ConvexityMaven – Analyst | CryptoQuant

ConvexityMaven

@ConvexityMaven on X

Creator of $MOVE Index; $PFIX; $RFIX; $MTBA Publisher of (the free) Convexity Maven Commentary https://t.co/OwX9kW3iOu

—Not yet ranked · 3 calls since 2019

Details

Methodology →

Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 3 directional calls by @ConvexityMaven on X since Oct 2019: tracked, not yet ranked (below the accuracy-scoring baseline) (as of Oct 10, 2026).

Current Bias— Inactive 3+ months

Accurate In—

Total Calls3

Cited— No press citations in the last 12 months

Total Bull/Bear21

Recent Calls

UVXYBullish

3/20/2025 on

$MOVE vs $VIX inflection.... The popular story of 2023 was the massive increase in the MOVE Index (orange -bond volatility) vs the decline in the VIX Index (white - equity volatility). We are now back to our regularly scheduled programming of a rising VIX relative to the MOVE. Yesterday, the FED confirmed a relatively constrained policy due to the uncertainty of Fiscal/Tax policies. This uncertainty will bleed risk to Equities (and Credit) and away from Interest Rates. With the MOVE (91.4) trading above "actual" rate volatility (84.8) while the VIX (19.9) is marking below actual stock volatility (21.1); expect a continuation of this process. Buy MBS, sell Credit....

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NeutralSPYUVXY

11/6/2024 on

Options market forecasting - UPDATE: Bond: Implied = + /- 17bp; Actual = -16.8bp SPX: Implied = + /- 102pts; Actual = 120 pts Gold: Implied = + /- $44; Actual = -$81 MOVE prior = 130; now 117 VIX prior = 20.49; now 15.87 Good luck today. hb @profplum99 @biancoresearch @EconguyRosie @dampedspring @jam_croissant @JeffSnider_EDU @ErikSTownsend

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NeutralSPYUVXY

11/5/2024 on

Election "break even" analysis... UST 10yr rate: 17bps; 1.33 points $MOVE now @ 136 SPX: 1.8% or 102 points $VIX now @ 20.3 Gold: 1.6% or $44 Let's hope it's a clear victory....either way @profplum99 @biancoresearch @LukeGromen @EconguyRosie @jam_croissant @dampedspring

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UVXYNeutral

10/28/2024 on

Volatility Tale of the Tape....since 1990: $MOVE Average: 92.6 $MOVE Current: 128.7 $VIX Average: 19.27 $VIX Current: 19.02 Options market price for "Election event": Interest rates: 18bps SP 500: 2% https://t.co/uYuEXFZAp5 https://t.co/nFX3qTDfZC

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UVXYNeutral

11/14/2023 on

MBS is effectively an interest rate "buy-write" with an embedded Curve Steepener T10yr @ 4.46% IG Corp @ 5.11% FN 3% @ 5.17% MBS Index @ 5.25% FN 6% @ 6.05% New Issue "MBS Strategy" ~5.90% $MOVE @ 124 (vs Avg = ~95) $VIX @ 14.5 (vs Avg = ~20) https://t.co/Kr7T3KEGuK https://t.co/Qx5lqVqY0I

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