BTCBitcoinBullish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

8/10/2023 on

Breakout Incoming

Hi there, would like to share what I have observed from the market recently. Dominance Ratio chart shows dominance for bitcoin, ETH, stable coin and Altcoins are all close to 0. historically this case resulted in a quick breakout in BTC price and caused a lot of liquidity. As of now it seems like that bitcoin dominance is breaking above the 0 and stable coin dominance is going below 0. if this moves continues to happen for the next 3 - 4 days it is most likely that bitcoin will move to the upside. Funding rate is above average and bitcoin price is at a Major support and resistance level which you can see from the image below. Advice - keep an eye on bitcoin dominance chart - watch closely the UTXO realised price age bands - watch for the major support and Resistance level chart If bitcoin dominance is up and stable coin dominance is down = bitcoin going up if stable coin dominance is up and bitcoin dominance down = bitcoin going down if bitcoin dominance down Alt-coins dominance up = alt coins up Personally based on technical and on chain and cyclical price will go up over the next few weeks however I'm certain before every up move there is going to be a very short liquidity move for just 2-3 days before going up as leverage ratio is high, open interest are high and funding rate is positive. so place your stop lose carefully.    

BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin

7/7/2023 on

Price behaviour from a cyclical and mathematical perspective (+ On chain)

Hi There, Recently I have been monitoring the BTC price using cyclical and mathematical approach and I found few interesting things that I would like to show. Image 1; It is observed that the declining degree from the top to the bottom foe the 2nd and 3rd cycles were exactly (-40 degree), however it is quite interesting to mention that even the mini correction before the last bull market correction was found to be at (-40 degree). if you measure the days period from the 1st candle that touches the (-40 degree) red line to the top of each bull run you will notice that the periods are identical (1067 days) which is not a coincidence. However, the last bear market crash exceeded the expected bottom and declined to the degree of -47 instead of -40. image 2; if we look at the bigger image and draw a Fibonacci cross grid for each cycle I noticed that the 1st early cycle bottom to top is not 1067 days but rather is a 1140 days, so i neglected the 1st one and will use the 2nd and 3rd cycle days reading for the current cycle price performance predication. it is observed that each cycle start its rapid bull market which there are no more corrections and only rapid upward moves when exceeding the Fibonacci level of 50%, also it can be seen that for the 1st half of the cycle price moves horizontally for nearly 540 days. so as for the current cycle price will go through a horizontal period and many liquidity traps will occur, don't expect the bull market to start now even though those twitter ppl are spreading FOMO, does it make sense to start bull market this early ? Image 3,4; MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings are in positive now (his PnL is green) and every time this happens we see a short drawdown (probably investors fear of him selling). image 3 is the realised price for 3 different UTXO bands. keep an eye on it as important SR levels. Thanks for reading, hope everyone a good opportunity     

BTCBitcoinBearish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

6/23/2023 on

Liquidity Traps Before the Bull

Hi there, would like to highlight about at which phase we are in right now in the market. 1- Based on UTXO age bands we formed the bottom due to the shifting event that occurred which I spoke about before. historically it was proven that this period last for 1-2 years which so far we been around 300 days till now. 2- supply in P/L was a great metric for a clear visualization on how this liquidity period affects the market supply. (simply people are throwing money in which cause the price to increase slightly for the whales to wipe out the profit and balance the supply that's in profit and that's in lose). currently these days we are having high % of supply in profit. 3- Funding rates for derivatives are currently positively high compared to average which means that long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay funding to short traders. So we have High funding rates + high % of supply in profit that's ready to be liquidated + being in a horizontal market according to my UTXO chart. just be carful these months and take advantages of the liquidity (just look at previous liquidity in a similar period from last cycles and learn how to benefit them)    

BTCBitcoinBearishBitcoin

4/3/2023 on

Next probable correction

Hi there. Historically based on time cycle analysis, the 45.8 weeks cycle occurs after a quick crash usually ranging from 30% to 40%. this cycle will approximately occur in 40 days. so stay safe and trade carefully, another thing that's increasing the probability of the upcoming liquidity move is the net unrealised profit for BTC and the weekly resistance point for bitcoin. NUP shows a profitable cash that's yet to be withdrawal from the market as its not yet realised. Trade Carefully everyone.    

BTCBitcoinBullish(Nuanced)Bitcoin

3/26/2023 on

Shifting point between long term holders and new buyers

Hi there, I would like to share with you that this method in identifying the approximate time in which the new bull market shall start is very useful specially for long term investment with high ROI ratio. When the long aged stored coins are accumulated for long time metric is decreasing until the intersection point between the (6m-12m and the 12m-18m) this drop is due to 2 things. 1st these coins are shifted into older age bands which means they are not sold 2nd these coins are shifted into younger age bands which means these coins were circulated in the supply making its life time counter start from 1 day. when there is a rapid decrease in coins that been stored in this particular period of time (6m-18m) historically it showed a good indication of the presence of an under-valued market. a stage where these coins are shifted into a younger age bands which means some people are accumulating some future investment specially when there is a noticeable increase in the young age bands even few moths before the new bull market start. as for now we are at the under-values stage and is a good time for future investment with a good ROI ratio.