Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 33 directional calls by @papi on CryptoQuant since Nov 2021: tracked, not yet ranked (below the accuracy-scoring baseline) (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Accurate In—Not enough data10+ calls, 6+ months required
Total Calls33Calls by sourceX0Seeking Alpha0CryptoQuant Verified Author0CryptoQuant33Other0A call is a post, idea, article or rating labelled bullish, bearish or neutral on a tracked asset.
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Total Bull/Bear267
Recent Calls
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NeutralBTCBitcoinBitcoinETHEthereumEthereum
6/1/2025 on
ETH Supply At Levels Last Seen During It's First Year
The supply of Ether held on exchanges is at levels last seen during its FIRST year in operation, 2015-2016.
Interestingly, while BTC also experienced a decline in supply since 2020: buoyed by a significant marketing push - its current levels have only returned to levels last seen in 2018, its ninth year.
Also both ETH and BTC are down around 30% in exchange supply from their 2021 highs, showing identical trends in supply contraction, aka inferred demand.
Despite Bitcoin's strong marketing presence from proponents like Saylor's "Strategy" and a newly pro crypto government in the U.S., and Ethereum's notable lack of marketing, ETH's fundamentals appear to speak for themselves, as demand continues to grow, with Ether steadily moving into long-term investor holdings at the same pace as BTC.
We saw the largest net outflow of BTC from exchanges since 2022, this past week.
The last time we saw outflows at this level was shortly after the FTX collapse. Corresponding with this outflow was a 3% drop in supply of BTC on exchanges.
Note that the next largest outflow during this period was last July, and nearly as large as what we saw this week.
Despite sentiment, big buyers are stacking on dips. Potentially a fund or institution.
Record Consolidation .. Do We Have Escape Velocity?
2024's Nope Zone is undefeated. For now. Will this time be different?
It is the first time on the 4d we saw successful price retest above Nope Zone. OI is very high, net flows are trending weakly bullish on spot, and neutral on derivative exchanges, ETF flows are bullish, but they also tend to be at key resistance (human psychology).
In my perspective, even if we don't breakout this time, we are getting very close. Any reject should be short-lived: ~$60k and mid $50s are both strong supports.
In any case, just keep stacking and forget about the short term noise.
Most on-chain metrics support the mid cycle consolidation thesis; and its an incredible consolidation and compression, you don't want to miss the explosive breakout when it finally happens. Dollar Cost Average into spot has been, and will continue to be your low risk friend.
Mt. Gox Dashboard & the Market's Ability to Absorb Mt. Gox Selling
There is considerable speculation about Mt. Gox Bitcoin flows and the associated market pressures. Combined with miner activity, Germany's selling, and prevailing negative sentiment, the Mt. Gox BTC will test the market's capacity to absorb BTC throughout Q3.
It's too early to predict the exact impact of Mt. Gox BTC. We need to observe the percentage of holders selling their BTC in the coming weeks to build a more accurate forecast.
This dashboard provides several insights:
1. Total Supply of Mt. Gox BTC: Approximately 33% of the total supply (~47,000 BTC) has been set aside for distribution.
2. Mt. Gox BTC Outflows: Logs BTC leaving their holdings, indicating preparation for distribution.
3. Mt. Gox BTC Inflows: Tracks any inflows to Mt. Gox reserves, which is rare but possible.
4. BTC Netflows: The net result of daily inflows and outflows, a crucial secondary metric indicating market absorption capacity. Recently, there's been an average net positive flow of around 150 BTC daily, indicating a weakly bearish trend with more BTC coming in than leaving exchanges.
5. BTC Total Daily Outflow: Raw outflow numbers suggest implied buying pressure. This has been trending towards bear market levels, correlating with bearish sentiment driven by Mt. Gox, Germany, and other uncertainties.
Final Thoughts:
Netflows currently suggest an inability to absorb significant BTC inflows. If large-scale deposits occur from Germany or Mt. Gox BTC holders, prices could drop into the $40,000 range or even the upper $30,000s in a worst-case scenario.
Looking purely at numbers, the market can't absorb significant more BTC inflows, but small sales, say a few hundred more a day, won't have a significant impact on price. OTC deals could also influence the trend.
Improvements in macroeconomic sentiment, such as recent promising US inflation data, or the upcoming Ethereum ETFs, could improve market sentiment and the capacity to absorb more BTC selling, suggesting a potentially bullish Q4-24.
This MPI Score Historically Precedes Major Upside for BTC
Summary: After the Miner Position Index (MPI), which measures implied miner sell pressure, reaches its cycle low— likely below 1.4— the bull run resumes. This process can take many months.
Post-halving is a challenging time for miners, as their struggle to adapt to lower rewards can produce volatility in miner flows, negatively impacting prices on shorter timeframes, which can produce or aggravate mid-cycle slumps.
Once the MPI stabilizes post-halving and reaches its lowest historic range (below 1.4), it correlates with the end of the mid-cycle slump. This is typically followed by a gradual, then parabolic, second half of the bull cycle.
Of course its not an immediate up-only, and other factors play into the timing and duration.
Also consider that Bitcoin is in the midst of a prolonged consolidation period post-halving, and such large consolidations typically lead to significant expansions.
We also observe inflation data declining at the end of a rate cycle, coinciding with a U.S. election where, for the first time, crypto is an increasingly bullish topic, and U.S. ETFs for BTC and ETH are finally approved.
All of these factors suggest an incredible and rare confluence of bullish conditions.
