Burak Tamaç

High GBTC discount has been the tale since February 2021. The recovery of the BTC price from low 30s to high 60s did not reflect on the GBTC premium. One assumption was that the possibility of a spot ETF approval suppressed the premium. Yet, SEC rejected the spot ETF application by VanEck almost two weeks ago. The market might be relying on other spot ETF applications because this decision has not been affected the GBTC premium.  

- Estimated Leverage Ratio = no change - Funding Rate = no change - Derivative Netflow = no change - Spot Reserve = SUDDEN DECREASE It seems like the recent uptrend in Bitcoin is limited supply reserve driven. More demand will strengthen the trend even more.     

- Estimated Leverage Ratio = no change - Funding Rate = no change - Derivative Netflow = no change - Spot Reserve = SUDDEN DECREASE It seems like the recent uptrend in Bitcoin is limited supply reserve driven. More demand will strengthen the trend even more.     

Even though the ETH price has sharply increased since Sep. 28, All Exchanges Reserves have decreased. This is coherent with the long-term trend partially due to ETH 2.0 staking. When the demand side increases from retail and institutions, the inevitable supply shock will move the price upward much faster than anticipated.  

Despite breaking critical resistances on the way to 55K price for BTC, we do not see a sign of FOMO in the market from retail investors. Transaction count/address inflows are at the 40K price level. Retail investors' participation will be needed to push BTC price to break further resistances.  

Spot Reserves had consistently increased during the 2017 bull market. Yet, they have been adamantly decreasing since the beginning of the 2020-21 bull cycle. Why? I think this is a good question to understand the long-term prospect of the value of Bitcoin.  

The hashrate in the Bitcoin blockchain plays the most crucial role for Bitcoin: security. -The higher the hashrate increases, the more difficult it becomes for malicious attacks to disrupt the network. -The increase is believed to be coming from more clean energy sources, which helps alleviate institutions' energy and ESG compliance concerns.  

Despite the recent price volatility & drop in Bitcoin, Spot Reserves continues to decrease. In the long term, a decrease in Spot Reserves would likely push the upward price trend. Long-term investors should keep an eye on this data and stay patient.  

Spot Reserves always provide a solid long-term price projection. As long as this trend continues, long-term investors can ignore the noise in the market and feel comfortable for the future.  

All stablecoins in all exchanges reach an all-time high. Similar to the end of July FOMC meeting, it will take a couple of days/weeks for the market to price Fed's new policy update. Despite the initial optimism in the market, perception might change in the coming weeks. In general, dry powder in the exchanges is a good sign for the crypto ecosystem to prolong optimism.