BaroVirtual

As you can see from the chart, the net unrealized profit/loss index is forming a cup-and-handle technical pattern, which is expected to push Bitcoin into the target range of 130,000-160,000. In addition, in November 2024, Bitcoin successfully broke through the NUPL index's 365-day MA, which is also an optimistic signal in the medium and long term.  

Once again, there is no denying the strong correlation between Bitcoin price action and the stablecoin market cap. As you can see from the chart, every time the 60d market cap change values ​​peak, Bitcoin also peaks locally or globally. In this case, the encouraging factor is that the 60d market cap change has not fallen below its 60-d change-SMA, which indicates that the current correction is a knockout of weak hands from the market and a logical cooling before the further run.  

At first glance, the sell-side liquidity, in real terms, suggests that Bitcoin has reached its peak. Is this really so? I believe Bitcoin will get its first peak in March-April 2025 in the target range of 130,000-160,000, and the total capitalization of the crypto market will be about 5-5.5 trillion $. Sell-side liquidity inventory in real terms indicates that we are already close to the top, but its 30-day change supports the thesis that we still have room for growth by the spring of 2025.  

The steady decline in Bitcoin reserves across all crypto exchanges indicates that we are likely in the middle of a sustained bull run. Some market participants who have not properly accumulated Bitcoin earlier are likely doing so now, realizing that this is likely the last downward correction before another upward price surge. The current situation is roughly reminiscent of the period from March to November 2020, when exchange reserves declined. Then, in December 2020, when inflows to exchanges began to increase, Bitcoin experienced upward buying pressure, leading to a new price high in a short time.  

The position of the price chasers (7d and 30d MAs) indicates that we are seeing intense, healthy buying pressure on Bitcoin, which is a very positive signal. The issue is that the gap between the fast and slow chasers is 19%, and this, in turn, leads to 2 possible scenarios: 1) Bitcoin takes a sideways position in the $87,000-$93,000 range for some time and then continues its upward movement to the $104,000-$120,000 range. We observed something similar from February to March 2024. 2) Bitcoin corrects downwards to the $71,000-$77,000 range, and there is an intermediate healthy cooling of the market, and then the local upward trend resumes. We observed something similar in this case: - February 21, 2021 - January 8, 2021 - August 1, 2020 - May 7, 2020  

Generally, rising or high Coinbase premium values ​​due to intense buying pressure on Bitcoin are a good sign in the medium term. In my opinion, high premium values ​​are not very good in the short term, as, as a rule, a little later, this leads to a local downward movement of Bitcoin. It is worth noting that this is especially true when high premiums are combined with inadequate retail leverage setup and an excessive number of longs. Recently, this has been precisely the situation with positions on some Asian crypto exchanges.  

Whales currently hold around 670,000 BTC, which is the highest value ever. Undoubtedly, this is an optimistic long-term sign. As you can see from the chart, when whales' holdings are at a high positive value, Bitcoin tends to be in a sideways trend or locally moderately fall in price. This accumulation phase can be characterized as calm before the storm in the medium and long term. The real surge in Bitcoin growth begins after whales gradually reduce their holdings until they reach negative percentage change values. Finally, if the all-time price high between the US presidential elections and November 28 (+/- 21 days) is not updated, this will indicate severe problems with the current bull cycle, and things will get ugly.  

Unsurprisingly, the lion's share of the ERC-20 token activity is Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC). This does not arise only because these tokens are among the most liquid but also because there is still significant uncertainty and fear in the crypto market. Although Bitcoin showed a 7% increase in September, current events are causing anxiety among investors. One reason for this is the weak activity of retail investors. While institutional investors supported the growth, retail traders are not actively participating, which usually indicates a lack of enthusiasm and a slowdown in the long term. The Coinbase app, previously top-rated among retail traders, now ranks much lower in download rankings, highlighting weakening market interest. In addition, geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, increase investors' fear. At such times, they will always prefer to use safer assets such as gold and the most liquid stablecoins. Ethereum is also facing problems. The recent delay in the SEC's decision to launch the Spot Ethereum ETF Options has added to the uncertainty, affecting market sentiment.  

After the Korean Premium Index reaches a significant discount, BTC declines, and then, when the index reaches the range of 2 to 6, Bitcoin grows strongly in most cases. A similar pattern has been observed since September 26, 2024, which may indicate a potential recovery soon due to Korean retail investors' buying pretty strong. P. S. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  

I don't quite agree that this is a positive signal if institutional investors are no longer aggressively shorting Bitcoin. Perhaps this is good for the short term so the market can take a breath. However, the build-up of short positions is needed in the long term to fuel Bitcoin's growth. Moreover, CME traders have always been inclined to open short positions aggressively as the BTC price rises, pushing it to its maximum cycle peaks.