across Fusion alone consumed 900 billion tokens during the quarter. -Additionally, the NetSuite AI Connector Service, which lets customers securely connect their NetSuite data to leading AI assistants of their choice, including ChatGPT and Claude, is already one of the fastest adopted capabilities in the whole entire history of NetSuite, with more than 10,000 customers already using it. Personal care company Every Man Jack estimates that the service alone will save $350,000 annually and nearly 5,000 hours of work. -We closed more than $30 billion of additional AI contracts in Q1 without requiring additional capital from Oracle. Our ability to operate a large multi-tenant fleet remains a significant advantage. GPU utilization remains extremely high at 97.9% in Q1. GPU longevity and value continue to impress. Of all the GPUs that came up for renewal in Q1, that capacity was renewed or resold at a 20% premium to prior contracts. The majority of those GPUs are four years or older. -Taken together, Q1 shows how the pieces reinforce one another. We are delivering data center and GPU capacity at a pace that would've seemed impossible only a year ago. Customers are signing new contracts, renewing capacity at higher prices, and keeping the fleet almost fully utilized. We are placing Oracle AI database in every major cloud and making more proprietary and open models available on OCI. We are then connecting those models to enterprise data, applications, and developer workflows. That combination is why demand continues to grow and why we remain confident in the long-term value of the technology we are building. -What I would say, though, is that each of these projects that we are doing, by nature, is a strong free cash flow generating project. As soon as they ramp up, very shortly thereafter, they are delivering a free cash flow conversion ratio of something like 100% to post-tax EBITDA. In fact, the business by nature is somewhat, quote, "self-funding" at some point, -I've been doing it now for 12 years at Oracle. One invariant that has been true so far is that the demand for server-side computing in data centers has only gone up, and it turns out so far that everything we see about the AI use case is the same way, but only more so. The fact that when we go out and we have capacity up for renewal, that we actually can achieve higher prices to the order of 20%. All of those are very positive signs for both the continued demand, the growth, and then the profitability of this business. -When you put all that together, Brent, I just do not think that anybody else in the market is delivering all of that as a cloud service, certainly not in highly regulated industries, certainly not at the scale that we are. One other thing I will mention about our SaaS business is that our SaaS business is also a wonderful lead generation business for our IaaS business. Our SaaS customers are also buying OCI. They also have other workloads, non-Oracle workloads, that they are more than happy to leverage OCI. They get a very good test of the performance and scalability of OCI as a SaaS customer because they are inherently an OCI consumer at that point as well. -Certainly, we can run this in a model where we are consuming 100% of non-Oracle work. This is by no means specific to the Oracle Database or the Oracle applications. The AI data platform is agnostic and able to pull in and automate the ontologies from any data source. In fact, we have hundreds of data sources that we are doing this automation for today. So, whether it is just pure consumption of AI data platform, whether it is used in concert with our applications, or whether it is used in concert with OCI, we are more focused on allowing the customer to make the best choice, or the partner to make the best choice that suits them. So I think it really helps all of our business. https://t.co/H7BDM9SBBV

