It’s almost all royalties, which rise with the gold price. However, gold mining costs will rise further thanks to rising diesel prices among other inflationary factors. But an industry average AISC of $1800 is extremely attractive at $4500 gold. https://t.co/Uvb5ghGzDk

I’m kind of in profit taking mode, waiting for a new opportunity. This game is won by mostly hitting singles and then swinging hard at the fat pitch. I actually live by the quote in bio and right now I’m trying not to be a pig. So, reducing refiners, energy, gold miners, copper miners, and lately adding to steel and aluminum names. But that’s low conviction so I don’t post about it.

Here’s what Grok summarized… Refining Oct 9, 2025: “If you’ve owned gold miners, I’d take those profits and buy copper miners… Maybe some energy, I like refiners.” You followed up in November noting it was already working, and kept highlighting refiners through 2026 (“just kept going,” “sticking with this trade”). Outcome: Refiners were among 2026’s biggest winners—often 100%+ YTD—on exploded crack spreads from Hormuz disruption. Early, high-conviction call. Gold-to-energy rotation The same Oct 2025 post rotated capital from gold miners into copper/energy/refiners. You stayed long energy equities through the war while remaining constructive on gold dips. Outcome: Gold peaked near $5,600 in late January 2026 then corrected ~28% to the $4,000 area. Energy equities delivered strong multi-leg gains. The relative shift captured the outperformance. Metals at the lows June–July 2026 (gold testing $4,000): You called gold equities “so cheap” even at those levels and on July 17 shifted “some exposure from energy equities to miners,” citing attractive valuations, washed-out retail, and copper/lithium/uranium. Outcome: Precious metals bottomed in late June near $4,000 and rebounded into August. Timely buy. Energy again You stayed long refiners/energy, then on August 5 rotated “back from miners to energy and fertilizers.” Outcome: Energy stocks had further upside legs as Hormuz tensions persisted after the temporary June MOU collapsed. Iran: no deal—invasion or Iran controls the Strait From late March 2026 onward you repeated the binary: “two potential outcomes… surrendering control of the Strait to Iran” or “boots on the ground.” Multiple posts: “I’ve said this over and over… Iran, through the IRGC, controls the Strait.” In August you noted proposed deals giving Iran control with “Told ya.” Outcome: Temporary mid-June MOU unraveled. No lasting deal, no full invasion. Iran retained significant de-facto leverage over the Strait—exactly the framing you held. Overall: Early refining preference, sustained energy exposure, metals dip-buy near the lows, rotation back into energy, and the repeated Iran call all lined up with the major moves and geopolitical reality. Solid, coherent commodity track record.

A troll questioned my “track record” today and frankly I was a bit triggered. I’ve been money. Here’s what Grok summarized… Refining Oct 9, 2025: “If you’ve owned gold miners, I’d take those profits and buy copper miners… Maybe some energy, I like refiners.” You followed up in November noting it was already working, and kept highlighting refiners through 2026 (“just kept going,” “sticking with this trade”). Outcome: Refiners were among 2026’s biggest winners—often 100%+ YTD—on exploded crack spreads from Hormuz disruption. Early, high-conviction call. Gold-to-energy rotation The same Oct 2025 post rotated capital from gold miners into copper/energy/refiners. You stayed long energy equities through the war while remaining constructive on gold dips. Outcome: Gold peaked near $5,600 in late January 2026 then corrected ~28% to the $4,000 area. Energy equities delivered strong multi-leg gains. The relative shift captured the outperformance. Metals at the lows June–July 2026 (gold testing $4,000): You called gold equities “so cheap” even at those levels and on July 17 shifted “some exposure from energy equities to miners,” citing attractive valuations, washed-out retail, and copper/lithium/uranium. Outcome: Precious metals bottomed in late June near $4,000 and rebounded into August. Timely buy. Energy again You stayed long refiners/energy, then on August 5 rotated “back from miners to energy and fertilizers.” Outcome: Energy stocks had further upside legs as Hormuz tensions persisted after the temporary June MOU collapsed. Iran: no deal—invasion or Iran controls the Strait From late March 2026 onward you repeated the binary: “two potential outcomes… surrendering control of the Strait to Iran” or “boots on the ground.” Multiple posts: “I’ve said this over and over… Iran, through the IRGC, controls the Strait.” In August you noted proposed deals giving Iran control with “Told ya.” Outcome: Temporary mid-June MOU unraveled. No lasting deal, no full invasion. Iran retained significant de-facto leverage over the Strait—exactly the framing you held. Overall: Early refining preference, sustained energy exposure, metals dip-buy near the lows, rotation back into energy, and the repeated Iran call all lined up with the major moves and geopolitical reality. Solid, coherent commodity track record.

Here’s what grok gave me: Refining Oct 9, 2025: “If you’ve owned gold miners, I’d take those profits and buy copper miners… Maybe some energy, I like refiners.” You followed up in November noting it was already working, and kept highlighting refiners through 2026 (“just kept going,” “sticking with this trade”). Outcome: Refiners were among 2026’s biggest winners—often 100%+ YTD—on exploded crack spreads from Hormuz disruption. Early, high-conviction call. Gold-to-energy rotation The same Oct 2025 post rotated capital from gold miners into copper/energy/refiners. You stayed long energy equities through the war while remaining constructive on gold dips. Outcome: Gold peaked near $5,600 in late January 2026 then corrected ~28% to the $4,000 area. Energy equities delivered strong multi-leg gains. The relative shift captured the outperformance. Metals at the lows June–July 2026 (gold testing $4,000): You called gold equities “so cheap” even at those levels and on July 17 shifted “some exposure from energy equities to miners,” citing attractive valuations, washed-out retail, and copper/lithium/uranium. Outcome: Precious metals bottomed in late June near $4,000 and rebounded into August. Timely buy. Energy again You stayed long refiners/energy, then on August 5 rotated “back from miners to energy and fertilizers.” Outcome: Energy stocks had further upside legs as Hormuz tensions persisted after the temporary June MOU collapsed. Iran: no deal—invasion or Iran controls the Strait From late March 2026 onward you repeated the binary: “two potential outcomes… surrendering control of the Strait to Iran” or “boots on the ground.” Multiple posts: “I’ve said this over and over… Iran, through the IRGC, controls the Strait.” In August you noted proposed deals giving Iran control with “Told ya.” Outcome: Temporary mid-June MOU unraveled. No lasting deal, no full invasion. Iran retained significant de-facto leverage over the Strait—exactly the framing you held. Overall: Early refining preference, sustained energy exposure, metals dip-buy near the lows, rotation back into energy, and the repeated Iran call all lined up with the major moves and geopolitical reality. Solid, coherent commodity track record.

This was a very contrarian trade. Turns out, a pretty good one. And now, I like the gold miners again. Do with that what you will. https://t.co/fAxJLgfbgr