Raoul Pal

Blockchains are the economic coordination substrate for all digital economic activity. Once you accept that, you have to accept that they’re vastly underpriced. Agents are going to do more of the buying, selling, negotiating and settling on our behalf, and its going to happen faster than anybody is ready for. This is the core of my Exponential Age framework, and my Everything Code framework is why it cant be stopped.  Agents are machines. A machine cant hold a share certificate or read a mortgage deed. It needs everything it touches to be a token it can read, hold and move in a fraction of a second. So everything gets tokenised... stocks, bonds, property, money, contracts, data, energy, the lot. Think about everything in the world that isnt a token today… All of that WILL become a token and get priced onchain. And all that value will settle on the L1. These are the infrastructure substrate, which is a different thing to the applications layer that sits on top of them, and a different thing to Bitcoin, which is the store of value layer.  At scale the L1s will run the whole global economy... and we wont even see it.

Look what I dug up... the GMI Monthly from May 2014. We'd just held the first ever GMI Round Table, and a couple of members who'd backed a Bitcoin exchange in Singapore got up to talk. I was expecting something about payments. Instead they completely blew my mind. I went back to my desk and wrote that if you could record anything on an onchain ledger you'd have proof of ownership of everything... every insurance contract, every housing deal, every stock and bond... At the time that sounded ludicrous. Putting a stock on a blockchain felt like science fiction. What I understand now is this is far far far bigger than that. Agents are about to become the most active participants in the economy, and the only thing they can read, verify and trade is a token. So everything they need has to become one... money, identity, permissions, data, compute, political opinions, beliefs, information itself... Literally everything will be a token.

I don't trade (crypto or anything) a lot. I am a macro guy with long term horizons...I just add when the market is deeply oversold. I added more ETH at 1,650, SOL at 65 and SUI at 0.75 back on June 5th. Those "stink bids" were pretty decent for RV Pro and GMI members. All 43 GMI positions are +96% on average with a 67% winners vs losers. Its all crypto and tech (The Exponential Age thesis). Over the last 21 years my winners vs losers has held steady at around 65%. My "edge" is time horizon and secular trends with The Everything Code overlay. It's not complicated but it works for me.

My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forwards as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets The Everything Code (the need for more liquidity to fund it). As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply... there is signal in that... 1/ https://t.co/EvwnVW2q03

How do you value an L1? Well, take Ethereum for eg. Now imagine turning the switch off. All the stablecoins, DeFi, every L2, every NFT... everything built on it goes to zero L1s attract assets, capital and velocity because they are dense with intelligence. Ethereum has the most developers, its programmable, it has the whole ecosystem around it. Ive had the DCF argument so many times and its just nonsense... you're not valuing cash flows, you're valuing everything the chain secures. As we move into the Exponential age and the entire human economy plus a whole new agentic economy moves onchain, enormous value accrues in these base layers. It’s all so obvious…

Debasement drives everything. Nothing stops it until AI and robots replace population growth. Nasdaq has beaten the debasement rate by roughly 12% a year... a great asset to own, because tomorrow is always more digital than today. Bitcoin has beaten it by 89% a year. That's why crypto is the super massive black hole of asset allocation. It becomes the most powerful asset we've ever had. The greatest performing asset of all time. This is the crux of my Everything Code framework... why debt forces central banks to debase, why markets endlessly go higher, and why only tech and crypto beat it.

Debasement drives everything. Nothing stops it until AI and robots replace population growth. Nasdaq has beaten the debasement rate by roughly 12% a year... a great asset to own, because tomorrow is always more digital than today. Bitcoin has beaten it by 89% a year. That's why crypto is the super massive black hole of asset allocation. It becomes the most powerful asset we've ever had. The greatest performing asset of all time. This is the crux of my Everything Code framework... why debt forces central banks to debase, why markets endlessly go higher, and why only tech and crypto beat it.

Zcash is one hell of a chart... I'm still very long Sui, ETH and Sol too. Just kept adding all into the big sell offs and hold, comfy in spot and let the game play out over time. Patience in a secular trend almost always wins if you can manage your emotions. https://t.co/KxTnbfs1QH

This is a chart that I watch closely. Bitcoin got over two standard deviations oversold versus Nasdaq and is now sharply moving higher. Let's see but I think over time crypto should outperform the Nasdaq over time. Secular trends like this are super helpful in asset allocation https://t.co/ih4nBuPh9J

I just minted 5 "NOT ONE SATOSHI 137" by @Coldie which is now live on @TransientLabs. Minting now! https://t.co/ZVPrWiHkyv