$6060.HK ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance - Deep Dive Very cheap Chinese insurance company...trading at 50% to its NAV and P/E Ratio = ~5 1️⃣ Company Introduction Company: ZhongAn is China's first online-only InsurTech, seamlessly embedding insurance into digital lifestyles. It has evolved from a digital-native infrastructure to a fully AI-native ecosystem. Shareholders: The structure is roughly distributed across Retail investors (~49%) and Institutional investors (~6%). Founders and insiders (incl. Ping An, Tencent, Alibaba) hold ~45%. Past to Future: The company has aggressively transitioned from selling high-volume, low-margin e-commerce return policies to offering high-value digital finance, health, and NEV auto insurance. Technology: ZhongAn is perfectly positioned to capitalize on structural shifts in AI and digital banking. Their "One AI Strategy" is deployed across all scenarios, boasting 1,000+ digital employees and processing 34 trillion tokens in 1H26 alone. 2️⃣ Product Presentation & Current Developments The Health ecosystem features multi-tiered products like the Personal Clinic Policy and Zhong Min Bao. Digital Lifestyle is booming (+24.7% YoY) with innovative pet/exotic-pet insurance and e-commerce return protections. Auto focuses heavily on NEVs (83.5% of auto GWP) with AI video claims. Meanwhile, consumer finance is strategically downsized (-79.2% YoY) for risk control. ZA Bank (HK's No.1 digital bank) now offers Crypto and US stock trading. 3️⃣ Valuation Snapshot Share Price: ~$10.70 HKD Market Cap: ~$15.7B HKD Net Cash position of ~$4.3B HKD (~RMB 4B) Enterprise Value (EV): ~$11.4B HKD NAV (Net Asset Value): Net assets stand at RMB 26.94B. With ~1.47B shares outstanding, NAV per share is approx. RMB 18.33 (or ~$20.00 HKD). The stock trades at a massive discount to book value! 4️⃣ Earnings Snapshot (1H26) Net Profit: RMB 1,550M (up 132.2% YoY) Underwriting Profit: RMB 773M (up 17.8% YoY) Combined Ratio (CoR): A stellar 95.5% (HKFRS 17) ZA Bank Profit: HKD 71M (up 43.7% YoY) Why Investment Income Skyrocketed: Investment income surged 150.0% YoY to RMB 1,596M in 1H26 (7.8% annualized yield). This was driven by a massive jump in net fair value changes through profit or loss (RMB 799M) combined with solid net investment income (RMB 797M). The defensive RMB 40.3B portfolio is perfectly positioned to capture market gains while managing risk (70% in fixed income/cash, 98.6% of domestic bonds rated AA & above). 5️⃣ Peer Group Comparison ZhongAn trades at a steep discount to its book value compared to high-cash-burn peers like Lemonade or slower traditional insurers like PICC. It stands uniquely at the intersection of Big Tech and established underwriting. The market is still pricing it like a struggling legacy insurer, ignoring the structural profitability (95.5% CoR) and real AI scale. 6️⃣ Forecast 2030 (Net Profit & Valuation) Management continues to leverage its tech capabilities and ZA Bank's expansion. Net Profit Forecast: Scaling towards RMB 4.5B-5B annually as ZA Bank and tech exports fully mature. Valuation: Given the strong profitability trajectory and massive discount to NAV, a reversion to just 1x Price-to-Book (P/B) offers ~100% upside from current levels as the AI-native model fully manifests. 7️⃣ Acquisition Potential At current valuations and a steep discount to its net tangible assets, ZhongAn is highly attractive. It represents a prime target for tech giants (Ant Group, Tencent) seeking to fully consolidate a regulated, AI-driven insurance vehicle, or foreign insurers looking for a turnkey digital platform in Asia. 8️⃣ Catalysts & Milestones (Next 6-12 Months) -Continued margin expansion in ZA Bank from Crypto/Wealth Management rollouts. -Deeper NEV auto penetration by partnering with top EV makers. -Commercialization of the proprietary insurance vertical AI model. 9️⃣ Opportunities & Risks Opportunities: High-growth areas like Group insurance (+57.5% YoY) and the low-altitude economy (covering 600K+ drones). Risks: Macro-economic slowdown impacting e-commerce GMV, and potential regulatory tightening in the digital banking/crypto space. 🔟 Conclusion ZhongAn is no longer just selling cheap return-shipping policies; it is a profitable, AI-driven financial powerhouse with a massive data flywheel. Armed with a solid cash position, improving CoR, and a visionary pivot into comprehensive digital finance, ZhongAn offers a rare mix of deep value and explosive AI upside. Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. May hold positions. Personal opinion. Always do your own DD.

