BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin

7/25/2025 on

Negative Correlation between OI and BTC Price

It's unusual for BTC price direction and open interest to move in a negative correlation. Let's see what happens next.  

BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin

2/3/2025 on

When Market Overjoyed, Reassess Your Position

When the MVRV alert sounds, you should check whether you might be over-leveraged. If you've subscribed to the alert, you've had plenty of time to think it through.  

NeutralBTCBitcoinBitcoinUSDCUSDT

12/7/2024 on

60% Surge - Explosive ETH USDT Minting

Bitcoin is now a macro asset. Predicting its price movements based solely on on-chain+market data is almost impossible. However, the complex factors influencing it are encapsulated in one key indicator: the circulating supply of stablecoins. Bitcoin's liquidity primarily comes from BTC-USDT and BTC-USD (USDC) trading pairs. Even when ETFs acquire Bitcoin, while OTC deals play a role, most transactions occur within these pairs. Consequently, movements in the Coinbase Premium are also affected. What’s crucial here is that Bitcoin market makers still prefer "USDT." Therefore, an increase in USDT circulation implies a compressed signal of increased demand for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. If you had subscribed to this alert, you could have anticipated the explosive surge in demand since Bitcoin was at 70k.  

XRPBullish(Nuanced)

11/22/2024 on

Is South Korea Taking Profit on XRP?

XRP, a cryptocurrency beloved by Koreans, had 6.6 billion tokens stored on Upbit. Over the past few weeks, Upbit took profits on approximately 400 million XRP (worth $400M) during the rally. It seems like Koreans, who have waited patiently for a long time, might finally be reaping the rewards. Unlike in 2017, could this time bring a happy Christmas for Koreans? Or are they missing out on an even greater profit opportunity?  

NeutralBTCBitcoinBitcoinETHEthereumEthereumUSDT

11/21/2024 on

'ETH' Tether Matters

Study 'Is Bitcoin Really Untethered? (2020)'. Aside from the period when Alameda Research was Tether's largest customer (before 2022), the pattern of large amounts of ETH Tether being minted right before a 'buy the dip' scenario still holds true today. This includes significant chain-swaps (e.g., Tron USDT to ETH USDT) as well as outright minting. The reason behind this is unclear. It could be purchasing USD with USDT, or simply a 'market-making thing.' The important point is that this indicator acts as a leading signal.