tanasta2

The Coinbase premium index reached an ATH of 1 shortly after the US regional banks fails which indicates strong buying pressure from US investors. Some people are moving their money to crypto and it is also reflected in the price action as Bitcoin rallied from 20k to slightly over 25k, and it seems to be holding strong at 24-25k looking to actually break the 25k level soon.   

We can see that the ma50 had never crossed the ma200 (on the weekly) until recently. In the 2014-2016 bear market, they only had gotten very close but there was no death cross. Also, never in BTC history the bear market low had touched the previous bull market top until recently we actually went below 19k (the previous bull market top). Would history not repeat itself at this time? Would the fate of Bitcoin be different now? Let me know what do you think   

Since Nov 2021 up to Oct 2022 (almost a year), we are seeing quite weird thing happening in the market in which bitcoin took unexpected downturns, but the estimated leverage ratio kept getting higher and higher. The market finally realized that these highly leveraged positions are sustainable. I still expect this leverage ratio to further go down, as many would lose hope in the market, as the market is consolidating for a move higher.  

If we look at the MVRV during the past two cycles, every time it went above 1 after a market crash it never went back down below 1. So far BTC has rallied around 35% from the bottom. Still a fantastic price to buy for the long-term if you haven't bought any (I have at 18-22k). The next resistance is at 27k and 30k. Expect a slow rally or sideways movement around 27-30k or 22-27k. Unless the Nasdaq and S&P 500 went lower than the previous bottom, bitcoin will not go lower than 17-18k.   

UTXO in loss is only at 27%. In the previous period of capitulation in late 2018 to early 2019 & in the peak covid crash (March 2020), the value was at 54% and 61% percent respectively. However, NUPL and MVRV indicate that now it is one of the best buying opportunities historically. Based on the historical data, you're very likely to do amazing with your investment, if you start to accumulate Bitcoin in this price range. Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results.    

The total supply of stable coins peaked this March 2022 and has been going down since. With the current LUNA-UST catastrophe, rapidly rising interest rates environment, and wars, people are de-risking themselves even by getting out from stablecoins. Google trends are showing low interest in Bitcoin. The latest all-time high rally in Nov 2021 was mostly due to institutional movements. Retail interests have been low since May last year. I still remain very bullish on BTC and other quality cryptos for the long term, but in the short term, we cannot ignore all these catastrophic events that are happening all at the same time   

We can see in the 2017-2018 period BTC funding rates were very volatile with sudden & abrupt changes. The volatility was also reflected in its price action. Now it is different. Since December last year, BTC funding rates have been very close to zero. This indicates a very strong and stable price of BTC and the pattern is similar to the ones from May 2020 to Oct 2020 before BTC went on an ultra bullish price action.   

As seen on the first pic, when exchanges reserves rise a lot, generally it is a bad sign, especially combined with the market euphoria as we have never seen before in early 2021. When exchange reserves decrease it is a bullish sign as seen in the most recent rally to a new ATH. However, the exchange reserves have been decreasing also since then why hasn't it reflected on the BTC price action yet? Generally, because the sentiment hasn't been any good 1. S&P500 and Nasdaq market slumps 2. Russian Ukraine war 3. Omicron & uncertain new normal Impact on rising interest rates hurts the stock market because of lesser borrowing power esp in growth companies, but it actually has almost nothing to do with crypto. However, we must not forget that the market is dictated by emotion, when the stock market down people generally panic first and also sell their other investments at first, once they realize that these phenomena actually don't affect certain asset classes, their prices will go up.   

When the price of BTC goes up for a period of time, say Early 2021. The price of BTC also went up. Theoretically, we should see more stablecoins converted to BTC and other altcoins when the price of BTC rises. But that is not the case (see two periods I marked on the chart). I think we should stop the assumption that when the amount of stablecoins are increasing on the market, then they are ready to buy the dip on Bitcoin and other crypto. This might be true a few years ago where you can't do much with your stablecoins but now there are DEFI platforms that offer up to 20% APY for stablecoin deposits. There are just so many things you can do with your stablecoins with minimal risk.  

In the last 6 months. BTC went up by 135% from 22th July low to a new ATH The total crypto market cap went up by 157% during the same period BTC then went down by 40% whereas the total crypto market cap only went down by 36%. The total crypto market cap also counted altcoins that performed terribly in the last 6 months like Neo, Dogecoin & Tron. If we were to filter top coins like Atom, Solana, or Avalanche. The alts' outperformance would widen by a huge amount.