Volex Plc $VLX.L just released their trading update for the 4 months ended July 31, 2026, and the momentum is explosive. Stock is up 20% You get a Datacenter Play with an: FY27e EV/EBITDA multiple of just ~8.3x. Here are my key takeaways from this morning's release: For those unfamiliar, Volex is a specialist integrated manufacturer of critical power and data transmission products. They are the unsung backbone of the AI revolution and electrification, providing the essential high-speed copper cables, power cords, and complex industrial tech that keep hyperscale datacenters and the global EV markets running. • Massive Organic Growth: A staggering 28% constant currency organic revenue growth YoY! This growth was broad-based across all 5 of their end-markets. • AI Datacenter Demand: The Complex Industrial Technology segment is leading the charge. Customer demand for Datacenter infrastructure has been completely sustained at the elevated exit rates of FY2026. • Electrification Boom: Strong momentum in EV & Electrification products driven by a global push for energy efficiency, alongside solid growth in their Consumer Electricals, Off-Highway, and Medical segments. • Sequential Strength: The underlying trend is even better than the headline—average monthly revenue in the first 4 months is running 8% higher than the monthly average for H2 FY26. • Margin Expansion: Operating expenses are tightly managed. Efficiency savings and robust operating leverage are directly translating into improved underlying operating margins, aligning perfectly with their medium-term strategic targets. • Strategic Moves: The integration of the newly acquired Kepler SignalTek (KST) is right on track, expanding their high-margin medical footprint. • Main Market Listing: As of July 24, 2026, Volex successfully moved from AIM to the Main Market of the LSE. This is a massive milestone that better reflects the company's maturity and will attract larger capital pools and institutional investors. • Upgraded Outlook: As a result of this opening momentum, the Board officially expects FY2027 underlying operating profit to be ahead of current market expectations! Given the impressive beat and the structural tailwinds in AI datacenters, here is my FY2027 forecast: • Current Market Cap: ~$1.36B USD • Net Debt (excluding lease liabilities): $121.5M • Enterprise Value (EV): ~$1.48B USD FY27e Forecast: • FY27e Revenue: ~$1,375M (Comfortably beating the $1,338M consensus) • FY27e Underlying Operating Profit: ~$146M • FY27e EBITDA: ~$178M • Valuation: Trading at a highly attractive FY27e EV/EBITDA multiple of just ~8.3x. Considering their 28% organic growth rate and critical position in supplying the global AI Datacenter build-out, an 8.3x EV/EBITDA multiple suggests a compelling undervaluation compared to sector peers. The recent Main Market listing is exactly the catalyst needed for a significant valuation re-rating. Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. May hold positions. Personal opinion. Always do your own DD.

$KAP.L $KZAP — Kazatomprom 1H2026 Earnings Deep Dive 🇰🇿☢️ Company snapshot: Kazatomprom is the world's largest uranium producer, controlling ~20% of global primary supply. It mines 27 deposits across 14 assets in Kazakhstan using low-cost ISR technology, and sells through long-term contracts, spot, and its Swiss trading arm THK. Listed on LSE & AIX. 1H2026 Highlights: Consolidated revenue +9% YoY to KZT 717.8bn, driven by a much higher realized uranium price (Group avg $67.88/lb, +16% YoY) as spot climbed to an average $85.98/lb (+24% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA held roughly flat at KZT 371.3bn (+2%), but Attributable EBITDA fell 12% to KZT 264.8bn as non-controlling JV partners captured a bigger EBITDA share. Net profit dropped 9% to KZT 240.4bn on FX losses and higher finance costs; EPS -22% to KZT 604. Costs are the real story: C1 cash cost jumped 37% YoY to $24.48/lb and AISC +25% to $38.45/lb, hit by the MET tax rate rising from 9% to 12.4%, sulphuric acid inflation, and KZT appreciation. Balance sheet stays fortress-like: net debt only KZT 157bn vs Adjusted EBITDA of KZT 1,039.8bn (LTM), a 0.15x net debt/EBITDA ratio, total cash KZT 360.7bn. Corporate news flow: 2025 