Willy Woo

I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026. This is a data informed opinion which I hold lightly. Our internal models of investor flows put in a bottom on 24th December and has steadily strengthened. Typically it takes around 2-3 weeks for this to express itself in price, arguably this is taking place now (only held back by very short term overbuying on technical oscillators). Also promising is that paper based liquidity (futures markets) is coming back in after dying for months, just like it did mid 2021 which lead to a second top in the last cycle. So 98-100k needs contesting. Then if we get past that it’s a wait and see how ATH resistance fairs. But I remain bearish 2026 because in the broader picture liquidity flows have been waning relative to price momentum since Jan 2025. We are in the hot zone right now for the final stages when momentum has insufficient supporting liquidity. What would change my mind would be a massive influx of spot (I.e. longer term) liquidity in coming months to break the waning down trend. Worth keeping in mind a confirmed a bear market is not yet in place, which would be seen as increasingly negative flows out of BTC (a laggy indicator to a cycle top).

Japanese will have more incentive to buy BTC. Classifying as a financial product means the tax rate on BTC gains (or trading) goes to 20% instead of being the marginal income tax rate (43-55% if you earn >57k USD per year. Metaplanet will lose its tax arbitrage advantage over self custody BTC. Around 110 cryptos are also included, staking gains are taxed at the marginal rate.

Until orange climbs higher into 2026 and starts to weird non-cyclical stuff, this narrative on THE END OF 4 YEAR CYCLES is NOT supported by data. Flows into the BTC network declining according to past cycles. https://t.co/cpsm1e2Z4V

I think we get a short term pump for January (starting to see liquidity putting in a local bottom). But this chart (transactions and fees) looks long term (macro cycle) bearish, it's a ghost town out there. https://t.co/WnOwNI7Ru5

@dotkrueger Fred, I’m posting data that I hope will push the conversation towards resolving the issue sooner rather than later. If this is perceived as FUD then this is a religion. BTC will survive with or without your cheerleading or anybody’s opinion, least of all mine.

Yes outbound txs reveal the pubkey, standard HD wallet protocol of moving to new derivative paths mitigate. Apart from short range attacks which is another ~10 years further along. I’ve gone into these details in past posts. Those details don’t change message of usage trends I’m highlighting here, away from TR which reveals the pubkey. Zooming chart out to 2009 only reinforces the message of newer schemes always gains adoption, but loses the visual of TR breaking this trend which I’m focusing on. If you don’t understand these posts are long term supportive of the network I don’t have time to explain it to you.

"Quantum risk is 20 years away..." This misses the point. What matters NOW is whether investors see risk and are selling. PERCEIVED RISK is enough to stop adoption. https://t.co/DMlaMq20ze

Are users concerned over quantum? Since 2024, use of Taproot (the latest format) has declined from 42%→20%. I've NEVER seen the latest format losing adoption before. Taproot is Quantum Vulnerable, while older Segwit and Legacy are not. https://t.co/vQdRzmnD9X

@daveweisberger1 @ordinarytings North Korea as an example. Agree it doesn't kill the network, once BTC is through this event, that's when everyone comes back in, just like OGs did after 2014-2016 blocksize wars leading to the 2017 bull market.

@daveweisberger1 @ordinarytings The best path to capitalise is to load up short positions on cash settled futures markets, then move the cracked coins. The rogue actor does not need to reveal its identity, nor deal with the slippage.