Called $BTC bullish on Oct 2, 2023: $BTC rose 160% in 5 months.
View call →
Bitcoin & Crypto Insights | On-chain analyst | Verified Author on @CryptoQuant_com | 🎬 https://t.co/VIWsjK9oBX | Not financial advice
accuracy score 68.8 on BTC over 156 BTC calls · 1,709 days of data · rank 9 of 141 BTC analysts (top 6.4% of the pool) · top 0.60% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide · v20r-multi-sparsepen-strong-ss12m-20261012, computed Nov 11, 2026 · Methodology →
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 156 directional calls on BTC by @IT_Tech_PL on CryptoQuant since Aug 2021: ranked #9 of 141 analysts scored on BTC by accuracy — in the Top 1% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (1)
Relative view by default: IT Tech’s calls are mostly nuanced, so each day is read against their usual tone.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @it_tech to submit corrections.
Called $BTC bullish on Oct 2, 2023: $BTC rose 160% in 5 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
USDC supply growth turned negative on Oct 3. $BTC topped at 86.5K the next day
USDT supply shrinks 3.93% in 30 days, a one-year low. USDC drops 3.44% as traders pull cash out of crypto. BTC bounces stay weak until stablecoins return.
View original →Bitcoin Is Back Above Recent Buyers' Cost Basis. The Readings Underneath Weakened.
Bitcoin traded between $74,888 and 81,196 this week. At the time of writing (Sunday), the weekly candle is still open at 75,884, down 3.15%. That makes it five consecutive red weeks. The midterm results pushed Bitcoin above $80,000 on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Nasdaq had its worst session since April 2025, and Bitcoin gave back the entire move. On-chain data shows that recent buyers sold at a loss for a second consecutive week. Once again, the selling eased around their average cost, although price briefly dipped below it. Price is back above that level, but fewer of the readings I track support it than a week ago. Last week I said I would watch the weekly close against the STH realized price, the average cost basis of recent buyers. Friday’s low dipped about 1% below that level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is back 0.3% above it, with the STH realized price at $75,659. 🔗 Stay Connected 🎥 YouTube: Onchain_Insights - English | IT Tech PL - Polish | Hub: btc-analysis.com Free on-chain dashboard: btc-analysis.com/dashboard A Blue Wave Hit Tech Stocks, and Bitcoin Fell With Them Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections. Wall Street first rallied on the result, and Bitcoin rose with it. On Wednesday, a short squeeze carried Bitcoin above 80,000, and it reached the week's high of $81,196. Thursday reversed all of it. Investors sold chip and AI stocks on fears of tighter scrutiny of AI data centers after Democrats won Congress. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5%, and the S&P 500 4.4%, both their worst sessions since April 2025, and the Nasdaq Composite closed in correction, more than 10% below its October record. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 lost 4.91% and closed at 26,989.99, below its summer lows. The S&P 500 lost 2.68% for the week to 7,376.86 and closed inside the demand zone marked on the chart. Bitcoin, with its candle still open at the time of writing (Sunday), is down 3.15%. Last week Bitcoin fell about 1.3 times as much as the Nasdaq 100. This week it fell less than the Nasdaq 100 and more than the S&P 500. Friday’s jobs report added pressure. U.S. employers added 165,000 jobs in October, against about 65,000 expected, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. According to Reuters, traders now price in about a 78% chance of a Fed rate hike at the 8-9 December meeting, up from about 70% before the release. On Thursday, the Bank of England raised its rate to 4%, its first hike in more than three years. CryptoQuant's order flow panel shows where the selling came from. The 90-day taker CVD (cumulative volume delta, aggressive buying minus aggressive selling) on Bitcoin futures reads "Taker Sell Dominant", and futures volume reads "Heating". On the spot side, the taker CVD is neutral, and the average order size reads "Big Whale Orders". I read this as futures traders pushing price down while large spot orders took the other side. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28B this week, and their total net assets stand at 95.90B. Bitcoin’s weekly loss was decided on Wall Street. The midterm rally lifted it, the AI sell-off took it back, and a hotter jobs report made a December hike more likely. Bitcoin is trading as a risk asset tied to tech stocks. Gold Rose and AI Chips Fell, and Crypto Followed the Chips The TOP 300 heatmap is mostly red over a rolling seven-day period, which starts on Sunday rather than Monday like the weekly candle. Bitcoin fell 3.04% and Hyperliquid 12.55%. Among the few green tiles are two gold-backed tokens, PAX Gold up 4.04% and Tether Gold up 4.63%. Artemis's five-day sector view shows the same rotation. Gold Miners led with a 13.3% gain, and Memory & Storage fell 23.0%, with AI Chips & Semis down 15.2%. Every crypto sector on the board fell, and Crypto Exchanges & Brokers was the weakest at -8.6%. Money left AI and crypto this week, and part of it moved into gold. With the weekly candles still open at the time of writing (Sunday), TOTAL market cap is down 3.13% at $2.52T. OTHERS (total market cap excluding the top 10) is down 4.82% at 204.9B, after a small gain last week. BTC.D (Bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap) is flat at 60.50%. Small caps fell harder than Bitcoin, yet Bitcoin's share did not grow, because Ethereum fell less, by 1.78% on the heatmap. 🔐 Premium Insights Last week I watched whether price would hold the average cost of recent buyers. At the time of writing, it is back above it, and the readings underneath weakened. Below the paywall, I show the day recent buyers sold the most coins at a loss this week, which was not the day of the low, and what happened to the paper profit of the largest wallets among them. Then I look at older holders, whose share of exchange inflows spiked on election day, and check whether it kept rising. One U.S. demand reading improved sharply, while spot demand on-chain fell to its lowest in more than a year. You’ll also see which composite indicator crossed the line I named last week as a reason to change my view, and what I changed. The updated support map shows where the next on-chain floor sits if the current one gives way, and the two conditions that would turn this correction into a bigger one. Upgrade to a paid subscription to read the full breakdown. Read more
View original →Bitcoin short-term holders flipped from profit-taking to loss-selling in 24 hours
Short-term holders dump 32,695 BTC to exchanges at a loss near 75.5K. Loss share hits 89% of STH inflows in 24 hours. Every wave prints a lower low; 75.5K must hold.