dividend of KZT 335.2bn fully paid; Subsoil Use Code amended (Sept 2026, tighter equity thresholds for licence transfers); Zhalpak processing facility commissioned; TQZ sulphuric acid plant delayed 6-12 months (paleontological finds) — management says no material mining impact. New EGM called on major uranium supply contracts with China's State Nuclear Uranium Resource Development Co and Uranium One. Guidance trimmed slightly: FY2026 revenue now KZT 2,100-2,200bn (from 2,200-2,300bn) on KZT strength, C1 cost raised to $25.50-27.00/lb, AISC to $39.00-40.50/lb. Production/sales volumes unchanged (27,500-29,000 tU). My 2027 view: With spot trending near $85-90/lb (vs guidance base of ~$95-97/lb assumed long-term contract price) and utilities shifting hard from spot to long-term inventory security, pricing power keeps favoring Kazatomprom into 2027 — every incremental pound produced should reprice contracts higher even as cost inflation (MET, sulphuric acid, wellfield capex) persists. I'd model FY2027 revenue around KZT 2.3-2.5tn and Adjusted EBITDA in the KZT 850-950bn range (~$1.7-1.9bn), roughly 15-20% growth as realized prices catch up to spot. On current market cap ~$18.9bn and EV ~$19.2bn, that implies forward EV/EBITDA of roughly 8-9x on 2027E — broadly in line with the current TTM multiple (~8.4x), meaning the stock isn't pricing in much of the spot-driven upside yet if the uranium bull thesis (38-country pledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050) plays out. Risks: KZT/USD swings, MET/tax changes, TQZ delays, and JV non-controlling dilution of attributable EBITDA. Not investment advice — DYOR. #Uranium #Mining #KAP #Kazatomprom #NuclearEnergy

Tonies SE ($TNIE) H1 2026 Earnings Analysis 🧸 Tonies' latest H1 2026 results confirm their position as the dominant global audio platform for children, proving that their "razor-and-blade" ecosystem model is firing on all cylinders. Here is the deep dive into the numbers. Top-Line Acceleration & International Shift 🌍 Revenue jumped to €242.9M, marking an impressive +41.4% FX-adjusted YoY growth. The most crucial takeaway is the geographical pivot: North America is officially the primary growth engine. US/NA revenue surged 56.6% (FX-adjusted) to €110.6M, comfortably overtaking the legacy DACH market (€88.9M). With the Rest of World (RoW) segment also growing 42.6%, international markets now account for a massive 63% of total revenue. Tonies is no longer just a European success story; it is a global B2C powerhouse. Margin Dynamics & The Hardware Super-Cycle 🔄 Gross margin dialed back to 64.3% (from 70.9% in H1 2025). Rather than a sign of weakness, this is a strategic feature of their ecosystem. The drop is primarily driven by a massive +68.6% (FX-adj) spike in Toniebox sales following the highly anticipated Toniebox 2 launch. Selling lower-margin hardware rapidly expands the "installed base" (with 800,000 boxes sold this half, bringing the total to 12.6 million globally), locking in recurring, high-margin software and figure sales for years to come. Profitability & Cash Flow 💸 Adjusted EBITDA margin printed at 0.7% (€1.8M), successfully navigating temporary headwinds from new US tariffs and the hardware-heavy sales mix. Operationally, excellent SG&A leverage and fulfillment efficiencies are actively offsetting these raw margin pressures. Free Cash Flow came in at -€64.3M, which represents standard seasonality for the toy sector. The company is actively building up significant inventory for a massive Q4 holiday season, frontloading highly anticipated IP launches like Bluey, Hasbro, Pokémon, and the new Toniebox Lite. The Outlook 🔮 Management reaffirmed their strong 2026 guidance: >€760M group revenue, >30% US growth, and an end-of-year 9-11% Adj. EBITDA margin. They also reiterated their aggressive 2030 mid-term targets of >€1.4Bn in revenue with a 16-18% EBITDA margin. The thesis here is simple: Tonies is dominating the screen-free audio space with unparalleled IP partnerships and a highly sticky product ecosystem. The heavy lifting on international expansion is well underway, and long-term operating leverage is the next phase of the story. Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. Always do your own DD.

