Bushels 🌾 Barrels 🛢 & Bullion 💰

It’s almost all royalties, which rise with the gold price. However, gold mining costs will rise further thanks to rising diesel prices among other inflationary factors. But an industry average AISC of $1800 is extremely attractive at $4500 gold. https://t.co/Uvb5ghGzDk

Diesel, copper, grains, LNG, rare earths, aluminum, fertilizers, zinc, tungsten, sulfur, bromine, and gold are all among the list of commodities that are either breaking out or approaching all-time highs. Not sure anyone’s realized we’re in the midst of a commodities super cycle.

I’m kind of in profit taking mode, waiting for a new opportunity. This game is won by mostly hitting singles and then swinging hard at the fat pitch. I actually live by the quote in bio and right now I’m trying not to be a pig. So, reducing refiners, energy, gold miners, copper miners, and lately adding to steel and aluminum names. But that’s low conviction so I don’t post about it.

A troll questioned my “track record” today and frankly I was a bit triggered. I’ve been money. Here’s what Grok summarized… Refining Oct 9, 2025: “If you’ve owned gold miners, I’d take those profits and buy copper miners… Maybe some energy, I like refiners.” You followed up in November noting it was already working, and kept highlighting refiners through 2026 (“just kept going,” “sticking with this trade”). Outcome: Refiners were among 2026’s biggest winners—often 100%+ YTD—on exploded crack spreads from Hormuz disruption. Early, high-conviction call. Gold-to-energy rotation The same Oct 2025 post rotated capital from gold miners into copper/energy/refiners. You stayed long energy equities through the war while remaining constructive on gold dips. Outcome: Gold peaked near $5,600 in late January 2026 then corrected ~28% to the $4,000 area. Energy equities delivered strong multi-leg gains. The relative shift captured the outperformance. Metals at the lows June–July 2026 (gold testing $4,000): You called gold equities “so cheap” even at those levels and on July 17 shifted “some exposure from energy equities to miners,” citing attractive valuations, washed-out retail, and copper/lithium/uranium. Outcome: Precious metals bottomed in late June near $4,000 and rebounded into August. Timely buy. Energy again You stayed long refiners/energy, then on August 5 rotated “back from miners to energy and fertilizers.” Outcome: Energy stocks had further upside legs as Hormuz tensions persisted after the temporary June MOU collapsed. Iran: no deal—invasion or Iran controls the Strait From late March 2026 onward you repeated the binary: “two potential outcomes… surrendering control of the Strait to Iran” or “boots on the ground.” Multiple posts: “I’ve said this over and over… Iran, through the IRGC, controls the Strait.” In August you noted proposed deals giving Iran control with “Told ya.” Outcome: Temporary mid-June MOU unraveled. No lasting deal, no full invasion. Iran retained significant de-facto leverage over the Strait—exactly the framing you held. Overall: Early refining preference, sustained energy exposure, metals dip-buy near the lows, rotation back into energy, and the repeated Iran call all lined up with the major moves and geopolitical reality. Solid, coherent commodity track record.

A troll questioned my “track record” today and frankly I was a bit triggered. I’ve been money. Here’s what Grok summarized… Refining Oct 9, 2025: “If you’ve owned gold miners, I’d take those profits and buy copper miners… Maybe some energy, I like refiners.” You followed up in November noting it was already working, and kept highlighting refiners through 2026 (“just kept going,” “sticking with this trade”). Outcome: Refiners were among 2026’s biggest winners—often 100%+ YTD—on exploded crack spreads from Hormuz disruption. Early, high-conviction call. Gold-to-energy rotation The same Oct 2025 post rotated capital from gold miners into copper/energy/refiners. You stayed long energy equities through the war while remaining constructive on gold dips. Outcome: Gold peaked near $5,600 in late January 2026 then corrected ~28% to the $4,000 area. Energy equities delivered strong multi-leg gains. The relative shift captured the outperformance. Metals at the lows June–July 2026 (gold testing $4,000): You called gold equities “so cheap” even at those levels and on July 17 shifted “some exposure from energy equities to miners,” citing attractive valuations, washed-out retail, and copper/lithium/uranium. Outcome: Precious metals bottomed in late June near $4,000 and rebounded into August. Timely buy. Energy again You stayed long refiners/energy, then on August 5 rotated “back from miners to energy and fertilizers.” Outcome: Energy stocks had further upside legs as Hormuz tensions persisted after the temporary June MOU collapsed. Iran: no deal—invasion or Iran controls the Strait From late March 2026 onward you repeated the binary: “two potential outcomes… surrendering control of the Strait to Iran” or “boots on the ground.” Multiple posts: “I’ve said this over and over… Iran, through the IRGC, controls the Strait.” In August you noted proposed deals giving Iran control with “Told ya.” Outcome: Temporary mid-June MOU unraveled. No lasting deal, no full invasion. Iran retained significant de-facto leverage over the Strait—exactly the framing you held. Overall: Early refining preference, sustained energy exposure, metals dip-buy near the lows, rotation back into energy, and the repeated Iran call all lined up with the major moves and geopolitical reality. Solid, coherent commodity track record.

