Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 2 directional calls by @sachi on CryptoQuant since Mar 2023: tracked, not yet ranked (below the accuracy-scoring baseline) (as of Nov 11, 2026).
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BTCBitcoinNeutralBitcoin
9/5/2024 on
Post-2024 Bitcoin Correction Strategy: Two Key Indicators to Identify the Next Profit-Taking Point
1. 2023 Bull Market and BTC ETF Approval
In 2023, the Bitcoin market experienced significant growth, with an accompanying surge in CME options open interest (OI) as market participants increased. During this period, investor interest in Bitcoin reignited, leading to a clear uptrend in OI.
Subsequently, the approval of a BTC ETF in 2024 brought even more institutional investors and new participants into the market. As a result, OI in the CME options market surged, greatly enhancing liquidity in the Bitcoin market.
2. Profit-Taking in March 2024
In March 2024, Bitcoin briefly reached a new all-time high, after which prices entered a correction phase. During this time, the Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) data showed that many investors were realizing profits, leading to a significant spike in NRPL. This indicates that in March 2024, many investors took profits, which temporarily increased selling pressure on Bitcoin.
3. CME Options OI Sustains Higher Levels Compared to 2023
Despite entering a correction phase after March 2024, CME options OI continued to remain at levels higher than those seen during the 2023 bull market. Typically, OI tends to decrease during price downturns or corrections, but during the 2024 correction, OI has remained at relatively high levels. This suggests that market participants still maintain a bullish stance on Bitcoin and are holding their positions.
The strong bullish sentiment regarding Bitcoin’s long-term outlook can also be inferred from the fact that OI has not fallen back to 2023 levels, indicating that confidence in the market remains robust. This implies that participants are likely positioning themselves in anticipation of the next bullish cycle.
Conclusion
Beginning with the bull market of 2023, the approval of a BTC ETF in 2024 had a significant impact on the market. In March 2024, Bitcoin saw a wave of profit-taking, with N
Was Bitcoin's All-Time High in March 2024 the Market Top?
In March 2024, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, leading many to question whether this marked the final market top. However, based on on-chain data analysis, it appears that March’s peak was likely an "initial top" rather than the ultimate one.
Looking at Binary CDD (Coin Days Destroyed), a key indicator of long-term holder activity, we can see that long-term holders did engage in profit-taking around March 2024. However, a crucial point to note is that Binary CDD has not yet reached the red zone, a level it historically hits before the final market top is reached. This suggests that there is still room for further upside in the market.
Moreover, current data shows that long-term holder activity is not particularly strong right now, and selling pressure from long-term holders has decreased. The absence of large-scale selling by long-term holders indicates that the market has not fully matured, and we are still far from the final peak of the bull market. Thus, while March’s high may have been an "interim top" that led to a temporary period of consolidation, it is not yet the ultimate peak of the bullish cycle.
The market appears to be in a "cooling-off" phase, adjusting both price and time. Once this phase concludes, another upward movement could follow. Before we reach the final top, we will likely see renewed activity from long-term holders, with Binary CDD reaching the red zone, signaling the next round of price adjustments.
Suplly in Profit (%) and Exchange Whale Ratio after half-life.
an interesting trend can be seen.
As the half-life comes to an end, the influence of miners gradually declines, and by 2024, BitcoinETF is launched, etc,
The influence of the price is more dependent on the Bitcoin ETF and CME in the U.S. market, rather than the influence of the exchanges, but it is an interesting trend to keep in mind.
Keeping in mind, the behavior of the whales of the exchanges is more informative than the behavior of the small caps.
Therefore we have to think about the 4 -Year Moving Average.
About the 4-Year Moving Average
The reason a 4-year moving average of price acts as support is that it shows the average trend of the market over a long period of time and market participants are more likely to recognize it as a significant level.
If we were to introduce a 4-year moving average for Supply in Profit (%), this would indicate “how much supply the bitcoin market has profited over time.
3. 4-year moving average of Supply in Profit (%) may provide support
MARKET CYCLE: The 4-year moving average could serve as an important level in the Bitcoin market cycle. For example, if Supply in Profit (%) is below the 4-year moving average, this is a phase of significant market losses and based on historical trends may be considered a rebound.
Deviation rate between BTC PRICE and Realized Price UTXO AGE BANDS
When will the price adjustment occur and how will the ceiling zone be reached?
These are topics of great interest to us at the moment.
It is a well-known fact that the price of BTC has been rising due to expectations for the approval of an ETF for BTC and ”HALVING” that is expected to arrive in April of this year.
As these fundamentals are factored into the price, a divergence between the current BTC price and the Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands will occur.
While we could draw the rate of divergence on a graph, we have created a document that will help you identify price adjustments and ceiling areas by looking at ”Deviation rate between BTC PRICE and Realized Price UTXO AGE BANDS” and ”BTC price RSI"
The table is colored intuitively like a HEAT MAP. By judging the difference between the TOP and the current price, it is possible to determine that the price is not yet in the ceiling zone. However, it is the ATH of November 2021 that troubles us the most. The area marked with an asterisk (*).
The price here seems to have been made by CME.
We also believe that the current price increase is also price formed by the CME.
The basis is the CME's Open Interest.
(From Coinglass below)
CME Open Interest
5.46B as of October 26, 2021
As of January 4, 2024 5.42B
The CME Open Interest on October 26, 2021 and today are almost the same level.
Therefore, it can be judged that the divergence in the * area is as heated this time as it was on October 26, 2021.
So, is now the ceiling area? Perhaps we should pay close attention to the price movement from the previous day when we know whether or not the ETF approval will be granted, and next we will be interested in the rate of decline after the price adjustment with a temporary top before ”HALVING”
An indicator of the strength of the trend against the price is displayed in the background of the price. The indicator indicates that the daily trend has not yet broken, although there has been a sharp drop in prices.
Looking back at the driving forces behind the recent price movements,
The Funding Rate was at a relatively low level (data not shown here) when physical buying (increase in coin base premiums) led to a sharp increase in OI by large BITMEX customers through market purchases, causing short-covering and a rise to 44K. The large BITMEX customers soon took profits, and when the Coinbase Premium declined and the profit-taking progressed, the FR rose to nearly 0.02, and longs liquidated, leading to the current situation.
Now, one of the interesting, but unnoticed, points is that FUND VOLUME exceeded the 200,000,000 threshold that the author has designated, even during yesterday's sharp selloff.
As long as the FUND is buying up bitcoin, even if a time adjustment progresses, the market environment is unlikely to lead to a major decline because the FUND may support the purchase.