ASANTE GOLD $ASE.V $ASGOFA West African Gold Powerhouse Scaling Up - H1 2026 RESULTS & GUIDANCE UPDATE Trading at a 2027E EV/EBITDA of just ~2.0x! THE COMPANY Asante Gold is rapidly scaling its world-class Bibiani and Chirano gold mines in Ghana. With a highly experienced management team, the company is establishing a sustainable production platform in one of the planet's most prolific gold belts. The current asymmetric risk/reward setup is incredibly compelling. H1 2026 RESULTS & GUIDANCE The newly released Q2 and H1 2026 earnings highlight a massive operational turnaround, shifting from capital-intensive development to disciplined free cash flow generation: • H1 2026 Production: 117,076 oz (up 46.1% YoY) with record revenue of US$543.8M. • H1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: US$160.1M (a massive surge from US$4.4M in H1 2025). • 2026 Guidance: 275,000 – 300,000 oz at US$3,200 – US$3,600/oz AISC. • Cost Rationalization: Management has successfully deferred or canceled ~US$50M in planned capex. • H2 2026 Catalyst: Progressive access to higher-grade material at the Bibiani Main Pit is setting up a major operational inflection point weighted to Q4.The heavy lifting is behind them. The focus is squarely on predictable production, optimizing metallurgical recoveries, and aggressive margin expansion. 2027 FORECAST & VALUATION With live gold spot prices surging around ~US$4,400/oz, the operating leverage here is massive. As ongoing efficiency initiatives take hold, the 2027 outlook is highly lucrative: • 2027E Production: Ramping to ~340,000 oz as grade profiles optimize • 2027E AISC: Normalizing to ~US$3,000/oz. • 2027E EBITDA: At a US$4,400/oz gold spot price, this generates roughly US$476 Million in EBITDA (~$660 Million CAD). Let’s run the valuation metrics: • Market Cap: ~$954M CAD • Net Debt (excluding leases): ~$396M CAD (~$285M USD) • Enterprise Value (EV): ~$1.35 Billion CAD • 2027E Free Cash Flow (FCF): Projected at ~US$200M – US$250M, as capital intensity drops significantly and high-margin ounces drop straight to the bottom line Implied Valuation: Asante is currently trading at a 2027E EV/EBITDA of just ~2.0x! For a 300k+ oz producer operating tier-1 assets, this multiple represents a glaring mispricing in the market. As the turnaround is fully digested and H2 2026 grade improvements materialize, a substantial multiple re-rating is highly probable. Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. Always do your own DD.

🌾 Adecoagro S.A. $AGRO Deep Dive Research What Does Tether solana:Es9vMFrzaCERmJfrF4H2FYD4KCoNkY11McCe8BenwNYB Want With a Farm?🌾 1. Company Introduction Company: Adecoagro S.A. is a sustainable production company in South America. The company focuses on sugar, ethanol, energy, food and agriculture, and fertilizers. Shareholders: The company recently experienced a tender offer for its common shares by Tether for 12 Dollar a share. Consequently, strategic ownership is highly concentrated (with Tether holding a ~70-75% majority stake), while the remainder is split among institutional and retail investors. From Past to Future: Historically an operator of farming and sugar/ethanol assets, $AGRO is transitioning into an integrated digital-physical infrastructure asset under its new majority ownership. Technology: The company utilizes a continuous harvest model and highly flexible industrial assets to maximize either sugar or ethanol production based on margin environments. Management is also actively expanding biomethane production in Brazil. 2. Product Presentation & Current Developments Sugar, Ethanol & Energy: The company aggressively maximized ethanol production to a 78% mix in 6M26 to capture better margins. Total crushing volumes reached 5.8 million tons, which is up 16.8% year-over-year. Fertilizers: This segment has become a massive growth engine, with urea production increasing 21.6% year-over-year to 340 thousand tons in 2Q26. The average selling price for urea surged to $699/ton in 2Q26. Food & Agriculture: Grain productivity has improved, reaching previous record yields for wheat and peanut. However, segment margins were heavily pressured by lower global commodity prices for products like peanut, rice, and cheese. M&A Expansion: Adecoagro announced the strategic acquisition of the Caarapó mill in Mato Grosso do Sul for approximately $148 million. 