CGONCG OncologyBearishCG Oncology

Yesterday on

CG Oncology, $CGON: I read Seedy19's post on X about his forecast for data in IR-NMIBC, HR 0.58 (his largest position ahead of a binary). Despite repeated testing, I am unable to replicate it. My modeling shows highest probability of hazard ratio around 0.70-0.75, which could lead to a fall of 7-10% in the stock price. I reviewed CG Oncology last month and decided to pass it, but reviewed it again today and am getting same results. If we see a dip, I will revisit to review it ahead of HR-NMIBC BLA. No position. #stocks #investing #biotech

DFTXDefinium TherapeuticsBullishDefinium TherapeuticsCMPSCompass PathwaysNeutralCompass Pathways

6d ago on

Updates on $CMPS and $DFTX after Usono NDA news $CMPS: Hold, but do not initiate new positions. Usona's MDD psilocybin NDA (reported Nov 2 but unconfirmed, also on a fast-track voucher) turns Compass's launch into a likely two-player race decided by price. My scenario value is about $7.57 (upside-to-downside 0.68×), so the 28% drop was roughly justified. What would make CMPS buyable. Either a price at or below about $6.50, or proof that Usona partners and prices close to Compass. Another trigger is Usona's drug substance proving to be Compass's patented crystal form, which would open the door to an injunction. $DFTX: Still Buy, but reducing DCF PT to $43, 29% upside, modest overreaction. I estimate the fair hit at 2.5–6% versus the about 10% drop. Usona competes only with its MDD program, not the lead GAD program, and an early psilocybin approval clears the regulatory path for the class. No position at present, not investment advice #stocks #biotech #investing

DRUGBright Minds BiosciencesNeutralBright Minds Biosciences

1w ago on

Bright Minds ($DRUG): should we buy the dip after FDA hold? Not yet; we're waiting for FDA's letter What happened: On Nov 2, 2026, FDA put a partial clinical hold on BMB-101's planned U.S. Phase 2 study in severe childhood epilepsies (DEE), citing toxicity seen in mice and too little pediatric safety and dosing data. The stock fell about 55%, from $54.98 to roughly $24.50. No patients can enroll in that study until the hold lifts. Trials in Australia continue. What we expect: Holds like this are usually lifted eventually; we estimate about a 65% probability. Fixing it will likely require a new juvenile animal study, which points to a 12–24 month delay. Meanwhile, Lundbeck's competing drug, bexicaserin, reports Phase 3 results around year-end 2026. How it compares: Edges: BMB-101 is dosed twice daily, versus three times daily for Lundbeck's bexicaserin (Phase 3). It has no measurable activity at the 5-HT2B receptor linked to the heart-valve risk of UCB's Fintepla (approved; €427M sales in 2025). In lab tests it is "biased," meaning far less β-arrestin recruitment, which may reduce drug tolerance over time. It also has early data in absence seizures, which competitors lack. Caveats: These edges come from lab work and an 11–17-patient open-label study with no head-to-head data. BMB-101 is now 3+ years behind bexicaserin. Stoke's zorevunersen (Dravet, Phase 3 data mid-2027) adds pressure. Valuation: The company holds about $215M in net cash, or roughly $21 per share. At today's price the market values the drug pipeline at only about $40M. Our scenario-weighted estimate of fair value is about $20 per share, with a range of $10 to $37. The stock is not clearly cheap at current levels. Our stance: We are not buying now. FDA's detailed letter (expected around early December) and the bexicaserin results will set the timeline. A pullback toward cash value (about $19–21 per share) or a favorable FDA letter could justify a small, risk-sized position. No position, not investment advice. #biotech #stocks #investing

GMABGenmabNeutralGenmabBCAXBicara TherapeuticsBearishBicara Therapeutics

1w ago on

Bicara Therapeutics ($BCAX): Hold, do not initiate at $9.85; probability-weighted value $7.40, 1-year PT $8.40 Shares fell 44% on Oct 28, 2026 after Genmab's rival EGFR drug, petosemtamab, cut the risk of death by 50% (HR 0.50) in a first-line head and neck cancer Phase 3. The result validates Bicara's approach, so we raise the odds that its ficerafusp alfa wins: 79% for the mid-2027 response-rate interim and 74% for overall survival after that. But FDA weighs drugs already approved when it decides, which cuts the odds of an early accelerated approval to 26%. The base-case launch moves to 2029, second to market, with an HPV-negative-only label (moat rank #4 of 10). The market took 72% off enterprise value (now about $228M; est. net cash about $452M, or $6.62/share). Our model fell only 18–30%, but it never supported the $17.48 pre-crash price. Today's price implies about 27% peak market share (about $1.16B in sales) versus our 22% (about $0.95B), and the risk/reward is skewed to the downside (convexity 0.23×). Scenario values: bull $29, base $6–8, bear $2. Buy triggers: We would start a position of 1–2% of NAV at ≤$7.00, near cash. Upgrade if any two occur: FDA confirms an accelerated-approval path, the full Genmab data show weakness in HPV-negative patients or on safety, or a strategic bid emerges. Exit if the mid-2027 interim slips, the company raises money below $8 with warrants, or its China-based manufacturer (WuXi Biologics) is restricted under Biosecure. No position, not investment advice. #biotech #stocks #investing

LITELumentum Holdings Inc.BullishLumentum Holdings Inc.

1w ago on

$LITE: modeling shows buyout price around $1200, range $1100-$1300. Long #stocks