Here’s what grok gave me: Refining Oct 9, 2025: “If you’ve owned gold miners, I’d take those profits and buy copper miners… Maybe some energy, I like refiners.” You followed up in November noting it was already working, and kept highlighting refiners through 2026 (“just kept going,” “sticking with this trade”). Outcome: Refiners were among 2026’s biggest winners—often 100%+ YTD—on exploded crack spreads from Hormuz disruption. Early, high-conviction call. Gold-to-energy rotation The same Oct 2025 post rotated capital from gold miners into copper/energy/refiners. You stayed long energy equities through the war while remaining constructive on gold dips. Outcome: Gold peaked near $5,600 in late January 2026 then corrected ~28% to the $4,000 area. Energy equities delivered strong multi-leg gains. The relative shift captured the outperformance. Metals at the lows June–July 2026 (gold testing $4,000): You called gold equities “so cheap” even at those levels and on July 17 shifted “some exposure from energy equities to miners,” citing attractive valuations, washed-out retail, and copper/lithium/uranium. Outcome: Precious metals bottomed in late June near $4,000 and rebounded into August. Timely buy. Energy again You stayed long refiners/energy, then on August 5 rotated “back from miners to energy and fertilizers.” Outcome: Energy stocks had further upside legs as Hormuz tensions persisted after the temporary June MOU collapsed. Iran: no deal—invasion or Iran controls the Strait From late March 2026 onward you repeated the binary: “two potential outcomes… surrendering control of the Strait to Iran” or “boots on the ground.” Multiple posts: “I’ve said this over and over… Iran, through the IRGC, controls the Strait.” In August you noted proposed deals giving Iran control with “Told ya.” Outcome: Temporary mid-June MOU unraveled. No lasting deal, no full invasion. Iran retained significant de-facto leverage over the Strait—exactly the framing you held. Overall: Early refining preference, sustained energy exposure, metals dip-buy near the lows, rotation back into energy, and the repeated Iran call all lined up with the major moves and geopolitical reality. Solid, coherent commodity track record.

If gold can hold $4,000 at these levels of real yields, I cannot imagine where we’re headed when they inevitably come down. It’s already clear the housing market cannot withstand 7% mortgage rates. The federal deficit cannot withstand the 30y above 5%. That means fiscal dominance. Inflation expectations up + nominal yields down = real yields crashing.

I’m shifting some exposure from energy equities to miners. I’m not bearish energy I just think the risk reward is less balanced. I think gold is defending $4k well, rates have peaked, and central bank demand is quite strong at these levels. I think retail selling is pretty washed out and gold equity valuations are as attractive as I’ve ever seen them. I think copper is holding up quite well against AI drama, whereas the equities have been punished very hard. I also like lithium and uranium equities.

Refiners never stopped working but now most of my E&Ps are back in the green too. I’m sticking with this trade. I still don’t think most are appreciating how consequential it is that the US has lost control of global oil trade. https://t.co/Gynz2UVAMc

Indeed, the world’s greatest post-bubble deleveraging and so far Gold has been the sole refuge for Chinese investors. Something worth paying attention to. https://t.co/g7rc71iXGM