3. Valuation Snapshot Market Cap: ~$1.28B - $1.30B. Gross Debt: $2.017 billion as of 2Q26. Cash & Short-Term Investments: $302.4 million in cash and $28.0 million in short-term investments. Net Debt: $1.687 billion, calculated without lease liabilities. Adjusted EBITDA: The pro forma Net Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA ratio is 3.0x, implying an LTM Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $562 million. EV: ~$2.97 billion. EV/EBITDA: ~5.3x. 4. Earnings Snapshot (6M26 Pro Forma) Gross Sales: Gross sales amounted to $928.2 million in 6M26. Adjusted EBITDA: Reached $258.3 million, marking a massive 60.2% increase year-over-year. The Fertilizers segment alone contributed $173.8 million to this total. Adjusted Net Income: Hit $29.1 million in 2Q26, reflecting a 170.0% increase versus 2Q25. 5. Peer Group Comparison Unlike traditional pure-play sugar and ethanol peers, Adecoagro's acquisition of a 90% stake in Profertil heavily diversifies its cash flow. The unique combination of sustainable agriculture, green energy exports, and domestic fertilizer production creates a highly defensive margin profile that trades at a discount compared to global agri-nutrient peers. 6. Forecast 2030 (Including EBITDA & Valuation) Assuming the successful integration of the 3.5 million tons of cane processing capacity from the Caarapó mill, a continued deleveraging process, and stable mid-cycle urea pricing. EBITDA Bridge: FY 2026E to FY 2030E 1. Base: FY 2026 Estimated Adjusted EBITDA — ~$560 Million Based on the 6M26 pro forma Adjusted EBITDA of $258.3 million and an implied LTM Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $562 million (derived from the 3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA ratio), i set a normalized baseline of roughly $560 million for the full year 2026. 2. Caarapó Mill Integration & S&E Cluster Expansion: + $90 Million Capacity Addition: The acquisition of the Caarapó mill adds 3.5 million tons of sugarcane crushing capacity, bringing total capacity to over 18 million tons. Operational Synergies: By applying Adecoagro’s continuous harvest model and routing surplus cane efficiently across the Mato Grosso do Sul cluster, the company will lower its blended cost of production. Ethanol & Sugar Flexibility: Expanding the flexible industrial base allows for greater margin capture depending on whether sugar or ethanol is trading at a premium. 3. Tether Synergies (Green Bitcoin Mining & Tokenization): + $75 Million Monetizing Stranded Energy: Adecoagro already exports excess energy generated from sugarcane biomass (bagasse). By diverting surplus or off-peak power to Tether's localized Bitcoin mining operations (like the 10 MW pilot), $AGRO monetizes energy at significantly higher effective rates than spot grid prices. Cost Reductions via USDT: Settling cross-border agricultural and fertilizer trades using Tether’s USDT infrastructure will structurally lower transaction fees, FX slippage, and financing costs, dropping directly to the bottom line. 4. Fertilizers (Profertil) Optimization & Capacity Creep: + $75 Million Production Efficiencies: In 6M26, the fertilizer segment proved its cash-generating power with zero downtime in 2Q26. Moving toward 2030, minor capital expenditures (debottlenecking and capacity creep) will increase total annual urea output without the need for a massive new facility. Margin Stabilization: Even if urea prices normalize at mid-cycle levels (~$480/ton), the enhanced cost dilution from higher production volumes and localized natural gas supply (Vaca Muerta) will drive steady EBITDA expansion. 5. F&A Margin Recovery & Biomethane Ramp-up: + $50 Million Commodity Rebound: The Food & Agriculture segment faced margin compression in 1H26 due to depressed prices in peanut, cheese, and rice. A normalization of global crop cycles and pricing by 2030 will restore historical margin profiles. Biomethane Generation: The ongoing expansion of biomethane production at the Brazilian sugar mills will replace fossil diesel usage in the company's own agricultural fleet, drastically cutting harvesting costs and generating new revenue streams through carbon credits (CBios). Target: FY 2030 Estimated Adjusted EBITDA — $850 Million Target EV/EBITDA: 6.0x (blended agribusiness/infrastructure multiple). Implied 2030 EV: $5.1 billion, representing massive equity upside as the company uses excess cash flow to reduce its leverage ratio. 