Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭

I am only 34 years old. But I am an old man that doesn’t understand macro? Yields ⬆️ Oil ⬆️ $ ⬆️ => Equities 📉 Higher yields, higher oil, and a stronger USD moving together is often called the “three-headed monster” (yields + oil + dollar) precisely because the combination has historically pressured equities more than any one of them alone. But nothing happens. No volatility event. No dip. No nothing.

Equity Risk Premium gone in… 3… 2… 1… https://t.co/fH7XnmW8rY

The Regime Change Portfolio: What Works When the Rules Shift If the 2030s do rhyme with the 1970s, then the investment playbook of the last decade is not just suboptimal. It is dangerous. The buy-and-hold-the-index approach worked brilliantly when a handful of tech mega-caps drove returns in a disinflationary, low-rate world. But that approach carries enormous concentration risk when the macro regime shifts. In 1973–74, the Nifty Fifty — the mega-cap growth darlings of that era — fell 50 to 90 percent. They were wonderful companies. They just had too much future priced in. What works in an inflationary, deglobalizing, Fourth Turning world?

The bible. Genesis 41. The Egyptians gave us something else, too: the oldest market cycle ever recorded. In Genesis 41, Pharaoh dreams of seven fat cows devoured by seven lean ones. Joseph reads it as prophecy — seven years of plenty, then seven years of famine. It is, as far as we know, the first written description of a financial cycle. And remarkably, gold has obeyed it for as long as we have had data: it moves in seven-to-eight-year cycles, long stretches of advance punctuated by major setbacks, then renewal.

Chart 16a & b: The 30-to-40-year investment cycle — equities and commodities alternating leadership for over a century. The commodity up-cycle has begun. https://t.co/HGT5YGssyr https://t.co/OdrZOD1hg1

A cycle projection is not a prophecy. But when a two-century chart, a demographic wave, a geopolitical fracture, and the live tape all start telling the same story at the same time, the responsible thing is not to dismiss it as pattern-fitting. The responsible thing is to take it seriously enough to think it through, carefully, to the end. So that is what we will do. 1⃣First, the evidence — the prices, the books, the cycles, the flows. 2⃣Then the two additions that I believe complete the picture: the quiet, mechanical seller that demographics is about to introduce to this market, and the template — courtesy of Microsoft, of all companies — for how today’s leadership can end without a single dramatic day. 3⃣And finally the map: how 2026 to 2039 could actually unfold, and what to own while it does.

Gold vs S&P 500, indexed from the month Nixon closed the gold window And 22 more charts that will provoke your thoughts... https://t.co/6o612ro0eU https://t.co/OdrZOD1hg1

Every generation gets its bull market. Every generation eventually mistakes it for normality. - a stock market lesson I have learned studying the past. https://t.co/CNZB5wynG8

Hell of a multi-week base breakout, retest in low volume and re-break. $ARM #IBDPartner, chart by Marketsurge https://t.co/b5ZQHdSCqi

US households’ aggregate financial asset allocation — equities at 52%, A RECORD. https://t.co/6EOLWqTbpi https://t.co/7QnwrK285V