Called $DOGE bullish on Sep 27, 2024: $DOGE rose 267% in 2 months.
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Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
accuracy score 58.9 on BTC over 99 BTC calls · 1,265 days of data · rank 72 of 141 BTC analysts (top 51.1% of the pool) · top 4.80% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide · v20r-multi-sparsepen-strong-ss12m-20261012, computed Nov 6, 2026 · Methodology →
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 99 directional calls on BTC by @RaoulGMI on X since Jan 2021: ranked #72 of 141 analysts scored on BTC by accuracy — in the Top 5% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide (as of Nov 11, 2026).
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Relative view by default: Raoul Pal leans one way on 98% of days, so a softer or opposite tone stands out against their usual stance.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @RaoulGMI to submit corrections.
Called $DOGE bullish on Sep 27, 2024: $DOGE rose 267% in 2 months.
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This is one of the first things I dig into in The Everything Code because you simply cannot understand the economy without it. After 2008 the world was left with a debt it can never repay, so the central banks do the only thing they can... they print the money to roll it, every year, and every year of that printing takes around 8% off the value of each dollar. Assets reprice against that. Houses, stocks, gold, Bitcoin... they all rise because there are more dollars chasing the same assets. Your salary doesnt. So if you earn a wage and dont own assets, you are getting poorer every single year. Nobody voted for it and it doesnt appear anywhere you can see it. But its a tax all the same, and once you see it, the rest starts to make sense... why the system feels rigged, why your parents path to wealth stopped working, and why the Exponential Age is the only way out.
View original →There isnt enough excess liquidity to fund the AI build out and push crypto at the same time... so it rotates. Weve seen it recently. The AI trade slowed down and Bitcoin went up. This is why tech stocks have had such a big run while crypto has been struggling. From my talk at @token2049 Singapore.
View original →Blockchains are the economic coordination substrate for all digital economic activity. Once you accept that, you have to accept that they’re vastly underpriced. Agents are going to do more of the buying, selling, negotiating and settling on our behalf, and its going to happen faster than anybody is ready for. This is the core of my Exponential Age framework, and my Everything Code framework is why it cant be stopped. Agents are machines. A machine cant hold a share certificate or read a mortgage deed. It needs everything it touches to be a token it can read, hold and move in a fraction of a second. So everything gets tokenised... stocks, bonds, property, money, contracts, data, energy, the lot. Think about everything in the world that isnt a token today… All of that WILL become a token and get priced onchain. And all that value will settle on the L1. These are the infrastructure substrate, which is a different thing to the applications layer that sits on top of them, and a different thing to Bitcoin, which is the store of value layer. At scale the L1s will run the whole global economy... and we wont even see it.
View original →Look what I dug up... the GMI Monthly from May 2014. We'd just held the first ever GMI Round Table, and a couple of members who'd backed a Bitcoin exchange in Singapore got up to talk. I was expecting something about payments. Instead they completely blew my mind. I went back to my desk and wrote that if you could record anything on an onchain ledger you'd have proof of ownership of everything... every insurance contract, every housing deal, every stock and bond... At the time that sounded ludicrous. Putting a stock on a blockchain felt like science fiction. What I understand now is this is far far far bigger than that. Agents are about to become the most active participants in the economy, and the only thing they can read, verify and trade is a token. So everything they need has to become one... money, identity, permissions, data, compute, political opinions, beliefs, information itself... Literally everything will be a token.
View original →My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forwards as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets The Everything Code (the need for more liquidity to fund it). As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply... there is signal in that... 1/ https://t.co/EvwnVW2q03
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