7. Acquisition Potential Adecoagro is acting as the consolidator in the market, leveraging its operational expertise to acquire and integrate distressed or available assets like Caarapó. 8. Catalyst / Milestones in the next 6-12 Months M&A Closing: The completion of the Caarapó Mill acquisition is expected before October 1, 2026. Shareholder Returns: The second installment of the $35 million annual cash dividend is payable in November 2026. Margin Expansion: Profitability in the Food & Agriculture segment is expected to improve in the coming quarters as the new crop is fully commercialized. 9. The Crypto Angle: What Does Tether Want With a Farm? Tether’s majority stake is not just a traditional private equity play; it is a strategic bridge between digital finance and Real-World Assets (RWA). Tether aims to: Tokenization: Transform physical agricultural assets and land into tokenized instruments for DeFi collateral and hedging. Green Bitcoin Mining: Utilize $AGRO’s massive renewable energy generation (particularly sugarcane biomass) to power sustainable, scalable Bitcoin mining operations. USDT Integration: Settle cross-border agricultural commodity trades directly in USDT to slash transaction times and counterparty costs. Reserve Diversification: Funnel stablecoin profits into hard, inflation-resistant physical infrastructure in emerging markets to backstop the Tether ecosystem. 10. Opportunities / Risks Opportunities: The company strategically stored 41% of its year-to-date ethanol production to capitalize on higher expected prices later in the season. Outsized cash generation from the Fertilizers segment strongly supports the ongoing deleveraging process. Risks: Global urea prices have retreated from their peak back to mid-cycle levels of ~$480/ton CFR Brazil. Additionally, the appreciation of the Brazilian Real negatively impacted agricultural production costs. 11. Conclusion Adecoagro is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a traditional farming operator into a cash-flowing infrastructure juggernaut. With the Profertil integration fueling explosive EBITDA growth and the strategic umbrella of Tether's majority stake, $AGRO is uniquely positioned. The balance sheet is actively strengthening, and the company's operational flexibility remains a best-in-class moat. Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. Always do your own DD.

$DLO DLocal Q2/26 Earnings Forecast: Warum ein massiver Umsatz-Beat fast unausweichlich ist. dLocal steht vor den Q2-Zahlen und der Markt unterschätzt die aktuelle Cross-Border-Dynamik in den Emerging Markets. Bei einem aktuellen Kurs von 15,20 USD und einer Market Cap von 4,48 Mrd. USD erwarte ich, dass die Konsensschätzung von 366,77 Mio. USD beim Umsatz deutlich pulverisiert wird. Meine datenbasierte Prognose liegt bei 382 bis 389 Mio. USD. Wie lässt sich das herleiten? Hier ist der Deep Dive: 1. Die Consumer-Nachfrage eskaliert (B2C) MercadoLibre ($MELI ) meldete ein gewaltiges Volumenwachstum von +170 % aus asiatischen Fulfillment-Centern. Jumia ($JMIA ) verzeichnete in Afrika einen Anstieg von +96 % bei Artikeln internationaler Händler. Die Konsumenten in diesen Regionen kaufen grenzüberschreitend wie nie zuvor – und dLocal fungiert hier als die zentrale Mautstelle. 2. Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Boom Adidas meldete für das zweite Quartal in Lateinamerika ein DTC-Wachstum von enormen +37 %. Wenn globale Premium-Brands ihre eigenen Online-Shops in Schwellenländern ausbauen, benötigen sie zwingend lokale Zahlungslösungen, um die Conversion-Rate hoch zu halten. dLocal liefert genau diese Brücke über eine einzige API. 3. Harte B2B- & Infrastruktur-Fakten Die jüngsten Q2-Zahlen der direkten Peers liefern den ultimativen Proof of Concept. Payoneer ($PAYO) meldete +48 % Wachstum im B2B-Volumen, Flywire ($FLYW) ein TPV-Wachstum von +38,2 %, und Adyen ($ADYEN) legte währungsbereinigt um +21 % beim Umsatz zu. Die digitalen Rohrleitungen des internationalen Zahlungsverkehrs laufen auf absoluten Hochtouren. Fazit: Der Local-to-Local-Turbo in Kombination mit der asiatischen E-Commerce-Expansion treibt das Total Payment Volume (TPV) in LatAm und Afrika so stark an, dass ein deutlicher Umsatz-Beat heute Abend unvermeidlich scheint. Beim EPS (Erwartung: 0,18 USD) gehe ich aufgrund laufender Infrastruktur-Investitionen von einem punktgenauen Treffer aus.