View original →Bitcoin Found Buyers at $76K, but Only at a Discount
Bitcoin traded between $76,326 and 81,971 this week. At the time of writing (Sunday), the weekly candle is still open at 78,057, down 2.62%, the fourth red week in a row. The Fed held rates on Wednesday, and on Thursday evening Binance lost $6.3B in the largest crypto theft on record. Friday’s tech sell-off on Wall Street pushed Bitcoin to the week’s low. On-chain, recent buyers sold at a loss for the first time since August, and the low formed just above their average cost. Every coin sold there found a buyer, and this issue looks at who those buyers were and what they paid. Last week I wrote that I would check whether the low still held above the 365-day moving average after the FOMC and PCE releases. It did not: the week’s low of $76,326 broke that average below, now at 77,075, before price climbed back above it. 🔗 Stay Connected 🎥 YouTube: Onchain_Insights - English | IT Tech PL - Polish | Hub: btc-analysis.com Free on-chain dashboard: btc-analysis.com/dashboard A Hawkish Fed, a $6.3B Hack and a Tech Sell-Off in Three Days On Wednesday, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) held its rate at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted another 0.25 percentage point hike. After the decision, futures markets priced about an 85% chance of a hike at the 9 December meeting. Thursday’s data did not help. U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2%, and the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index rose 0.5% in September alone, 3.6% year over year. Core PCE, without food and energy, stood at 3.1%. The same evening, attackers drained about $6.3B from Binance hot wallets across several blockchains. TRM Labs and Chainalysis attribute the theft to TraderTraitor, a North Korea-linked group. Binance paused withdrawals, said it would cover all losses from its SAFU emergency fund, part of its futures insurance fund and its own treasury, and reopened withdrawals in phases on Sunday, starting with Bitcoin. On Friday the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86%, its worst day since June, after Intel lost 28.6%. Bitcoin fell below 77,000 for the first time in more than a month and reached the week’s low of 76,326. About $1.5B in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, mostly longs. The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.98% for the week and the S&P 500 0.57%. With its candle still open at the time of writing (Sunday), Bitcoin is down 2.62%, about 1.3 times as much as the Nasdaq 100. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.93%, down 7 basis points. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $31.3 million this week, close to flat. Ether ETFs lost 335.3 million, Solana ETFs 71.6 million, and XRP ETFs took in 4.8 million. Last week’s Bitcoin ETF figure has been revised to an inflow of 301.2 million, against the 411.5 million I had at the time of writing #200. In my view, the hack decided when Bitcoin fell, and the weakness under it was already there. Bitcoin was down for three weeks before Thursday and had been moving with tech stocks, so it had little room to absorb a shock like this one. Every Crypto Sector Fell, and Small Caps Held Up Better Than Bitcoin Most of the TOP 300 heatmap is red. Over a rolling seven days, which start on Sunday rather than Monday like the weekly candle, Bitcoin fell 3.19% and Solana 5.69%. Hyperliquid was the largest exception, up 15.43%. The gains were limited to a few single names, and the rest of the market fell with Bitcoin. On Artemis's five-day sector view, every crypto sector finished in the red, with DeFi Lending & Yield the weakest at -6.8%. Semiconductor Equipment stocks led the board with a 5.2% gain. Money went into chip stocks this week and left crypto across the board. Ethereum is still the weaker large cap. On CryptoQuant's order flow panel, the 90-day taker CVD (cumulative volume delta, net aggressive buying minus selling) on Ethereum futures reads "Taker Sell Dominant" for a fifth week. The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Gap, a proxy for U.S. spot buying, was negative in all 168 hours of the week, the third week in a row without a single positive hour. It was deepest on 30 October, the day after the hack. With the weekly candles still open at the time of writing (Sunday), TOTAL market cap is down 2.41% at $2.59T. TOTAL2 (total market cap excluding Bitcoin) is down 2.03% at 1.03T. OTHERS (total market cap excluding the top 10) is up 0.30% at 216.39B. BTC.D (Bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap) slipped 0.15 percentage points to 60.41%, its second weekly decline. One green week in small caps does not change the month. As I wrote on Friday, altcoins outside Bitcoin and Ethereum gave back half of their summer rally in October. Binance has since reopened withdrawals, so one of the risks I named in that post is now off the table. 🔐 Premium Insights Bitcoin fell to a new low for this correction, just above the price where recent buyers turn from profit to loss, and the selling there found buyers. Below the paywall, I show how many coins recent buyers sent to exchanges at a loss, what happened to the paper profit of the largest recent buyers in a single day, and whether older holders started moving coins to exchanges. Then I look at my new U.S. demand indicator, which puts the Coinbase discount in the context of the last 30 days, and at the hour it hit its deepest reading in almost six months. You’ll also get the updated support map, my read on where price goes next, and the two conditions that would turn this correction into a bigger one. Upgrade to a paid subscription to read the full breakdown. Read more
View original →$BTC short-term holders just sent coins to exchanges at a loss for the first time in 72 days
Short-term holders send BTC to exchanges at a loss for the first time in 72 days. Price slides from 83.6K to 77.8K in 9 days. The last two flips came before 23-28% drops.
View original →
