Same Data, Opposite Conclusions: Bottoms Only Show in Hindsight (Part 1/3)
BTC hits $58K on June 30, down 53% from its $124K peak. LTH SOPR sits below 1 on 27 of 30 June days. Bulls call capitulation; bears see a 2022 replay.
View original →Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on BTC by @abstractryu on CryptoQuant since Apr 2026: not yet scored on BTC (as of Nov 11, 2026).
6 BTC calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 BTC calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @abstractryu to submit corrections.
Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
Same Data, Opposite Conclusions: Bottoms Only Show in Hindsight (Part 1/3)
BTC hits $58K on June 30, down 53% from its $124K peak. LTH SOPR sits below 1 on 27 of 30 June days. Bulls call capitulation; bears see a 2022 replay.
View original →Same Data, Opposite Conclusions: Bottoms Only Show in Hindsight (Part 3/3)
Bitcoin tags the 200-week MA in June-July 2026, and bulls and bears read it opposite ways. Only 2022 broke the bottom pattern. Size risk, don't call the bottom.
View original →Is a low SSR really dry powder? — Only 40.7% sits on exchanges (1/4)
Only 40.7% of stablecoins actually sit on exchanges—$59.55B of $146.4B total. SSR counts 2.5x more 'dry powder' than is immediately deployable. The exchange supply ratio swings 0.2-0.7, making...
View original →Is a low SSR really dry powder? — Adjusted, SSR is 28.1 not 11.5 (2/4)
Standard SSR of 11.5 masks reality—adjusted for exchange-only stablecoins, it's actually 28.1. That 2.4x gap means 'dry powder' is less than half what bulls assume. Exchange stablecoin share fell...
View original →Is a low SSR really dry powder? — Two biases the formula makes (3/4)
SSR is circular—when BTC rallies, the ratio rises automatically, explaining price with price. New stablecoin issuance hits the formula before it ever becomes a bid. Only historical extremes carry...
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