Nzrocky

I'm going to share cycle top and bottom model here For ETH & BNB, cycle bottom is not in yet. How accurate of this model? You can view past cycle cases and plan yourself, of course this is not financial advise For bitcoin, my prediciton is a math equation: Cycle bottom = Cycle top / 6.18 (Why 6.18, hmmmm, you know what number is) $11k     

A lot of people are getting excited about Pi Cycle Bottom flashed, but when we check the price, it looks like Pi Cycle Bottom may be invalid this time Why? Because the price is higher than $17592, makes no sense to me. By the definition, bottom would be lower low, it can't not be higher than previous low. I will be very careful here, unless we see new low Come back to on-chain data, this is how they manipulate the market. It looks like they abandoned USDT, price action is completely dominated by USDC. I wouldn't be surprised if price rebounded the day after the CPI data released, they are too eager for exit liquidity in my eyes    

What we can see from USDC netflow? Smart money start buying when price drop to $25k, their average purchase cost is between $27,000 - $28,000, they've been accumulating for the last three weeks Not only that, the no. 3 whale also recently increased his holdings (this whale made nearly 20,000 bitcoin by buying low and selling high last year). I would say he's very smart and highly disciplined.   

According to stablecoin netflow, the market has given us the three best times to buy bitcoin. And the most recent one, money Inflows were the highest in two years.  

Very interesting to see for both Bitcoin and DXY, now it's time to watch ABC correction for DXY. I'm not expecting to see a massive pump for bitcoin, but the bottom is coming soon   

I have not observed much inflows since January 24th，there was a partial withdrawal, just a partial withdrawal, please note （See Exchange Net Flow Chart） Combined with USDT.Dominance Chart, I'm temporarily marking the USDT exchange reserve as a top (unless it breaks the previous high) The US.DOLLAR index is currently at a high level, as is USDT.Dominance chart, entering the 5% area, which usually indicates the bottom area for bitcoin's price in the short term (June 22 and July 20 last year, for example, and January 24 this year) All things considered, I think they are waiting for cheaper prices, but perhaps not for long.    

To be honest, I think there's a 25% chance of seeing prices continue to fall below $30,000. I'm not a policy expert, so whether a 50-point fed hike would be the trigger is not on my radar. If the price is to fall to $30,000, then the US DOLLAR index needs to continue to rise, as does the USDT DOMINANCE. See the chart below In my opinion, the more likely reason is that the global financial market crash. For example, U.S. tech stocks, in particular, are already in a bubble, according to the Shiller Pe Ratio. But overall, I personally remain optimistic that the bull market continues, 75% chance.    

This is not a good signal, see the chart below It's hard to describe the relationship between the two, but in general, when the usdt reserves reach their peak, and if the price of Bitcoin is also in high level, which means that the smart money sold assets, and price of btc tend to go down, people called distribution. And when usdt reserves fall, the smart money is gradually buying again, it's called accumulation. But don't worry too much, usdt dominance is not in dangerous zone, we are still safe, the price might pull back   

You have to admit it's a bullish sign, we may be entering the phase 2 of the whale game: disbelief Also, look at USDT dominance chart, if this pattern still in play, we might see new ATH in Q2, probably hit $70k ~ $80k After that, I hope to see price drop to $50k to $53k before we go parabolic, some old coins may want to sell during $70k ~ $80k    

The key reason is that Bitcoin doesn't flow out of exchanges enough to support the $100k level, 20% amount of outflow support price to hit $65k, it would take at least 15% outflows to see Bitcoin hit $100k at current levels.