CRDOCredo Technology Group HoldingBullishCredo Technology Group Holding
6d ago
The Mispriced Upside On $CRDO
Credo has underappreciated growth drivers beyond AECs, implying mispriced upside.
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Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 24 directional calls by @asymmetricalbets on Substack: tracked, not yet ranked (below the accuracy-scoring baseline) (as of Oct 6, 2026).
The Mispriced Upside On $CRDO
Credo has underappreciated growth drivers beyond AECs, implying mispriced upside.
View original →This Unknown Neocloud IPO Has A Bigger Backlog Than Coreweave
Inside Nscale’s Plan to Grow From 55 MW to 10 GW Compute is the one thing nobody in AI can get enough of. Hyperscalers are pouring hundreds of billions into new capacity while frontier labs sign multi-year deals just to lock in supply. That’s why we’re looking at a company set to IPO at an estimated $30B valuation that’s already signed more than $100B in contracts. The company is Nscale. Two weeks ago, when we published our Anthropic playbook, we named Aker ASA as one of our top picks because of its ~27% equity stake in Nscale. We wrote that Nscale was “supposedly planning to IPO as soon as September,” and on September 18 it filed its S-1. Nscale calls itself a “full-stack AI hyperscaler,” but the gap between what it has today and what it’s aiming for is huge. The company currently operates 55 MW of live capacity and reports approximately 1.37 GW of active and contracted capacity. Its development pipeline could reach 10 GW by 2031. Nscale is a promising neocloud with an unproven infrastructure buildout, and its value depends on financing and delivering future capacity. Because of that, this article comes down to one question: Can a company with 55 MW live today deliver on a 10 GW timeline and become one of the most important compute providers in the world? Before we begin, this Substack is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Our writers may hold positions in the securities discussed and may buy or sell them at any time without notice. Table of Contents [1] What Nscale Operates Today [2] What Is Contracted [3] What Needs to Be Built [4] Active-Capacity Economics and Financials [5] Customers & Partnerships [6] NVIDIA Relationship and the Supply Chain [7] Software Strategy and the Anyscale Acquisition [8] Ownership and Management [9] Valuation Framework [10] Risks [11] Final Thoughts [1] What Nscale Operates Today In May 2024, the company spun out of Arkon Energy (an Australian crypto-mining infrastructure business). At the time, the business included data center sites in Norway, the US, and Australia. As of today, Nscale has five active sites with 55 MW of live IT capacity, and all of it runs on leased and colocation space. The active GPU fleet is 25,000 units, and the S-1 doesn’t disclose which GPU models are deployed. [2] What Is Contracted Across five active and 12 contracted sites, Nscale reports approximately 1.37 GW of combined active and contracted capacity. About 1 GW is planned for owned sites, with another 200 MW leased and 165 MW in colocation facilities. As of today, Nscale has 436,000 contracted GPUs, meaning customers have signed for this capacity, but the GPUs haven’t been deployed yet. Deliveries are beginning to ramp as sites come online with the bulk expected between late 2027 and 2028. The S-1 says its strategy of “focusing on data center ownership” will give it more control over cooling, power density, maintenance and hardware upgrades. Most of its contracted capacity (roughly 75%) is located at owned sites, but short-term active capacity is heavily dependent on colocation. [3] What Needs to Be Built Monarch, the West Virginia campus, accounts for 8 GW, or 80%, of Nscale’s stated 10 GW development pipeline. Monarch is a greenfield development, meaning Nscale must build the campus infrastructure from scratch rather than expand an operating data center. Power generation, data center construction, permitting, and interconnections are still in progress. The site covers 2,250 acres and is said to be one of the first state-certified AI micro-grid* in the US. Nscale picked up the site in March 2026 when it acquired AIPCorp. The first phase targets 2 GW gross by H1 2028, with the full campus scaling to 8 GW gross by 2031. The campus will generate electricity on site using behind-the-meter natural gas micro-grids. The Caterpillar equi
View original →From $69B to $148B: The AI Optics TAM Just Doubled
Goldman Sachs doubled its 2028 forecast in five months. We break down what changed, how 1.6T and 3.2T modules affect the market and, who can supply it. Goldman Sachs doubled its 2028 forecast in five months. We break down what changed, how 1.6T and 3.2T modules affect the market and, who can supply it. Optical industry has been one of those sectors, that we’ve been covering since the start of our Substack. Our first article was about “AI next supercycle”, going from copper, which is limited because of its physical aspects, and switching to photonics as more power efficient solution on longer distances.
View original →The Anthropic Playbook: What To Buy, When To Sell
Specific stocks related to Cerebras and SpaceX went on 100%+ runs right before these IPOs. In this article we disclose best companies you can own before Anthropic lists. Specific stocks related to Cerebras and SpaceX went on 100%+ runs right before these IPOs. In this article we disclose best companies you can own before Anthropic lists. Back in June, we wrote about Anthropic proxy play, naming three biggest beneficiaries based on their balance sheet and stake in the company. We also covered its revenue trajectory, funding rounds, and more.
View original →$CIEN: Record Quarter, Record Selloff
Data center interconnect leader with $10B backlog trades at six-month low despite record quarter (as of 2026-09-03).
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