Deep Dive: Infleqtion $INFQ – The Neutral-Atom Quantum Powerhouse ⚛️ 1️⃣ Company Introduction Infleqtion is scaling neutral-atom technology across quantum computing, precision timing, and sensing. 👥 Shareholders: It is publicly traded following its early 2026 merger with Churchill Capital Corp X. ⚠️ Considering over 90% of post-merger SPACs have historically underperformed or suffered massive value erosion, tread carefully with these high-risk vehicles. Retail ~64%, Insiders/Founders ~26%, Institutions ~10%. Short Interest sits around ~15%. 🚀 Past to Future: Building on 20+ years of innovation and technology operating on the International Space Station since 2018, they are shifting from nature-made qubits to fault-tolerant systems targeting >50 logical qubits. 🔬 Technology: Utilizes identical qubits by nature with optical control and reconfigurable large atom arrays. 2️⃣ Product & Current Developments A diversified portfolio spanning space, air, sea, and ground. Key products include Tiqker (precision timing commercializing with Safran), QUIRC (AI for complex RF sensor data), and quantum gravity sensors. They boast 100s of quantum customers across government and enterprise. 3️⃣ Valuation Snapshot • Share Price: $12.36 • Market Cap: ~$2.78B • Enterprise Value (EV): ~$2.20B • Net Debt: -$582M • EBITDA (TTM): ~$(60)M (negativ) 4️⃣ Earnings Snapshot (Q2 2026) • Record Revenue: $12.6M, representing +116% YoY growth. • Non-GAAP Operating Loss: $(17.0)M as they invest heavily in headcount and R&D. • Raised 2026 Revenue Outlook: ~$43M. • Operating Cash Burn: $(36.3)M. 5️⃣ Peer Group Comparison Infleqtion distinguishes itself from pure-play peers like IonQ and Rigetti with actual deployed hardware and heavy defense integration. Looking at current Market Cap to Revenue multiples: • $IONQ : ~$20.1B Market Cap / ~$180M TTM Revenue = ~112x Multiple • $RGTI : ~$6.9B Market Cap / ~$17.6M Annualized Revenue = ~392x Multiple • $INFQ: ~$2.78B Market Cap / ~$43M 2026 Revenue Outlook = ~65x Multiple INFQ trades at a significant discount to peers despite its robust revenue growth and commercial traction. 6️⃣ Forecast 2030 (EBITDA & Valuation) With the broader quantum market projected to hit $7B-$10B by 2030, INFQ's dual computing/sensing pipeline could generate $400M–$500M in revenue. Assuming a maturing 20% margin profile, 2030 EBITDA targets ~$100M. At a 25x–30x EV/EBITDA multiple typical for hyper-growth tech, the 2030 EV projection lands at $2.5B–$3.0B, suggesting stability with massive optionality if commercial grid applications scale. 7️⃣ Acquisition Potential A highly attractive target. HPC/AI giants (NVIDIA, AWS, Microsoft) could acquire INFQ for full-stack neutral-atom computing, or defense primes (L3Harris, BAE Systems) might target their unmatched quantum sensing and RF portfolio. 8️⃣ Catalysts & Milestones (6-12 Months) • Achieving 30 logical qubits in 2026. • Finalizing the proposed $100M U.S. Dept of Commerce funding. • Preparing for the 2027 Illinois Quantum Park deployment. 9️⃣ Opportunities & Risks ✅ Opportunities: Multi-million-dollar program with Eaton for U.S. grid resilience and an un-matched portfolio of deployed technology. Revenue is scaling faster than costs. ⚠️ Risks: Quantum commercialization timelines frequently slip. The $(36.3)M quarterly operating cash burn requires flawless execution to avoid future shareholder dilution before profitability. Over 90% of post-merger SPACs have historically underperformed. 🔟 Conclusion Infleqtion offers one of the most mature, revenue-generating profiles in the quantum sector. With deep ties to NASA, DARPA, and the MoD, it is a high-risk, high-reward pioneer leading the neutral-atom race. Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. Always do your own DD.